Possible Storm Surge Tuesday

[Phoenix of Hamble]

Its properly close to going over the walls, with the best part of an hour to go still yet.... the webcam is just a little too high to see clearly though.

 

[Habebty]

I've been watching the Wells Harbour Webcam, and it looks like the HW came about 1800 and stayed until about 2245. Now seems to be ebbing after reaching the top of the wall. Looks like the net effect of HW and surge there has been a HW stand for about 4 hours albeit at springs height rather than neaps.

 

[Cantata]

According to the current 'surge' above predicted over here towards the N.Kent coast, the combined height will still be well below regular HWS in this part of the world. The tide table height is barely above average HWN.

 

[Phoenix of Hamble]

Its within, what looks like 10cm of breaching the lock tops at Shotley.....

 

[Hydrozoan]

Sorry - deleted by Hydrozoan.

 

[sailorman]

Bif has shut the inner gates

 

[Phoenix of Hamble]

someone certainly has... might not have been Bif though!

Tide dropping now according to HHA tracker... very close to topping over at Shotley, so good news that its falling!

 

[sailorman]

Who ever it is they might drop the camera a tad

 

[sailorman]

[TABLE="class: gridRenderTable, width: 920"]
[TR="bgcolor: #3583B0"]
[TH]Time[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #00CCFF"]Value[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #99CC00"]Predicted[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #FFCC00"]Surge[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]22/10/14 00:10[/TD]
[TD]4.84m[/TD]
[TD]3.59m[/TD]
[TD]1.25m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]22/10/14 00:00[/TD]
[TD]4.87m[/TD]
[TD]3.67m[/TD]
[TD]1.20m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21/10/14 23:50[/TD]
[TD]4.87m[/TD]
[TD]3.74m[/TD]
[TD]1.13m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21/10/14 23:40[/TD]
[TD]4.89m[/TD]
[TD]3.79m[/TD]
[TD]1.10m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21/10/14 23:30[/TD]
[TD]4.88m[/TD]
[TD]3.82m[/TD]
[TD]1.06m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21/10/14 23:20[/TD]
[TD]4.84m[/TD]
[TD]3.83m[/TD]
[TD]1.01m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21/10/14 23:10[/TD]
[TD]4.79m[/TD]
[TD]3.81m[/TD]
[TD]0.98m[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Hydrozoan]

Surge still increasing on HHA tracker: 1.25m at 00:10.

But not the ~1.6m forecast here http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Felixstowe for midnight.

 

[pks1702]

Running around 1.5 metres up since midnight.

 

[wingdiver]

Still pretty high first thing this morning when LT was around half five at Ipswich.

 

[sailorman]

 

[sailorman]

Still pretty high first thing this morning when LT was around half five at Ipswich.

 

[sailorman]

the surge has dropped some 450m/m since 06.30

 

[Hydrozoan]

This graph shows that the surge did not increase as quickly as forecast by the NTSLF after the HW, nor reach as high a level as forecast afterwards. They say the typical root-mean-square errors of forecasts are about 10 cm, so I am guessing that 0.2m on either side of any individual forecast level is not unusual - but the crucial issue will of course often be precise timing in relation to HW. Anyway, good to know that our piles are shortly to be sorted!

 

[wingdiver]

Anyway, good to know that our piles are shortly to be sorted!

There seems to be a common theme around East Coast marinas since the Dec 2013 surge in that they have realised that a lot of the piles are not as high as they should be.

 

[sailorman]

There seems to be a common theme around East Coast marinas since the Dec 2013 surge in that they have realised that a lot of the piles are not as high as they should be.

NO wrong.
some bodged there`s upwards in a mad panic in the surge before that & failed to heed the warning until reminded by a berth holder on 5th Dec 2013 that a welder might be useful even though it was 17.00z

 

[sailorman]

the surge is now well down @ 0.53m

 

[Lucky Duck]

Some pictures from Southwold here, wonder if the new visitors's pontoons survived? http://www.eadt.co.uk/news/flooding_in_southwold_1_3816001?storyId=1.3815569