Missing yachtswoman in South west.

dt4134 said:
So you're saying you wouldn't sail on the Sat evening on a coastal voyage of less than 24 hours when the forecast indicated good weather but with a 6 or 7 coming in by the Monday evening?

You do realise that that approach would preclude almost all sailing in Scotland?
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Of course, you take my remarks out of context.

Mrs Unwin was single handed, (apparently) had little recent experience, in a boat just acquired, with no knowledge of what worked, what might not work. She made a short and probably quite rough passage to an anchorage that would have been uncomfortable to put it mildly instead of using the nearby harbour at Newlyn where she could have got some sleep.

The forecast probably indicated better weather when she should have been getting into the Bristol Channel. Prior to that the forecast was probably for strong (F5 or 6) SW wind on the nose, with against a west going tide coupled with an uneven bottom and with an uncomfortable sea following recent strong winds. There was little room for error or anything on the boat going wrong. She would almost certainly have made slow going past Land’s End that would have played havoc with her tidal calculations, no doubt assuming that she would get the east gaping tide up the Bristol Channel.

The impression given was that the urge to get to Bideford overrode good decision making in her particular personal circumstances, . Many of those taking part in this discussion will have plenty of experience, with experienced crews, well found, well proven boats that they know well and that are well maintained. I cannot comment on whether or not any individual should or should not have decided to go.

When making any passage, especially one round a difficult area with few bolt holes, I hope that most would take, time to make considered decisions. Accidents will occur, gear will fail but most will have made judgements carefully taking all relevant factors into account. In essence, most sensible, experienced sailors will minimise risk. On the face of it, from the various comments that I have had time to read, I think that she left little safety margin.

The point that I was trying to make was that I have seen too many decisions to go to sea being determined by a need to be at a given place X by a given time. That can all too easily be a recipe for disaster. Rallies are examples of pressures being to go to sea even when conditions are far from ideal. An imperative to get somewhere because marina places and dinner have been booked should not override good decision making. That is the lesson that I am advocating; certainly not over saution but a proper considered assessment of risk.
 
franksingleton said:
Of course, you take my remarks out of context.

Mrs Unwin was single handed, (apparently) had little recent experience, in a boat just acquired, with no knowledge of what worked, what might not work. She made a short and probably quite rough passage to an anchorage that would have been uncomfortable to put it mildly instead of using the nearby harbour at Newlyn where she could have got some sleep.

The forecast probably indicated better weather when she should have been getting into the Bristol Channel. Prior to that the forecast was probably for strong (F5 or 6) SW wind on the nose, with against a west going tide coupled with an uneven bottom and with an uncomfortable sea following recent strong winds. There was little room for error or anything on the boat going wrong. She would almost certainly have made slow going past Land’s End that would have played havoc with her tidal calculations, no doubt assuming that she would get the east gaping tide up the Bristol Channel.

The impression given was that the urge to get to Bideford overrode good decision making in her particular personal circumstances, . Many of those taking part in this discussion will have plenty of experience, with experienced crews, well found, well proven boats that they know well and that are well maintained. I cannot comment on whether or not any individual should or should not have decided to go.

When making any passage, especially one round a difficult area with few bolt holes, I hope that most would take, time to make considered decisions. Accidents will occur, gear will fail but most will have made judgements carefully taking all relevant factors into account. In essence, most sensible, experienced sailors will minimise risk. On the face of it, from the various comments that I have had time to read, I think that she left little safety margin.

The point that I was trying to make was that I have seen too many decisions to go to sea being determined by a need to be at a given place X by a given time. That can all too easily be a recipe for disaster. Rallies are examples of pressures being to go to sea even when conditions are far from ideal. An imperative to get somewhere because marina places and dinner have been booked should not override good decision making. That is the lesson that I am advocating; certainly not over saution but a proper considered assessment of risk.
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"and probably quite rough passage to an anchorage that would have been uncomfortable to put it mildly"

This information you got from?:confused:
 
franksingleton said:
Of course, you take my remarks out of context.

Mrs Unwin was single handed, (apparently) had little recent experience, in a boat just acquired, with no knowledge of what worked, what might not work. She made a short and probably quite rough passage to an anchorage that would have been uncomfortable to put it mildly instead of using the nearby harbour at Newlyn where she could have got some sleep.

The forecast probably indicated better weather when she should have been getting into the Bristol Channel. Prior to that the forecast was probably for strong (F5 or 6) SW wind on the nose, with against a west going tide coupled with an uneven bottom and with an uncomfortable sea following recent strong winds. There was little room for error or anything on the boat going wrong. She would almost certainly have made slow going past Land’s End that would have played havoc with her tidal calculations, no doubt assuming that she would get the east gaping tide up the Bristol Channel.

The impression given was that the urge to get to Bideford overrode good decision making in her particular personal circumstances, . Many of those taking part in this discussion will have plenty of experience, with experienced crews, well found, well proven boats that they know well and that are well maintained. I cannot comment on whether or not any individual should or should not have decided to go.

When making any passage, especially one round a difficult area with few bolt holes, I hope that most would take, time to make considered decisions. Accidents will occur, gear will fail but most will have made judgements carefully taking all relevant factors into account. In essence, most sensible, experienced sailors will minimise risk. On the face of it, from the various comments that I have had time to read, I think that she left little safety margin.

The point that I was trying to make was that I have seen too many decisions to go to sea being determined by a need to be at a given place X by a given time. That can all too easily be a recipe for disaster. Rallies are examples of pressures being to go to sea even when conditions are far from ideal. An imperative to get somewhere because marina places and dinner have been booked should not override good decision making. That is the lesson that I am advocating; certainly not over saution but a proper considered assessment of risk.
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The point I was trying to make is that the tabloid press invented the story of bad weather. I have a GRIB file from 1200 on the 13th Oct (Sat) that is still sitting on my computer that disputes the journalists' story. I don't have a copy of the forecast issued by the coastguard for Sat evening & Sunday. If you know of any means of finding that I think it'll be a useful contribution to the debate. Similarly I only know how to find the last 24 hours data from Seven Stones, which I believe to be the nearest relevant station. Data from that for Sat evening would be another useful contribution. I've seen no indication of a SW 5 or 6 forecast for that night. Scilly Pete has posted to say that the wind that night at the Scilly Is was northerly F4. The coastguard say there was a swell of 1.5m leftover from previous weather. Nothing we have points to bad weather being a factor.

Whether she was experienced enough, or was handicapped by rusty skills or a boat that was not in a suitable condition for the voyage is purely a matter for conjecture as we've had little reliable information on that. I've seen enough news stories over the years of yachtsmen getting in to difficulty on the delivery of a newly purchased yacht to know such a voyage is riskier than normal sailing. But there is a separate thread running on that subject.

Given that she left Falmouth upon purchase of the boat she'd presumably decided in advance to take it around to Bideford. From what the press say (for what it's worth) about the couple's financial situation there would've been no financial imperative to clear out of Falmouth to avoid marina fees. There doesn't seem to have been any time pressure and the weather window was as good as she was likely to get this time of year.

It appears she didn't get far enough for any delay in catching the start of the E going tide to be significant. In any event the passage to Bideford would involve more than a whole tidal cycle and if she was badly delayed then Padstow would have become a viable bolthole if she was passing it closer to HW.
 
dt4134 said:
The point I was trying to make is that the tabloid press invented the story of bad weather. I have a GRIB file from 1200 on the 13th Oct (Sat) that is still sitting on my computer that disputes the journalists' story. I don't have a copy of the forecast issued by the coastguard for Sat evening & Sunday. If you know of any means of finding that I think it'll be a useful contribution to the debate. Similarly I only know how to find the last 24 hours data from Seven Stones, which I believe to be the nearest relevant station. Data from that for Sat evening would be another useful contribution. I've seen no indication of a SW 5 or 6 forecast for that night. Scilly Pete has posted to say that the wind that night at the Scilly Is was northerly F4. The coastguard say there was a swell of 1.5m leftover from previous weather. Nothing we have points to bad weather being a factor.

Whether she was experienced enough, or was handicapped by rusty skills or a boat that was not in a suitable condition for the voyage is purely a matter for conjecture as we've had little reliable information on that. I've seen enough news stories over the years of yachtsmen getting in to difficulty on the delivery of a newly purchased yacht to know such a voyage is riskier than normal sailing. But there is a separate thread running on that subject.

Given that she left Falmouth upon purchase of the boat she'd presumably decided in advance to take it around to Bideford. From what the press say (for what it's worth) about the couple's financial situation there would've been no financial imperative to clear out of Falmouth to avoid marina fees. There doesn't seem to have been any time pressure and the weather window was as good as she was likely to get this time of year.

It appears she didn't get far enough for any delay in catching the start of the E going tide to be significant. In any event the passage to Bideford would involve more than a whole tidal cycle and if she was badly delayed then Padstow would have become a viable bolthole if she was passing it closer to HW.
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In my post no 170 I gave the inshore waters forecast for Sunday morning which was "The inshore waters forecast for 06-00 on Sunday was North 3 or less, backing west 4 or 5 and the seastate slight or moderate, occasionally rough in far west."

I believe that on Saturday the wind was generally N so her trip from Falmouth to Mousehole (and anchorage) would have been pretty calm, so not sure where/how Frank Singleton gets his info from.
 
Facts are scanty. Speculation is not, and tends to expand to fill the gaps....

I have it on reliable authority that the lady brought her boat INTO Mousehole and lay alongside for about 3 hours, before departure to the S and W. That suggests there was enough Height of Tide during that period.

One can only speculate why. Waiting for a favourable tide, perhaps.... In such circumstances I would have made myself a decent meal and prep'd some vacuum flasks with hot sustenance for the night passage to come. Perhaps the unfortunate lady did the same.....
 
I was fishing about three nm SW of Porthleven between 1300 and 1500 on Sat 13th. The wind was W 4, and a bit scuffly due to recent weather. That evening it became N or NNW 3 -ish. Mousehole would have been sheltered from the W wind, I imagine there would have been little sea, just a low swell in the anchorage. HW was 1550 at PZ.

She went from Falmouth to Mousehole on Friday, I can't remember what exactly the weather was, but I didn't go to sea becasue of it.
 
I've kept out of this, and am not into speculation. The main thing for me is setting off on any trip wihtout a confirmed knowledge of the condition of your vessel. We all know that when you buy a boat, all the wrinkles and niggles come out of the woodwork, and this isn't the first example of a fatality resulting from setting off as soon as a purchase has been made.

See here... http://www.maib.gov.uk/publications/investigation_reports/2006/pastime.cfm
 
dt4134 said:
Data from that for Sat evening would be another useful contribution. I've seen no indication of a SW 5 or 6 forecast for that night.
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I get these fed to my reader every hour (as well as from other stations) - very useful - I remember preparing to sail from Honfleur to St. Vaast and looking a Greenwich Lightship - and deciding that a F6 WSW was not what I wanted to beat into - but boy did we get back to Pompey quickly!

I digress. It would seem it was pretty windy (F5) early morning but this quickly died to nothing. As stated I have the hourly log if greater granularity is required.

Station 62107 - Sevenstones Lightship
October 14, 2012 0000 UTC
Location: 50.103N 6.1W
Wind Direction: W (270°)
Wind Speed: 2.9 knots
Significant Wave Height: 5.6 ft
Average Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.69 in (1005.5 mb)
Pressure Tendency: -0.05 in (-1.6 mb)
Air Temperature: 53.2°F (11.8°C)
Dew Point: 44.2°F (6.8°C)

Station 62107 - Sevenstones Lightship
October 13, 2012 1800 UTC
Location: 50.103N 6.1W
Wind Direction: W (270°)
Wind Speed: 11.1 knots
Significant Wave Height: 5.9 ft
Average Period: 9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.75 in (1007.3 mb)
Pressure Tendency: -0.03 in (-1.0 mb)
Air Temperature: 53.4°F (11.9°C)
Dew Point: 44.2°F (6.8°C)

Station 62107 - Sevenstones Lightship
October 13, 2012 1200 UTC
Location: 50.103N 6.1W
Wind Direction: NW (320°)
Wind Speed: 11.1 knots
Significant Wave Height: 7.9 ft
Average Period: 9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.80 in (1009.3 mb)
Pressure Tendency: +0.02 in (+0.6 mb)
Air Temperature: 53.4°F (11.9°C)
Dew Point: 40.3°F (4.6°C)


Station 62107 - Sevenstones Lightship
October 13, 2012 0500 UTC
Location: 50.103N 6.1W
Wind Direction: NW (320°)
Wind Speed: 21.0 knots
Significant Wave Height: 6.9 ft
Average Period: 9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.75 in (1007.5 mb)
Pressure Tendency: -0.01 in (-0.4 mb)
Air Temperature: 52.5°F (11.4°C)
Dew Point: 40.8°F (4.9°C)
 
I have the GRIB file issue at about 0600 on 13th October. I agree that it does not look too bad. But, you have to remember that GRIBs tend to underestimate wind by about one Beaufort and that the wind was slightly onshore. Close in she could well have had a F5 to 6. I have not checked the tidal streams but did rather assume that she had planned to use the W going to get round the corner and the E going up the Bristol Channel.

PS As I did say, in an earlier post, the wind I would have expected the wind to ecrease but be on the nose until she entered the Bristol Channel.

I do not have the forecasts issued by the coastguard although, if it would really help the debate, I might be able to obtain them. Like anyone who has ever been near to a “story” I am all too aware of the inadequacies of the press. Many of the points raised in this discussion have derived from the various versions. Taken at face value, the broker advised her not to go as did a Mousehole fisherman. Having some experience of the area and in light of the reported circumstances, I can understand their concern.

I must confess to being a little swayed by my own experience of taking possession of and delivering a three year old HR34 from a broker at Hamle Point. We left straight away for Dartmouth, a little over 100 miles. We were both in our 60s but were reasonably well experienced and had sailed in about 25 different boats over the previous 20 years including owning a boat.

The forecast was favourable up to F 5 to 6 but from a favourable direction. After leaving the Solent, we had options of Weymouth/Portland and Torquay/Brixham in case of mishap. We were well covered and anticipate no problems. I the event, several hours after leaving we found that the wheel-pilot did not work. Then in the dark, when we tried to take some rolls in the headsail, the gear jammed. As we were going like a train, we dropped the sail and sorted it out the following morning.

Nothing terribly difficult in our case. However, a singlehanded, not very experienced sailor would have been in some difficulty.
 
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franksingleton said:
I have the GRIB file issue at about 0600 on 13th October. I agree that it does not look too bad. But, you have to remember that GRIBs tend to underestimate wind by about one Beaufort and that the wind was slightly onshore. Close in she could well have had a F5 to 6. I have not checked the tidal streams but did rather assume that she had planned to use the W going to get round the corner and the E going up the Bristol Channel.

PS As I did say, in an earlier post, the wind I would have expected the wind to ecrease but be on the nose until she entered the Bristol Channel.

I do not have the forecasts issued by the coastguard although, if it would really help the debate, I might be able to obtain them. Like anyone who has ever been near to a “story” I am all too aware of the inadequacies of the press. Many of the points raised in this discussion have derived from the various versions. Taken at face value, the broker advised her not to go as did a Mousehole fisherman. Having some experience of the area and in light of the reported circumstances, I can understand their concern.

I must confess to being a little swayed by my own experience of taking possession of and delivering a three year old HR34 from a broker at Hamle Point. We left straight away for Dartmouth, a little over 100 miles. We were both in our 60s but were reasonably well experienced and had sailed in about 25 different boats over the previous 20 years including owning a boat.

The forecast was favourable up to F 5 to 6 but from a favourable direction. After leaving the Solent, we had options of Weymouth/Portland and Torquay/Brixham in case of mishap. We were well covered and anticipate no problems. I the event, several hours after leaving we found that the wheel-pilot did not work. Then in the dark, when we tried to take some rolls in the headsail, the gear jammed. As we were going like a train, we dropped the sail and sorted it out the following morning.

Nothing terribly difficult in our case. However, a singlehanded, not very experienced sailor would have been in some difficulty.
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Just as a matter of interest, how did you drop the headsail, were there any rolls in it at all?
 
alant said:
Just as a matter of interest, how did you drop the headsail, were there any rolls in it at all?
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Don't know how Frank did it, but Colin and I had to drop the genoa on his boat at the weekend after it jammed spectacularly, wouldn't go in or out. I took the sheets off, rolled up the free sail to try to stop it catching the wind (mostly successful) and manhandled the roll round and round the forestay, adding the newly released sail to my roll each time. When the last roll came off, Col released the halyard and down it came.

This technique will become less and less effective as boat size increases. One of the plus points of smaller boats - by comparison you are stronger.

Pete
 
Had a situation once where the furler jammed and so did the halyard, it had wrapped it's self at the top of the forestay (probably some time ago). Had to do the opposite and wrap the sail round and then tie it off. Seem to remember that was a very stressful day!
 
flawed_logic said:
Had a situation once where the furler jammed and so did the halyard, it had wrapped it's self at the top of the forestay
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That's what Col's had done at first, but fortunately in all our shaking and pulling and twisting we managed to free it such that the foil wouldn't turn but the halyard would run up and down.

Pete
 
franksingleton said:
I have the GRIB file issue at about 0600 on 13th October. I agree that it does not look too bad. But, you have to remember that GRIBs tend to underestimate wind by about one Beaufort and that the wind was slightly onshore. Close in she could well have had a F5 to 6. I have not checked the tidal streams but did rather assume that she had planned to use the W going to get round the corner and the E going up the Bristol Channel.

PS As I did say, in an earlier post, the wind I would have expected the wind to decrease but be on the nose until she entered the Bristol Channel.
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Looking at the reported departure time of 18.45 I suspect she did plan to catch the inshore tide around Lands End.

The data MarkLucas has posted from Seven Stones shows that the wind did die there late in the evening but there were still waves of 5.6 feet. As we all know, there can be a lot of variation over quite a short distance in light airs, but presumably conditions were reasonably similar off Lands End. Now I imagine that would've been a bit messy and more uncomfortable than a good F4.

Certainly in my mind I can see a MoB or disabling fall being more likely in those seas combined with a near calm, but that is just speculation.

I don't disagree with you in the least about the risks of taking a new boat straight out even if you're pretty experienced and, trying to be as fair as possible, there are question marks about how experienced she was in the first place and how recently she had been sailing.

What has irked me is that the press have painted is a picture of her departing into rough weather with the quay lined with weather-beaten old sea dogs all convinced to a man that she was going to her doom. The weather data doesn't support that.
 
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