Met Office 10 Day Trend Forecasts - Good Stuff!

[LittleSister]

I've been enjoying the Met Office's 10 Day Trend Forecasts.

I find them informative and interesting, individually and as an ongoing series. They provide an engaging link between what's going on in the weather we'll experience now and in the offing, with an understanding of the wider forces that shape that weather and the application of models (Met Office and others) to gauge what is and might be unfolding. I particularly appreciate the care taken to explain the uncertainties. They're also of a length enough to get into some detail, yet no so long it's too demanding/tedious.

Reminds me a bit of the forecasts from a private forecaster who used to post on here and link to some of his output (forgotten his name. Weatherweb his company name?) but these are somewhat slicker.

I've been watch these on YouTube, but the same is available in other ways via electronic wizardry.

Here's the latest edition -

 

[Sandy]

Finding good weather forecasts is a joy. Some of the forecasts on the media are a joke, rainy showers was mentioned the other week. Just what is a rainy shower?

 

[FWB]

This was very good. Amazing graphics.

 

[justanothersailboat]

...Just what is a rainy shower?

One that's not trying hard enough - less rain(y?) than a rain shower? Or a shower of something that's not quite rain?

 

[franksingleton]

I've been enjoying the Met Office's 10 Day Trend Forecasts.

I find them informative and interesting, individually and as an ongoing series. They provide an engaging link between what's going on in the weather we'll experience now and in the offing, with an understanding of the wider forces that shape that weather and the application of models (Met Office and others) to gauge what is and might be unfolding. I particularly appreciate the care taken to explain the uncertainties. They're also of a length enough to get into some detail, yet no so long it's too demanding/tedious.

Reminds me a bit of the forecasts from a private forecaster who used to post on here and link to some of his output (forgotten his name. Weatherweb his company name?) but these are somewhat slicker.

I've been watch these on YouTube, but the same is available in other ways via electronic wizardry.

Here's the latest edition -

The Met Office does sometimes hide it’s light under a bushel. I get these through a routine press release that I get by email. Open to all. If you go to Met Office, Press Office, Weather and climate. You will see them there. The Met Office model only runs to 6 days but, of course, they use ECMWF- they are part owners of the centre. from time to time the BBC met presenters talk about the longer term using the same information but, of course, in less detail.

 

[Spirit (of Glenans)]

I would like the word "blustery" to be banned!

 

[RedFrog]

I came across this channel recently too. I also like the way they demonstrate the differences between different models.

 

[franksingleton]

It has all changed since I had to write formal scripts for BBC announcers. I shudder at some of the words used but, then, I shudder st some loose general terminology used by BBC staff..

 

[Motor_Sailor]

I like the Met Office 10 day outlook as well. I've subscribed on Youtube and that seems to be the easiest way to view them before I head down to the boat.

The thing I like most is the caveats and uncertainty that they express once they start talking about more than a few days ahead. Marked contrast to some of the Youtube cruisers who flick through the internet map based forecasts and say "Oh good - the winds go south at 3pm in a week on Tuesday. "

I think as the forcast days increase, the wind arrows on these Windy of PredictWind maps etc, should change colour or become smaller, or flicker about. to reflect the increasing levels of uncertainty. To have the map look identical in its appearance from 4 hours to ten days is clearly misleading for some.

 

[LittleSister]

. . . I shudder st some loose general terminology used by BBC staff..

That's nothing. I remember on an ITV forecast the presenter saying something along the lines of the band of rain was delayed, or late arriving, because it hadn't arrived as early as their previous forecast had predicted!

 

[franksingleton]

I like the Met Office 10 day outlook as well. I've subscribed on Youtube and that seems to be the easiest way to view them before I head down to the boat.

The thing I like most is the caveats and uncertainty that they express once they start talking about more than a few days ahead. Marked contrast to some of the Youtube cruisers who flick through the internet map based forecasts and say "Oh good - the winds go south at 3pm in a week on Tuesday. "

I think as the forcast days increase, the wind arrows on these Windy of PredictWind maps etc, should change colour or become smaller, or flicker about. to reflect the increasing levels of uncertainty. To have the map look identical in its appearance from 4 hours to ten days is clearly misleading for some.

The problem, to the user, of GRIB data or products is simply that they are what the computer says with no quality control, totally untouched by human hand, caveat emptor. As a (one time) forecaster, we used to say that the only certainty in any Weather forecast is the date - even then, only if you keep the pope and the primate of the Greek Orthodox Church apart. Any thinking user has to remember that. I get very annoyed (easily done) when I see claims of accurate prediction and claims about Weather routeing giving precise information on departure times etc. With these Met Office forecasts you are seeing information that an objective forecast cannot show.

My personal answer is to monitor forecasts daily, perhaps 12 hourly. I look for consistency over 3 or more days. If the situation is critical, I try to avoid going to sea without consistency. I find it better to use one model and look for consistency from day to day rather than trying to compare several models at one time. In any case, there are only 2 global models of any real use for cruising purposes, GFS and ECMWF. None of the others run long enough into the future. Bearung in mind, the delay before ECMWF is available, it can come down to just the GFS.

 

[LittleSister]

Amazing to think that our forebears would be heading out to sea in frail craft, time after time, with no more weather info than some half-baked folklore and a few prayers.

 

[franksingleton]

Amazing to think that our forebears would be heading out to sea in frail craft, time after time, with no more weather info than some half-baked folklore and a few prayers.

Indeed, and it was not that many years ago that all we had was the BBC shipping forecast. Barely more than 20 years ago, some experienced and influential yachtsmen were still arguing that BBCR4 shipping forecast was absolutely, fundamentally important to leisure sailors.
Times move on.

 

[LittleSister]

Indeed, and it was not that many years ago that all we had was the BBC shipping forecast. Barely more than 20 years ago, some experienced and influential yachtsmen were still arguing that BBCR4 shipping forecast was absolutely, fundamentally important to leisure sailors.

Yes, I well remember having to set the alarm clock for the early morning shipping forecast every day, an extra hour earlier because we were in the Netherlands or France, trying to stay awake as Sailing By droned on, blearily scribble down the most relevant bits of the forecast while trying to take in an impression of the overall picture around us, and then either put the kettle on and rouse the rest of the crew because the weather gods had smiled on us, or crawl back into my sleeping bag resigned to another day in port.

Halcyon days!

 

[RunAgroundHard]

I would like the word "blustery" to be banned!

Blustery is a good word, the very essence of onomatopoeia. I am currently at my boat on the west coast of Scotland, Loch Melfort and the conditions are blustery, 26kts, gusting 37kys, scudding clouds, rain showers.

My favourite weather word is smir, drizzly rain.

 

[LittleSister]

My favourite weather word is smir, drizzly rain.

Hence the name of the drink, Smirnoff - ideally suited to those long days trapped on board, plans called off, while it, er, smirs.

 

[franksingleton]

Yes, I well remember having to set the alarm clock for the early morning shipping forecast every day, an extra hour earlier because we were in the Netherlands or France, trying to stay awake as Sailing By droned on, blearily scribble down the most relevant bits of the forecast while trying to take in an impression of the overall picture around us, and then either put the kettle on and rouse the rest of the crew because the weather gods had smiled on us, or crawl back into my sleeping bag resigned to another day in port.

Halcyon days!

I wrote the RYA manual o the forecast and ran some courses trying to teach sailors how to draw a mini-synoptic chart and get more out of the forecast than the man wrote. Incredibly difficult. Now, we have computer output, much easier to use. The message I now give is still keep an ear on the shipping forecast and other GMDSS forecasts. They are, effectively a warning service to be read in the light of GRIB forecasts.

 

[Spirit (of Glenans)]

Blustery is a good word, the very essence of onomatopoeia. I am currently at my boat on the west coast of Scotland, Loch Melfort and the conditions are blustery, 26kts, gusting 37kys, scudding clouds, rain showers.

My favourite weather word is smir, drizzly rain.

I would prefer something more on the lines of " Force 6, gusting 7" ?

 

[Spirit (of Glenans)]

I wrote the RYA manual o the forecast and ran some courses trying to teach sailors how to draw a mini-synoptic chart and get more out of the forecast than the man wrote. Incredibly difficult. Now, we have computer output, much easier to use. The message I now give is still keep an ear on the shipping forecast and other GMDSS forecasts. They are, effectively a warning service to be read in the light of GRIB forecasts.

On the Glenans Irish Sailing Club annual instructor course in 2009, we were divided up into small teams of two or three, to perform a rotation of daily tasks related to the running of the course, one of which was to get up early, switch on the base VHF set, note down the Irish Coastguard weather broadcast and fill in the Synopsis and Coastal Station Reports, etc., on the big blackboard and map on the wall in the dining room.
It happened that this task, on the first day, fell to my team, and we duly complied, managing between the three of us to get all the details. Imagine our chagrin, later on in the week, when we discovered that the younger, more tech-savvy course participants weren't bothering to get out of their bunks to do the same job, but simply getting the necessary, information from the Met Eireann website, on their new-fangled smartphones?

 

[RunAgroundHard]

I would prefer something more on the lines of " Force 6, gusting 7" ?

I can now confirm that I have transitioned from Blustery, to boisterous , passed straight through it’s a bit windy, to blown a hoolie.

The rain has went from, it’s a wee bit of rain, to raining, passed through lashing and bucketing down and now it’s chucking it.

(-;

58kts maximum gust so far, and definitely now p&sh£@g it down.