I have seen some big variations in low water times at Chatham Lock when the low is in the middle of the day to mid afternoon. I failed to get to the bottom of why some tables were so poor as they usually quoted same source - but if you check against real time data some were up to an hour out. Low water 'curve' looks very flat when at that time of the day there, so perhaps some programs were picking up the start of the lowest water, and others different points along that (flat) curve.
I’ve exited Chatham MDL as crew on a mates boat that needed a whopping 2.4m to float.
The gauge in the lock read about 2.3m, my mate said something like ‘it’ll be fine let’s go…’ 10 seconds later we’re aground on the cill.
Apparently he thought the depth gauge would allow a little clearance rather than give an accurate depth.
My same friend would predict tidal heights to within an eighth of an inch based on the info obtained from his phone…’we can leave at 07.38 but not a moment before..allowing a fag paper under the boat.
Best to look at the direction of flow of the water IMO.