alant
Well-Known Member
Its not simply just the wind strength, the tidal flow past Dover can be very strong, with accompanying bad conditions close in.
Liquid Vortex trial starts
- Thread starter jimi
- Start date
Its not simply just the wind strength, the tidal flow past Dover can be very strong, with accompanying bad conditions close in.
Pye_End
Well-Known Member
Whilst I would dispute that a skipper in such circumstances should rely on a single forecast for such an important action, I agree that the nature of the midnight forecast may be critical to his defense - assuming that Eastbourne was accessible in the conditions. If Easbourne was doubtful I agree with your previous comments - Newhaven, and he should have gone in there even with a 'later' in the 1700 forecast.
toad_oftoadhall
Well-Known Member
All of which supports CS's version that they planned to be in Dover about 6-7am before the F10 kicked off and *would have been* if a freak wave hadn't damaged the steering. Certainly pushing the weather window but CS freely admits that.
Simondjuk
Well-Known Member
I'm sure I've found historical data on the Met Office site in the past, but can't seem to do so now. I found the following on a site where someone records the forecasts though. I've no reason to think it wouldn't be accurate. (My bold):-
The Shipping Forecast > January 2nd 2012, 12:40 GMT
The Shipping Forecast issued by the Met Office on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency at 1240 GMT on Monday 2nd of January 2012.
The General Synopsis at 0600 GMT
Low 150 miles south of Iceland 961, expected 100 miles east of Iceland 969 by 0600 tomorrow. New Atlantic low, moving rapidly northeast, expected Malin 954 by same time.
There are warnings of gales in Viking, North Utsire, South Utsire, Forties, Cromarty, Forth, Tyne, Dogger, Fisher, German Bight, Humber, Thames, Dover, Wight, Portland, Plymouth, Biscay, Fitzroy, Sole, Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea, Shannon, Rockall, Malin, Hebrides, Bailey, Fair Isle, and Faeroes.
Viking, North Utsire, South Utsire, Forties, Cromarty
Southwesterly 5 to 7, backing 7 to severe gale 9 later. Rain or squally wintry showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Forth
Southwest, backing southeast for a time, 6 to gale 8, increasing severe gale 9 or storm 10 later. Rain or squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Tyne, Dogger, Fisher, German Bight, Humber
Southwest backing south 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 or severe gale 9 at times later. Rain or squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Thames, Dover, Wight, Portland, Plymouth
West or southwest 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 to storm 10 later. Squally showers, rain later. Good, occasionally poor.
Biscay
Westerly backing southwesterly, 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 or severe gale 9 later in north. Rain or showers. Moderate or good.
Trafalgar
Northwesterly backing southwesterly 4 or 5, but variable 3 for a time in south. Mainly fair. Moderate or good.
Fitzroy
Westerly backing southwesterly 6 to gale 8, increasing severe gale 9 at times later in north. Occasional rain. Moderate or good.
Sole, Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea, Shannon
West or southwest, backing south for a time, 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 to storm 10 at times. Rain or squally showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor.
Rockall
Westerly becoming cyclonic 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 to storm 10. Rain or squally wintry showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor.
Malin
Westerly becoming cyclonic 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 to storm 10, occasionally violent storm 11 later. Rain or squally wintry showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor.
Hebrides, Bailey
West or southwest, veering northwest later, 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 or severe gale 9 for a time. Rain or squally wintry showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor.
Fair Isle
Southwest 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 at times, backing east or northeast and increasing severe gale 9 later. Rain or squally wintry showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor.
Faeroes
Southwest 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 at times. Rain or squally wintry showers. Moderate or good, occasionally poor.
South-east Iceland
Cyclonic 4 or 5, increasing 6 or 7 at times. Wintry showers, squally at times. Good, occasionally poor.
Pye_End
Well-Known Member
He passed Beachy Head at 1am with 48 miles to go, and had averaged a bit over 6kn over the ground thus far. At 6am he was still underway and 12 miles to get to Dover. Dover was always more like 0730 to 0800. At 0600 - 0700 he would not have got into Dover - it was too dangerous, and he wasn't there.
The critical part of the process were the decisions to continue based on the forecasts available.
toad_oftoadhall
Well-Known Member
Agree & someone above made the rather good point that we don't actually know which forecast(s) he was giving most credence to. He had access to the internet for sure so he had a wealth of weather information to hand - not merely the inshore.
toad_oftoadhall
Well-Known Member
IIRC the YM article said he was within 1 mile (or was it one hour?) of Dover in a F8. I've no idea where they got that from. LV could have got into Dover in an 8.
Even so, nobody's arguing that Liquid Vortex plan was an especially good one. The dispute is whether or not they *intended* to be out in a ten. I maintain they didn't and were workign to a plan that they thought would get them in before the worst of the weather.
I think that will establish for us if they meant to be out in a F10 or not. The reporting has been so poor I've no idea what the critical issues for the jury are or even if the passage plan is a factor in CS's guilt or otherwise.
toad_oftoadhall
Well-Known Member
I think this is the one we're really interested in:
http://simonholliday.com/shippingforecast/issue/OTQzOTMw
Fisher, German Bight, Humber, Thames, Dover
South or southwest, veering west later, 7, increasing gale 8 to storm 10, perhaps violent storm 11 later. Rain or squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Wight, Portland, Plymouth
Southwest 7, increasing gale 8 to storm 10, veering west 6 to gale 8 later. Rain or squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Simondjuk
Well-Known Member
I disagree entirely. The forecast he had before departure made getting into Eastbourne potentially impossible. It warned him of the possibility of a F10 as early as 2300, which is before he was there at 0100 Tuesday. From before they departed, getting into Eastbourne was a gamble depending on how soon the weather worsened.
The later forecast, issued around an hour before they reached Eastbourne is as follows:-
The Shipping Forecast issued by the Met Office on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency at 0015 GMT on Tuesday 3rd of January 2012.
The General Synopsis at 1800 GMT
Low Southeast Iceland 968, expected 200 miles northeast of Faeroes 974 by 1800 Tuesday. Low 200 miles west of Shannon 978 expected Forties 953 by same time. High Trafalgar 1035 slow moving with little change.
There are warnings of gales in Viking, North Utsire, South Utsire, Forties, Cromarty, Forth, Tyne, Dogger, Fisher, German Bight, Humber, Thames, Dover, Wight, Portland, Plymouth, Biscay, Fitzroy, Sole, Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea, Shannon, Rockall, Malin, Hebrides, Bailey, and Fair Isle.
Viking, North Utsire, South Utsire
Southwesterly, backing southeasterly, 7 to severe gale 9, then backing northwesterly later. Rain or squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Forties
South 7 to severe gale 9, becoming cyclonic, then northwest later, severe gale 9 to violent storm 11. Rain or squally showers. Good, becoming poor.
Cromarty
South 7, becoming cyclonic, then northwest later, gale 8 to storm 10, perhaps violent storm 11 later. Rain or squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Forth, Dogger
South 7 to severe gale 9, veering west gale 8 to storm 10, occasionally violent storm 11 later. Rain or squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Tyne
South 7 to severe gale 9, veering west gale 8 to storm 10. Rain or squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Fisher, German Bight, Humber, Thames, Dover
South or southwest, veering west later, 7, increasing gale 8 to storm 10, perhaps violent storm 11 later. Rain or squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Wight, Portland, Plymouth
Southwest 7, increasing gale 8 to storm 10, veering west 6 to gale 8 later. Rain or squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Biscay
West or southwest 7 to severe gale 9. Rain or squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Trafalgar
Southwest 5 or 6, becoming variable 4. Showers. Good.
Fitzroy
Southwest 7 to severe gale 9, veering west 5 to 7. Occasional rain. Moderate, occasionally poor.
Sole
Southwest, veering west, gale 8 to storm 10, decreasing 7 later. Rain or squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea, Shannon
Southwest, veering west, gale 8 to storm 10. Rain or squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Rockall, Malin
Cyclonic, becoming west, severe gale 9 to violent storm 11, decreasing 6 to gale 8 later. Squally showers, rain at first. Poor.
Hebrides
Cyclonic, becoming northwest, 6 to gale 8, occasionally severe gale 9. Rain or squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Bailey
Cyclonic, becoming northwest, 6 to gale 8. Rain or squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
Fair Isle
Southwest 7, becoming cyclonic, then northwest later, gale 8 to storm 10. Rain or squally showers. Moderate, occasionally poor.
Faeroes, South-east Iceland
Cyclonic, becoming northwest, 5 to 7. Squally showers. Good, occasionally poor.
So he was offered the possibility of F11 as soon as 1215 on the Tuesday, around the same time as his ETA at Ramsgate if he planned an early lunch after an interesting arrival, and F7 increasing F10 along the way.
Simondjuk
Well-Known Member
Well, both are relevant IMO, as pointed out in my post above which crossed with yours.
Note that the F7 increasing F10 is not forecast for 'later'. Only the F11 is. That means that up to F10 was forecast sooner rather than later, whilst he couldn't have expected to be anywhere but still underway.
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Simondjuk
Well-Known Member
At the risk of repeating myself, to me, "Great F8/9 maybe even F10 Tue!!! At least it's from west so just run under storm jib!!! May even use Trysail!!!!" sounds like a crystal clear statement of intent.
westernman
Well-Known Member
PeterR
Well-Known Member
Where did this come from? Liquid Vortex was commercially coded. It must have had an emergency tiller. However, it would have been next to useless in those conditions. To use the emergency tiller with the wheel jammed they would have had to remove the wheel which would probably have taken longer than straightening it – even assuming they carried and could find the right socket. The bottom of the wheel runs in a deep trough in the cockpit floor with only a couple of inches clearance fore and aft. I have a similar wheel but would not attempt to use the emergency tiller if the cables to the wheel were intact, the emergency tiller has to stop short of the binnacle and is much too short to cope with those seas. Much easier to do what they did and straighten the wheel. If you cannot do it by hand all that is needed is a block mounted aft and a line to a winch.
The only use for a drogue in this instance would have been to stabilise the yacht under tow. This wasn’t the Southern Ocean where there might be a risk of pitchpoling and there is no suggestion that they were broaching. In the conditions they experienced a yacht like Liquid Vortex is much more stable and controllable running fast. (see post 96) Heaving to with a drogue out whilst upwind and uptide of the Goodwins would have been lunacy. I estimate she would have been running at a displacement speed of 8/9 knots with frequent surfs in the low teens. Running with a drogue would only have slowed her to about 5/6 knots but would probably have stopped the surfing and made her much more vulnerable to pooping.
jimi
Well-Known Member
Hmmm, Toady seems to be in danger of splitting hairs on exact timings of weather forecasts.
He seems to have overlooked 2 simple facts 1) they are forecasts not prophetic truth 2) timings of any forecast are notoriously difficult to get right.
Simple fact is that setting off on the passage with few ports of safe all weather refuge and with a 10 in a forecast was quite simply plain nuts.
He seems to have overlooked 2 simple facts 1) they are forecasts not prophetic truth 2) timings of any forecast are notoriously difficult to get right.
Simple fact is that setting off on the passage with few ports of safe all weather refuge and with a 10 in a forecast was quite simply plain nuts.
Old Dog
Active Member
Ref Tweet
If that was intent why did he not set or use storm sails? My understanding from when the incident happened he was under a No3 jib??
If that was intent why did he not set or use storm sails? My understanding from when the incident happened he was under a No3 jib??
alant
Well-Known Member
Has been known for people to use autohelm to steer, in lieu of an emergency tiller, which is not easy even in benign practice conditions. The autohelm ram would still be connected to the steering quadrant, so no problem (probably need engine running to maintain battery).
Pye_End
Well-Known Member
Interesting to see the S or SW in the midnight forecast. Perhaps there was sufficient S in the wind to make Eastbourne a no go port. Perhaps he began realising by then then not going into Newhaven was a mistake, but as has been discussed before the whole passage plan gave so few alternatives.
Old Dog
Active Member
Weather and timings!
Firstly not a defence of skipper or for that matter an attack on him, just observations on ongoing debate!
As I am sure most (hope all?) know
Imminent - Within 6 hours from time of issue
Soon - 6 to 12 hours from time of issue
Later - More than 12 hours from time of issue
More than 12? That can cover all the way to the end of the 24 hours. I for one have used synoptics to decide that weather may be happening later in the later if you know what I mean, especialy when backed up by info from some of the other forecast models.
There is clearly conciderable debate over what the weather was but there appears to be considerable suggestion that it came in quite late in the 24 hour period, especialy to the east of the area. On that score Inshore Waters Area 6 is over 100 miles from west to east, it can take several hours for weather to move that far and this was coming in from the west.
Someone also noted he had internet access, who out there uses the Marine Observations section of the Met Office (updated every hour) to keep track of what is actualy happening with incoming weather?
The info originaly published suugested that they had no problems getting to Eastbourne, and I have been in there in bad SW blow, hard work till just a few hundred yards out but not bad.
I have also just checked tide, it had turned with him by Beachy Head and was going to stay with him till 1000 so wind and tide together.
So maybe not the best decision ever but is it posible the info he had and the observations on actual conditions convinced him he could do it? Debate.
Final observation, the RYA suspended him for 3 months, shortest suspension/ban I have ever heard of? If RYA thought it was crimnal they could have taken his ticket for ever. So posible 2 years for bad judgment call on weather when even GBH does not get you that? Fair?
Firstly not a defence of skipper or for that matter an attack on him, just observations on ongoing debate!
As I am sure most (hope all?) know
Imminent - Within 6 hours from time of issue
Soon - 6 to 12 hours from time of issue
Later - More than 12 hours from time of issue
More than 12? That can cover all the way to the end of the 24 hours. I for one have used synoptics to decide that weather may be happening later in the later if you know what I mean, especialy when backed up by info from some of the other forecast models.
There is clearly conciderable debate over what the weather was but there appears to be considerable suggestion that it came in quite late in the 24 hour period, especialy to the east of the area. On that score Inshore Waters Area 6 is over 100 miles from west to east, it can take several hours for weather to move that far and this was coming in from the west.
Someone also noted he had internet access, who out there uses the Marine Observations section of the Met Office (updated every hour) to keep track of what is actualy happening with incoming weather?
The info originaly published suugested that they had no problems getting to Eastbourne, and I have been in there in bad SW blow, hard work till just a few hundred yards out but not bad.
I have also just checked tide, it had turned with him by Beachy Head and was going to stay with him till 1000 so wind and tide together.
So maybe not the best decision ever but is it posible the info he had and the observations on actual conditions convinced him he could do it? Debate.
Final observation, the RYA suspended him for 3 months, shortest suspension/ban I have ever heard of? If RYA thought it was crimnal they could have taken his ticket for ever. So posible 2 years for bad judgment call on weather when even GBH does not get you that? Fair?
Simondjuk
Well-Known Member
I don't know, that's the court's job to decide.
Old Dog
Active Member
Check what Almanac says about Newhaven! In SW rather than S or SE I would chose Brighton or Eastbourne in that size of boat with good engine!