Med boaters - will you get to your boat this year?

Clancy Moped said:
Spain has a large shipment of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine...... Now this!


'U.S. federal health agencies on Tuesday will call for an immediate pause in use of Johnson & Johnson's single-dose COVID-19 vaccine after six U.S. recipients developed a rare disorder involving blood clots, the New York Times reported, citing officials briefed on the decision.

All the six recipients were women between the ages of 18 and 48. One woman died and a second woman in Nebraska has been hospitalized in critical condition, the NYT reported.

The company's shares were down 3% before the opening bell.

The Food and Drug Administration, Johnson & Johnson and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment.

The move from the U.S. regulators comes less than a week after Europe's drug regulator said it was reviewing rare blood clots in four people in the United States who received th shot.'
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You stand a greater chance of a blood clot flying on an airplane. Or taking the pill. The world has gone bonkers. Totally agree with @Hurricane re the vaccine but coming back to my point re scaring the crap out of everyone, the danger is now manifesting itself in spades. The government has done its best to control the population with scare tactics and remove each of our ability to think rationally. Personally I had the AZ and I will have the second dose. I would not hesitate to have the JNJ jab if that is what i was given. It is a simple matter of rational behavior. And to answer @porto I am afraid they have not followed the science. They followed the science they wanted to follow. Ie Dr Neil and many others who have predicted utter doom. Consider this - apparently 35% of deaths have happened in care homes. Most all of these were avoidable, especially if the government had not listened to the science which said that hospitals would be overwhelmed so clear everyone out of hospital beds asap, thus sending sick elderly people with Covid back to their care homes only to wipe out all their mates. That leaves 86,000 deaths not 126k - given 35% were avoidable ie a one off Caused by poor policy. Of the 86k how many died because of Covid rather than with it? The definition is anyone who died of any cause within 28 days of testing positive and I know for a fact that Covid appears on death certificates of people who have passed away long after ie 3 months of having Covid. Bottom line the real death rate is way lower. this is not to minimise anyone’s death but when one looks at any issue you try to understand what is endemic and what is avoidable without shutting down completely. Now they have said that the chance of catching Covid outdoors is minimal almost to be irrelevant. This means that this summer there will be, like last summer, next to no CV even in Europe. It does not mean it is not coming back in the autumn. We need to learn to live with it.
 
Deleted User said:
Why are we surprised? The same people who are currently creating bogeymen to scare the population into following their Covid guidelines created bogeymen to scare the gullible half of the population into voting for their Brexit

The irony of course is that this piece appears in the Torygraph which rabidly supports one but not the other
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ERM ,it was more than half.
 
Science was acquired and followed by U.K. gov around Dec . 4 months ago .Look at the numbers of cases / deaths now .
Look forwards now ,Reaping up what happened in yr 1 is irrelevant.

The ability of known and unknown variants defeating the UKs antibodies for 1-1-17 B is a real unknown but real threat , that as I keep stressing in 6/8 weeks or so watching the EU numbers you / we will be able the call .

Just hang on to May 17 th or so for the call from gov and requirements to enter the EU .

What would you all do if the UKs rate / 100 k was 5 and France / Spain / Italy were 1000 +and rising and only 40 % vaxed by end of July ?
Still go ?

Clue is the % in 100 k rising = the virus has run away from the vax .

You can’t tell which way it’s gonna go .Just wait for the science to emerge ,It will .
 
Alicatt said:
Because those of us on the other side of the channel are still awaiting our vaccinations and do not know how long it will take to get them, it's a lottery here at the moment, my 90y father in law has had his first, my 62y sis in law has had both of hers, my 29y daughter has had hers, but 3 sons 1 daughter and ourselves have not had it.
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Wife got her invite for vaccination in a week or so, no sign of mine yet...
 
Cracks in the system... Ooops I slipped through one :)
With my wife getting her invitation today for getting vaccinated next week, we thought we better check up and see about myself as I'm a year older than her and have mild asthma, actually coming here to the dryer climate in Belgium I've hardly been bothered with my asthma.
So my wife got on the phone to check up and it was pillar to post as we went around the different departments, finally we got someone in Brussels that said Oh your immigrant dept. of the local govt have to compile a list of people in my situation ie. registered for residency but not got the card yet, and then put that list to the vaccination centre.
Called the delightful young lady at the dept. and she knew nothing about it, so she went to find out more, and so I'm now on the list for vaccination but still don't know when I'll get it :)
 
DavidJ said:
It’s just a small card filled in with a pen.... Not really a certificate but the record is on my surgery NHS app
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Everybody on the forum is looking for some form of unofficial official looking vaccine passport. Why not ask for a vaccine book from your GP or a travel clinic and get your doctor to stamp it for each dose
 
Fascinating to now see official statistics coming out re true deaths from Coronavirus, extending to those in hospital etc etc. basically we have grossly overstated deaths. This really matters in a supposedly free society. On top of this we now have Boris desperately changing his tune re why infections are down, apparently now not the vaccine but lockdown. Other than Porto who will be staying in Switzerland as he awaits the arrival of new variants, I remain of the view that med boaters will see their boats this summer.
 
Hooligan said:
Fascinating to now see official statistics coming out re true deaths from Coronavirus, extending to those in hospital etc etc. basically we have grossly overstated deaths. This really matters in a supposedly free society. On top of this we now have Boris desperately changing his tune re why infections are down, apparently now not the vaccine but lockdown. Other than Porto who will be staying in Switzerland as he awaits the arrival of new variants, I remain of the view that med boaters will see their boats this summer.
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I want to go to Scotland and see my properties, I've not been home since christmas eve 2019
 
Hooligan said:
Fascinating to now see official statistics coming out re true deaths from Coronavirus, extending to those in hospital etc etc. basically we have grossly overstated deaths. This really matters in a supposedly free society. On top of this we now have Boris desperately changing his tune re why infections are down, apparently now not the vaccine but lockdown. Other than Porto who will be staying in Switzerland as he awaits the arrival of new variants, I remain of the view that med boaters will see their boats this summer.
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I’ve always assumed that Britain over estimates the bad while underestimating the good and our neighbors do the opposite, in all matters. But can you provide a link to these figures my figures don’t show this
 
Hooligan said:
Fascinating to now see official statistics coming out re true deaths from Coronavirus, extending to those in hospital etc etc. basically we have grossly overstated deaths. This really matters in a supposedly free society. On top of this we now have Boris desperately changing his tune re why infections are down, apparently now not the vaccine but lockdown. Other than Porto who will be staying in Switzerland as he awaits the arrival of new variants, I remain of the view that med boaters will see their boats this summer.
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Hang on a min , counting deaths is / was nether an issue .There are so many different ways to use done by different EU countries it’s pretty irrelevant.

Whats the actual stat the decider is the hospitalisation of Covid patients .Was not long ago January ish where it reached 40000 + at its peak the UKs NHS .It’s now under a manageable 3 K .
You know the cancelling of lists re arranging wards + staff .Burn’t out Covid staff in tears all that kinda stuff .
Boris is not saying the reduction is down solely to lockdown only .Its a combo of the two the vax and lockdown while the vulnerable were vaxed .Hence 40 K to under 3 k hospitalised with a form of Covid , mostly 1-1-7 strain the “ Kent “

Nobodies preventing travelling until the variant picture emerges in the EU and there numbers start to look more less risky of bring back a vaccine defeating variant . Also it’s not clear yet if your antibodies against 1-1-7B are effective enough from any variants circulating in the EU .
We know about a symptomatic carriers and inevitably some even with test / quarantine or what ever due to the shear numbers 10s of millions of proposed punters , new variant virus will escape .Look at SE London current surge testing for a variant of the SA right now .

EU are currently finding that out in what is in effect a mass clinical trial if the vaccine for 1-1-7 B works with new variants floating around .

Australia are contemplating a zero tolerance Covid policy and thinking hard about all but banning foreign travel + strict severe quarantine measures on entry ..........After there vaccination programme due to end soon .

Currently the hospitals are bursting in Paris + other French regions , Germany and Italy , while emptying out in the U.K. .

Before flying you ought to know what’s circulating the dominant strain in your destination.
You ought to know how effective your antibodies for the 1-1-17 B are against the strains circulating in your intended area .
Obviously be prepared to quarantine on return .

But what you must not do is assume because you are vaxed against the dominant U.K. variant you will be safe .

As I say it’s all gonna unfold by mid June .Just keep watching the EU hospitalised numbers and marry that with % vaccinated .
If the % vaxed seems not to crash the hospitalised numbers ( like the U.K. ) then there’s a problem .....its starting to become ineffective.Ie as predicted the time delay = the virus has run away and another dominant variant has emerged .

it’s all to play for in the next 6/7 weeks .
Buckle up !


The beauty of the AZ and Moderna is its simple to adapt to new variants , but the min trials require 6 weeks before approval .

Ideal scenario is reduce U.K. hospitalised to what ever the nhs can cope with without draining other services , identify new variants with sufficient genomic capacity then adapt that the current AZ / Moderna vaccine and repeat the vaccination before the disease surges out of control.That way you will never need another lockdown .
Stay one step ahead with surveillance and vaccine adaptation.

Obviously there’s a limit on the surveillance / genomic testing .A certain ratio of testing / number of punters .

The greater the number of punters the greater the chance of its slipping through.
 
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Hooligan said:
. On top of this we now have Boris desperately changing his tune re why infections are down, apparently now not the vaccine but lockdown.
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The vast majority of the reduction in cases, hospitalisations and deaths so far this year is due to lockdown and not the vaccine - thats obvious I would have thought . Now we are coming out of lockdown we will see the full effect of the vaccine, cases will go up, but hopefully not as much as previous waves, and hospitalisations and deaths should be a much lower proportion of cases than we have seen in previous waves. If they are the same proportion as before then we have a problem.
 
Portofino said:
What’s this got to do with the proposed mixing of the uks vaxed against 1-1-7 B with the potential of undoing it if a vaccine defeating variants is brought back from the EU by a punter ?

The thrust of the article is questioning the speed of the UKs opening up .Not the UKs mixing populations with the EU .
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Hooligan was answering bouba who was asking for a source of data to back up the statment that the uk has been overstating deaths due to covid
 
Portofino said:
Hang on a min , counting deaths is / was nether an issue .There are so many different ways to use done by different EU countries it’s pretty irrelevant.

Whats the actual stat the decider is the hospitalisation of Covid patients .Was not long ago January ish where it reached 40000 + at its peak the UKs NHS .It’s now under a manageable 3 K .
You know the cancelling of lists re arranging wards + staff .Burn’t out Covid staff in tears all that kinda stuff .
Boris is not saying the reduction is down solely to lockdown only .Its a combo of the two the vax and lockdown while the vulnerable were vaxed .Hence 40 K to under 3 k hospitalised with a form of Covid , mostly 1-1-7 strain the “ Kent “

Nobodies preventing travelling until the variant picture emerges in the EU and there numbers start to look more less risky of bring back a vaccine defeating variant . Also it’s not clear yet if your antibodies against 1-1-7B are effective enough from any variants circulating in the EU .
We know about a symptomatic carriers and inevitably some even with test / quarantine or what ever due to the shear numbers 10s of millions of proposed punters , new variant virus will escape .Look at SE London current surge testing for a variant of the SA right now .

EU are currently finding that out in what is in effect a mass clinical trial if the vaccine for 1-1-7 B works with new variants floating around .

Australia are contemplating a zero tolerance Covid policy and thinking hard about all but banning foreign travel + strict severe quarantine measures on entry ..........After there vaccination programme due to end soon .

Currently the hospitals are bursting in Paris + other French regions , Germany and Italy , while emptying out in the U.K. .

Before flying you ought to know what’s circulating the dominant strain in your destination.
You ought to know how effective your antibodies for the 1-1-17 B are against the strains circulating in your intended area .
Obviously be prepared to quarantine on return .

But what you must not do is assume because you are vaxed against the dominant U.K. variant you will be safe .

As I say it’s all gonna unfold by mid June .Just keep watching the EU hospitalised numbers and marry that with % vaccinated .
If the % vaxed seems not to crash the hospitalised numbers ( like the U.K. ) then there’s a problem .....its starting to become ineffective.Ie as predicted the time delay = the virus has run away and another dominant variant has emerged .

it’s all to play for in the next 6/7 weeks .
Buckle up !


The beauty of the AZ and Moderna is its simple to adapt to new variants , but the min trials require 6 weeks before approval .

Ideal scenario is reduce U.K. hospitalised to what ever the nhs can cope with without draining other services , identify new variants with sufficient genomic capacity then adapt that the current AZ / Moderna vaccine and repeat the vaccination before the disease surges out of control.That way you will never need another lockdown .
Stay one step ahead with surveillance and vaccine adaptation.

Obviously there’s a limit on the surveillance / genomic testing .A certain ratio of testing / number of punters .

The greater the number of punters the greater the chance of its slipping through.
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In that case we’ll be pumping different vaccines into our bodies for ever more, from what I’m told by a very good bio/physicist the existing vaccines will work on all strains to some degree.
 
Chris H said:
In that case we’ll be pumping different vaccines into our bodies for ever more, from what I’m told by a very good bio/physicist the existing vaccines will work on all strains to some degree.
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Not “forever more “ until most of the Eu and wider world has got to grips with sone semblance of a vaccination program.
Next medium term for sure , and anyhow think flue vaccination for over 55 s etc , it’s no biggie .
Yes they do kinda” to some degree “ work but as I said earlier 87 %AZ and 94 % Pfizer effectiveness is enough for 1-1-7B , but it’s yet to be determined how effective, say 60, 50 40 % against the variants we know .
We are about in the next 6/8 weeks gonna find out by looking at the EU situation.

Obviously as I said with robust surveillance the plan is spot / detect further new variants and adapt the viral vector AZ / Moderna .Which the U.K. has by now sufficient domestic supply or will have very soon .

Thats the next EU problem the Pfizer vector is just too slow or will be to adapt.They thought like many on here and sorry to disappoint folks it’s was gonna be a one stop shop .Jab n go .It isn’t.That’s first jab is just the beginning of the journey not the end .

AZ Oxfords carrier vector was deliberately chosen for rapid adaptation.......further down the line .

Hence the today’s wishy washy Danish statement along the lines of “ we are banning the AZ for now but do not rule out having to use it in the future “ This is because if a Pfizer defeating new variant pops up , then the ( 6 week lead time ) AZ * will be the only game in town .

* J + J is copying the AZ vector so equally adaptable in a short use-full time frame .
Moderna is a viral vector easily adapted too .

So two ways you can take a harmless virus like the common cold and tack on genetic material that mimics your target virus in this case the 1-1-7 B the AZ , Moderna , J+J .
Your immune system is fooled into a antibody response which zaps the 1-1-7B in 87 % of case with one dose etc .
If there is a variant detected you only have to redo the tacked on bits once you have isolated them from the variants .Easy and quick .

The other way is to use neat but deactivated actual virus .Dead or deactivated sos not to produce disease but sufficient material to stimulate a favourable immune response .Often a better hence the Pfizer’s slightly 94 % efficacy .This is because there are no added , tacked on bits at the ends which might slightly confuse your immune response.
But and it’s a big but you need to manufacture or brew live virus or near as dam it then deactivate it without knackering its integrity.Bit like brewing beer or making wine , You don’t know until after all the effort is done if it’s any good ...tastes nice enough, or with this vaccine production has worked ,Hence the Pfizer roller coaster supply issues the EU are experiencing right now .

Imho the EU with the ( German/ US Pfizer )have backed the wrong horse .
Uk went virus vectoring the common cold route and so has the US J+J , fully aware of the variant threat and “ journey “ out .
Arguably the US has a foot in both camps .

Czech PM right now trying to re acquire un used Danish ( banned today ) AZ .As now FCS just get anything into peeps arms ASAP - EU .
 
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