Possible Storm Surge Tuesday

Sad man that I am.....
I made myself a graph of what to expect
Because it does not coincide with HW at Harwich - I believe our boats to be safe this time
But - had it coincided then it would be worse than last time



t9ts80.jpg
 
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dennyjc said:
Sad man that I am.....
Click to expand...

Me, too - did you add on the predicted Lowestoft or Felixstowe surge? Adding the latter to Harwich predictions I get about 5m 30cm for HW this evening, compared with a figure of concern for Shotley of 5m 60cm - if I remember correctly what you posted last time?
 
Hydrozoan said:
Me, too - did you add on the predicted Lowestoft or Felixstowe surge? Adding the latter to Harwich predictions I get about 5m 30cm for HW this evening, compared with a figure of concern for Shotley of 5m 60cm - if I remember correctly what you posted last time?
Click to expand...
the last surge was around 6 m above chart datum so this one is a lot lower
 
wingdiver said:
Doesn't that show a huge surge at HW tonight though?
Or don't I understand the graph?
Click to expand...

The peak surge is predicted as ca 2.2 m (Felixstowe) but at ca. 0500 tomorrow, so it does not coincide with HW (if it had, it would have produced a HW prediction of about 6m - higher than the last big surge, which is what dennyjc said.

PS Slower fingers than sailorman. :) Actually, the last surge was around the 5m 60cm if I recall correctly - see my last post.
 
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wingdiver said:
Doesn't that show a huge surge at HW tonight though?
Or don't I understand the graph?
Click to expand...


My graph is for Harwich - made by adding the usual Harwich tidal predictions and Felixstowe surge predictions (near enough)
Yes
There is a positive surge effect during HW but the peak of the surge is after that
The predicted HW tonight is still a BIG one
...just not as big as the last event because the worst of the surge does not coincide with Harwich HW

It looks like the existing piles at Shotley Marina will cope
..... I had been wondering how to weigh down the pontoons to keep them on the piling
e.g. wheely bin full of water
 
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The surge last October (10th) was forecast by the EA as 2.51m AODN. For tonight's high water, they're forecasting 2.8m AODN, which is another foot of water.
 
From the EA site

Latest Information:


  • We are expecting high tide levels due to a combination of a tidal surge and high winds. We are expecting to issue this alert again for Wednesday morning's tide. The forecast high water is due at Harwich at 11:30pm on 21st October 2014. The predicted astronomical tide level is 1.89 m AODN. The forecast surge height is 0.91 m. The forecast tide level is 2.8 m AODN. The forecast wind direction is West North West. The forecast wind strength is force 7. mAODN is a standard measure used across the UK for height above average sea level. It is different to Chart Datum. We will continue to monitor levels closely and update this message as necessary.
    11:25 on 21 Oct 2014




Why the hell cant they use chart datums :rolleyes:
 
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