According to the pilot charts, you should expect a mean of WNW F4 with about 6% calms increasing to 8 % calms as you get west of the Greenwich Meridian. Gales are expected 3% of the time. Having lived in Gib' for several years, my recollection is that the wind blows generally eatish or westish through the Alboran basin according to whether pressure is higher in the Med' or the Atlantic. Pilot charts are a guide, but beware lies, damn lies and statistics!
Usually E or W depending on where the current depression might be.
Strictly speaking there are no "prevailing" winds in the Med, the weather is extremely changeable, very rapidly and wind directions are dependant on the coast your closest to as well as the position of the depression. However in the extreme W the wind, like the water flows in or out of the basin.
Hence the confusion and extreme irritablity of the waves who are in a constant state of uncertainty.
Don't try to work to windward in anything over a F5 - you'll soon find out why many prefer sailing in the saner waters of the Atlantic.
The fact is that it could be a balmy sunny day, or it could be a howling gale. The strange aspect of med weather is that majorca could be one of these, whilst southern spain is the other, on the same day. And they could both change over, sometimes (not often though) within an hour. It is not at all like the irish sea where weather patterns are far less flukey, rising and falling over some days, not hours. A wind can arise in the med as if a machine has been turned on, and drop just as quickly.
I would not worry about "wasting flights" - easyjet allows rescheduling of flights with faitl;y short notice, and the flight themselves in Jan are dirt cheap - 20 quid or so, and if you find yourself in the wrong weather you would def pay £20 to rewind and start again a week later. Look at med weather forecasts with <A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.windguru.cz/int/>http://www.windguru.cz/int/</A>
Best advice would be to make for the mainland soonest rather than go direct, via ibiza, then denia area, for maximum options to run to/back to a port if needs be.
The boat I usually sail (without my being on board, fortunately for me) left Gib for Palma on the 21st Nov, expecting a relaxing, easy passage. They did a stop-over in Almerimar, leaving early on the 23rd, with a nice force 3/4 forecast for the balance of the trip, expecting a couple of days at sea en-route.
In the event, they had a warning of a F7/8 with two hours notice, then spent two days just south of Formentera in a F10, making about 20nm progress during the day, and loosing 10nm whilst hove-to, at night.
That kind of progress seems ridiculously small, but I understand the seas were very challenging for the boat (a 60ft, centre-cockpit ketch), and the crew of two (both very, experienced, one ex-Navy with a YM, and the other an ex-Marine, and YM instructor), and pretty much right on the nose (as you would expect!), and short, steep, and *large*.
The wind managed to break the jammer on the Genoa furling line, thus unfurling the sail. During trying to re-capture the flogging sail, the UV degredation on the stitching on the sacrificial strip caused said strip to largely part company with the (otherwise very good) Hood Genoa. They did manage to save the sail.
The Hood staysail (which was what was actually in use at the time) suffered the same fate wrt the sacrifical strip, although again, the sail itself is fine...
The seas also wiped out the sprayhood, mainly due to UV degradation of the stitching, leaving (for the crew member on watch) nowhere to hide from the green water. (Again, the sprayhood is readily repairable).
Apparently, we now know *every single* source of water entry into the boat - the worst being the Lazarette hatches not sealing very well (it drains into the bilge - they were pumping every hour). We normally wouldn't get enough green water that far aft (60ft from the bow) to have a problem getting water into the Lazarette - it must have been really something.
During this, I had an email from the Marine Rescue Control Centre, Madrid, saying that, as they had been reported overdue, coastal stations had been trying to contact the boat for some hours, without success. I replied with crew and equipment list, and DSC MMSI number. Within an hour, I received another mail saying they had been contacted, and were safe, albeit in very heavy conditions.
They made it into Palma the morning of the 26th - not quite the nice easy sail they had been expecting...
...en-route they had just a couple of hours notice of what would probably be approaching survival condition is a smaller, or less capable craft (or crew).
...so when we read in the pilot books that conditions can change quickly in the western Med, I guess we should take notice!
Last year went from Alicante to Gib in early December. Apart from a few days without any wind, we had F5-7 W/SW on nose the whole time. For some reason, wherever you go in the Western Med it seems to be wind on the nose.
Why not ring Gib & check actual & forecast conditions.