Met Office 10 Day Trend Forecasts - Good Stuff!

RunAgroundHard

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Today on BBC News at 6, when the weather bulletin was presented, we were told that the wind was "digging" it's way south. Idiots.
 

franksingleton

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Blustery is a good word, the very essence of onomatopoeia. I am currently at my boat on the west coast of Scotland, Loch Melfort and the conditions are blustery, 26kts, gusting 37kys, scudding clouds, rain showers.

My favourite weather word is smir, drizzly rain.
As ever, can inject a serious comment about words. Some terms, mainly wind are defined internationally and are understood worldwide. Psrtly because of BBC and NAVTEX, there are strict limits on number of words in a forecast. For that reason the Met Office uses a strict vocabulary with some words having defined meanings. Texts are easily understandable to all. The French are far less constrained and their forecasters seem to have few constraints. As a result, even with some French, I can quickly get lost when using the VHF. Even online, I occasionally have to use Google translate. There are good safety reasons for a limited, if boring, terminology.
 

Spirit (of Glenans)

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As ever, can inject a serious comment about words. Some terms, mainly wind are defined internationally and are understood worldwide. Psrtly because of BBC and NAVTEX, there are strict limits on number of words in a forecast. For that reason the Met Office uses a strict vocabulary with some words having defined meanings. Texts are easily understandable to all. The French are far less constrained and their forecasters seem to have few constraints. As a result, even with some French, I can quickly get lost when using the VHF. Even online, I occasionally have to use Google translate. There are good safety reasons for a limited, if boring, terminology.
Met Eireann's forecasts can be similarly unrestrained in the use of language, but I had always supposed that they knew the distinction between "showers" and "rain", but today I was disappointed see in their forecast the inaccurate phrase referred to in an earlier post; " showery rain"?
 

Spirit (of Glenans)

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I can now confirm that I have transitioned from Blustery, to boisterous , passed straight through it’s a bit windy, to blown a hoolie.

The rain has went from, it’s a wee bit of rain, to raining, passed through lashing and bucketing down and now it’s chucking it.

(-;

58kts maximum gust so far, and definitely now p&sh£@g it down.
Enjoy?
 

zoidberg

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My favourite weather word is smir, drizzly rain.
Och, laddie! There's a lot o' that aboot.

I grew up ( some would contest that ) wi' ma mither decidin' if it was a schoolcoat day, or no. That was decided on 'Is it smirnn oot?'
I'm realising belatedly that the above was used as an active verb and not a noun.
Either way, one got 'fair drookit' wandering miserably to school.
 

zoidberg

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"And not doubt it will be stootting* off the road... "

There's posh... Morningsayd or Kelvinsaid Academy for "it's fair stoatin' doon oot thair, an' nae doot!"

Two of the more significant meteorological terms learning in my formative years down west at RAF ST Mawgan ( where Britain's most westerly Met Forecaster had his lair ), were 'Icing layer below 3000' feet' and 'Sucker gap'.

One didn't want to hear those in the same breath.
 

Boathook

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I've been enjoying the Met Office's 10 Day Trend Forecasts.

I find them informative and interesting, individually and as an ongoing series. They provide an engaging link between what's going on in the weather we'll experience now and in the offing, with an understanding of the wider forces that shape that weather and the application of models (Met Office and others) to gauge what is and might be unfolding. I particularly appreciate the care taken to explain the uncertainties. They're also of a length enough to get into some detail, yet no so long it's too demanding/tedious.

Reminds me a bit of the forecasts from a private forecaster who used to post on here and link to some of his output (forgotten his name. Weatherweb his company name?) but these are somewhat slicker.

I've been watch these on YouTube, but the same is available in other ways via electronic wizardry.

Here's the latest edition -
I have just watched the YouTube one and found it good. Are they available on the met office web site ? I looked and couldn't find anything.
 

Sandy

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"And not doubt it will be stootting* off the road... "

There's posh... Morningsayd or Kelvinsaid Academy for "it's fair stoatin' doon oot thair, an' nae doot!"

Two of the more significant meteorological terms learning in my formative years down west at RAF ST Mawgan ( where Britain's most westerly Met Forecaster had his lair ), were 'Icing layer below 3000' feet' and 'Sucker gap'.

One didn't want to hear those in the same breath.
Far too south for me, being a teuchter, but we have a clear diction up here. As 'TV John' from Hamish Macbeth would say.
 

franksingleton

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I wonder, as the BBC now get their forecast from MeteoFrance something is lost in translation?

From Google Translate. Digging is creusement in French. I am at a loss.
The BBC weather presenters are provided by MeteoGroup, formerly a European company with strong Dutch connections The firm, according to Wiki is now owned by the American firm DTN. However, their main source of forecast info is the Met Office, if you look at the Met Office rainfall/radar app you will see the same images on BBC TV. In any case, the Met Office is the UK Meteorological authority. The BBC has to issue Met Office warnings.
Of course, BBC weather presenters have access to all weather information available worldwide. However, not all there staff have a Met Office standard of forecaster training. I do have to question how much they really add to Met Office output - other than dress it up with odd words that would have brought a sharp reprimand from the Directorate in my time.
 

Spirit (of Glenans)

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The BBC weather presenters are provided by MeteoGroup, formerly a European company with strong Dutch connections The firm, according to Wiki is now owned by the American firm DTN. However, their main source of forecast info is the Met Office, if you look at the Met Office rainfall/radar app you will see the same images on BBC TV. In any case, the Met Office is the UK Meteorological authority. The BBC has to issue Met Office warnings.
Of course, BBC weather presenters have access to all weather information available worldwide. However, not all there staff have a Met Office standard of forecaster training. I do have to question how much they really add to Met Office output - other than dress it up with odd words that would have brought a sharp reprimand from the Directorate in my time.
The majority of the weather forecasts on RTE Television and radio, in Ireland, are Met Eireann meteorologists.
Some years ago, when RTE proposed phasing out their Met Eireann Weather Team and replacing them with photogenic "presenters" there was national consternation. The viewers and listeners wanted "proper meteorologists" As a result there was a compromise, with two-thirds of the weather presenters having Met Eireann as their main employer.
 

zoidberg

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The BBC has to issue Met Office warnings. However, not all there staff have a Met Office standard of forecaster training. I do have to question how much they really add to Met Office output - other than dress it up with odd words that would have brought a sharp reprimand from the Directorate in my time.

Harumph!
:cool:

I'd rather be snowed in with Carol Kirkwood than Michael Fish....
 

zoidberg

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The resident Forecaster at RAF ST Mawgan ( aka Newquay International/Cornwall ) was a great guy, and much appreciated. He gave a Met Brief to my Canberra squadron every morning at 0700hrs, which was essentially what Bracknell sent out. He 'wasn't permitted' to change the forecast, only modify it a wee bit in the light of local knowledge. He had a placard made up with the letters 'FKF&HR' which he'd slap onto the screen behind him, which meant 'Forty Knot Fog and Horizontal Rain'. That usually meant flying was cancelled and we would troop off for breakfast.

On better days, we would often know 'the Forecast' ( or TAF ) before he spoke, for if he turned up in shirtsleeves, it was going to be sunny and warm. If wearing a raincoat, then 'rainy'. And if he didn't turn up at all, it was foggy....

The squadron bosses - QFI, Flt Cdrs, The Boss - would sometimes ask him about the 'confidence' that could be placed in the Issued Forecast, for they had to make decisions about authorising sorties, and he'd often reply along the lines of 'oh, better than 40 percent', or 'not as high as I would like...'
We all knew that there could often be an 'alternative outcome' with a very slightly lower probability, but he wasn't permitted to discuss that openly. Those looking to go further afield - west of the Hebrides, for example - when fuel management would be more critical were able to follow him back to his office and ask him what 'signs and symptoms' to watch out for which would indicate which way the two main alternatives would pan out.

Being the most westerly Forecaster had advantages and disadvantages. Places further east, such as RNAS Yeovilton and RAF Lyneham, would often phone him up, ask what his/our current weather actually was, then publish that as their own updated local forecast modified by a couple of hours or so to accommodate the movement of the rain belt or clearance moving from the west. ( Edit: that's a trick I still do with NCI )

Our man couldn't do that, for prior to the advent of weather satellites there were then no Observers out to the west of his/our position. But.... he had two squadrons of military aircraft to some extent at his disposal. He'd sometimes ask that, if any aircraft were going off early could they perhaps climb out to height ( say, 30,000 feet or more ) out to the west or south-west, and radio back at 5000' intervals the outside air temperature, the visibility, cloud types and amounts, precipitation, local wind speed/direction and position. In effect, he had at his beck and call most of the benefits of a fleet of movable radio-sonde met balloons, or 'ascents'.

He used this valuable knowledge to good effect, advising when a 'clearance' of low cloud was likely to arrive and/or when 'the clag' would shut down or limit flying.

There was one further most valuable benefit; when I was heading off to join a boat for a weekend RORC Race, I could cadge a detailed, printed 'Route Forecast' with all the variables discussed. That was likely, at the time, the sole useful thing I was able to bring along.... save, perhaps, my laminated CONSOL chart with which I could get a 'fix' in any weather.
:cool:
 
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