Met Office Strikes Again

[Cantata]

Yet another decent sail aborted becaue of a Met Office weather forecast that has proved to be wildly wrong.
We were only set to go through the Swale to Queenborough with the club for a supper at QYC, and sail home today by same route, but yesterday morning threatened 7's and 8's so we naturally decided to go by car. This was despite misgivings about the forecast's accuracy, based on looking at the surface pressure charts and good old eyeballing the sky.
Actual wind around here on Saturday, 5 at the absolute most, 3-4 most of the time, sometimes even less.
During the night it was only 2-3, I know this because I was out on a CG job between 0200 and 0400.
This morning the 0600 forecast is saying 5-7, and right now (we'd have been back in our berth by midday anyway) it's 3-4.
I know they keep doing this, I've kept a careful eye on it all this summer, virtually every day the wind is significantly less that the forecast.
What are they up to? Are they adding a huge 'safety margin' all the time?
This weekend all the fully-automated forecasts like Windguru, Windfinder etc have been spot on so far....

 

[Koeketiene]

Don't know why they do it - gave up on the Met Office a few years ago after just one cancelled sail too many.

When sailing locally, I rely on Windguru or Windfinder, the barometer and eyeball MK I; when crossing the Channel I rely on Ostend Radio and/or Meteo France (very good!).

 

[Saguday]

Yep, beautiful down here in Somerset today, completely clear blue sky and 3-4 I would say

The Scots must be taking a heck of a pelting that's all I can say

 

[MoodySabre]

Even windguru was a bit OTT yesterday. A nice potter out from Maldon to Osea and a sail back. Mind you it's a bit more stable in a Thames Barge

And my aborted trip today - Windguru West Mersea and the weather station at Marconi bear no relation to each other

Should I go out tomorrow -probably not.

 

[MoodySabre]

What are they up to? Are they adding a huge 'safety margin' all the time?

I blame Michael Fish

 

[Pye_End]

Cantata - it was cadet day at HB yeasterday, and there was a spare dinghy! Took full advantage. Quite gusty, but flat calm. Great fun. Thought you might have been down there. Wind died during the afternoon from fun to not a lot. As you say, nothing as strong as forecast (fortunately for the kids).

 

[Peegee]

Me too !

Same with us Dick. Didn't go down to boat because of forecast........No doubt the Met Office forecast stats will be used in the future to show/prove that the dreaded MMGW is beyond doubt ! ......There not getting it right now and it wont be in the future.

 

[sailorman]

Same with us Dick. Didn't go down to boat because of forecast........No doubt the Met Office forecast stats will be used in the future to show/prove that the dreaded MMGW is beyond doubt ! ......There not getting it right now and it wont be in the future.

I had a great sail yesterday

 

[Cantata]

I had a great sail yesterday

Bah humbug.
Well, I'm going to try and raise this issue again. Don't hold your breath, though. Didn't get too far last time before the establishment closed ranks and swore that everything was just fine in the forecast department.

 

[surekandoo]

This is always worth a look if you are intending to sail in the Medway/Isle of Sheppey area:

http://www.iossc.org.uk/weather/

Doesn't predict but gives actual conditions & sea state.

Re: Met Office -are they frightened of being sued if they understate the forecast wind strength and someone has a horrid time in a boat? Nanny state!

 

[photodog]

I have to say I have three apps on my phone for weather,
Met check
Yachting weather
The met office


None of them, including the met office were showing more than 20knts or sO for today, so I dOnt know how they got force nine... Especially as there own domestic forecast was saying 20mph...

 

[Bru]

Well, we've been sitting on the pontoon at North Fambridge since Saturday morning and conditions up here have been pretty much as forecast. Breezy with strong gusts and occasional rain squalls. Definitely too much wind for us novices on a likkle boat!

 

[Phoenix of Hamble]

Like PD, we had a series of forecasts showing mid teens to low twenties of knots.... apart from the Met Office, which was suggesting wild and dangerous weather!

As we passed Dover in the small hours of Saturday morning, the shipping forecast on R4 was suggesting F7, as we motored along in 5kts at most and fog!

I still find GFS the most reliable model, and largely ignore the met office... it was pretty telling that I had to look up the times for the R4 shipping forecasts, as I couldn't remember them!

 

[ex-Gladys]

Had a nice sail Saturday out to the Bench Head and back in quiet conditions, BUT the Baro dropped 3mB between 1145 and 1500... Was doing other things yesterday (driving to Lymington to look at a boat for a friend) and it was very hairy down there, and driving back....

 

[Burnham Bob]

had a quick look - met office and wind guru seem to agree about today and tomorrow here in burnham and a glance at the current marina weather data seems to suggest they've got it right

certainly staying at home today amd tomorrow!

 

[Yeoman of England]

Cantata

 

[Yeoman of England]

Cantata
You of all people should know that the INSHORE WATERS FORECAST & UP TO 12 NAUTICAL MILES OFFHSORE does not necessarily apply to tiddly rivers and protected shores

Back on watch tomorrow after a glorious long w/e with the crew of LB 12-34

Keep in touch

Yeoman

 

[Cantata]

Cantata
You of all people should know that the INSHORE WATERS FORECAST & UP TO 12 NAUTICAL MILES OFFHSORE does not necessarily apply to tiddly rivers and protected shores

I of all people have observed the laughable inaccuracy of these forecasts when I have been 'up to 12 miles offshore', as well as when inshore and in tiddly rivers. All you have to do is read out the blessed thing, I bet you've sometimes looked out of the window and thought, hmmmm. Stop trying to undermine my cause! I am supporting yours after all...

 

[Pye_End]

I of all people have observed the laughable inaccuracy of these forecasts when I have been 'up to 12 miles offshore', as well as when inshore and in tiddly rivers. Stop trying to undermine the cause!

When you look at XCWeather and see big differences in forecast for say Manston and Southend, it looks as though the sheer size of the inshore area is just too big. Since the forecast gives the worst conditions over the whole of the area, you never know if a strong wind warning will give you a lovely F4, or a strong wind.

I agree with you - there has to be a better way.

 

[franksingleton]

Yet another decent sail aborted becaue of a Met Office weather forecast that has proved to be wildly wrong.
We were only set to go through the Swale to Queenborough with the club for a supper at QYC, and sail home today by same route, but yesterday morning threatened 7's and 8's so we naturally decided to go by car. This was despite misgivings about the forecast's accuracy, based on looking at the surface pressure charts and good old eyeballing the sky.
Actual wind around here on Saturday, 5 at the absolute most, 3-4 most of the time, sometimes even less.
During the night it was only 2-3, I know this because I was out on a CG job between 0200 and 0400.
This morning the 0600 forecast is saying 5-7, and right now (we'd have been back in our berth by midday anyway) it's 3-4.
I know they keep doing this, I've kept a careful eye on it all this summer, virtually every day the wind is significantly less that the forecast.
What are they up to? Are they adding a huge 'safety margin' all the time?
This weekend all the fully-automated forecasts like Windguru, Windfinder etc have been spot on so far....

Please, if you get a really bad forecast and not one where local effects are the do,inating factor, then write or send an email to the Met Office. Give them

• The text(s) of the forecasts.

• Where and when you did so ie the source..

• Where you were and what weather you experienced.

I have not sailed in UK waters since 2000 but have had to put up with French, Spanish, Portuguese, Italian, Greek and Croatian forecasts. My impressions are that the French and Spanish forecasts are about the same quality. Otherwise, the service is not so good (French) and distinctly worse (Spanish.) The other countries are distinctly worse in terms of forecast and delivery..