Liquid Vortex trial starts

Pye_End said:
Interesting to see the S or SW in the midnight forecast. Perhaps there was sufficient S in the wind to make Eastbourne a no go port. Perhaps he began realising by then then not going into Newhaven was a mistake, but as has been discussed before the whole passage plan gave so few alternatives.
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Indeed. Or were they so far offshore and so far to the East at the point that they considered Eastbourne that turning to the north was looking a bit awkward in a sea running Eastish. In other words they'd alread left it too late. Or did they just fail to pick up the forecast. Or did they judge from the synoptics that the Shipping Forecast was OTT about the conditions or the timing?
 
Old Dog said:
Final observation, the RYA suspended him for 3 months, shortest suspension/ban I have ever heard of? If RYA thought it was crimnal they could have taken his ticket for ever. So posible 2 years for bad judgment call on weather when even GBH does not get you that? Fair?
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Agree but we don't actually know if the weather judgment is relevant to the trial. We haven't got anything other than a very vague idea of the charges. For all we know the MCA found irregularities with the Gas maintainance and felt that was endangering the boat and as paid skipper he was responsible. (Extreme but you take my point!)
 
jimi said:
Hmmm, Toady seems to be in danger of splitting hairs on exact timings of weather forecasts.
He seems to have overlooked 2 simple facts 1) they are forecasts not prophetic truth
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(sigh) Let me explain for you: Our only real clue as to intent was what actions they took with what current weather forecast. I think that passing Eastbourne with a Forecast that clearly stated 8-10 at exactly the time they'd be on their way to Dover strongly supports the view that they intended/expected to be out in 8-10.

I don't think leaving at lunchtime with a "possible 10" later in the forecast means anything at all. They could have stopped at Chichester FFS.

That's not splitting hairs.
 
toad_oftoadhall said:
(sigh) Let me explain for you: Our only real clue as to intent was what actions they took with what current weather forecast. I think that passing Eastbourne with a Forecast that clearly stated 8-10 at exactly the time they'd be on their way to Dover strongly supports the view that they intended/expected to be out in 8-10.

I don't think leaving at lunchtime with a "possible 10" later in the forecast means anything at all. They could have stopped at Chichester FFS.

That's not splitting hairs.
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It is, and if you don't think it is, you're an even bigger eedjeet than I've already taken you for!
 
jimi said:
Hmmm, Toady seems to be in danger of splitting hairs on exact timings of weather forecasts.
He seems to have overlooked 2 simple facts 1) they are forecasts not prophetic truth 2) timings of any forecast are notoriously difficult to get right.

Simple fact is that setting off on the passage with few ports of safe all weather refuge and with a 10 in a forecast was quite simply plain nuts.
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+1

When this came up on here first time just about any skipper of note* said they wouldn't have been out there ...


*of note - I wouldn't automatically trust the judgement of many people on here as I haven't met them personally - but you get a feel for it and iirc the vast majority agreed on the sensibility of the passage anyway.
 
mikefleetwood said:
I have been watching this thread with some interest. It is, of course, all way outside my experience.

However, I would be grateful if someone could clear up an aparrant inconsistency for me - much has been made in recent posts of the skipper's decision to set out into a f10, whereas previously it was being described as "forecast f10", then in the earliest posts the forecast was described along the lines of "f7, worsening later to f10". Where "later" was some 6 hours after the intended arrival at destination. Could someone please explain which was the correct forecast, and how accurate it turned ut to be?

You see, to my mind there's a world of difference between setting out, and planning to complete, a voyage in f7 - and, as recent posts seem to suggest, setting off into f01 - so which was it?
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My understanding is that:
- They departed about 14:30, having obtained a recent forecast giving "possibly F10 later".
- Said forecast was possibly the 1200 noon one, or earlier.
- "Later" in a forecast means "occurring more than 12 hours later than the time of issuance of the forecast".
- The above implies that a F10 was likely (OK, possible) around midnight or a little later.
- Given the above, shelter should be reached before 12 midnight, and with some margin. It wasn't. And I am not referring to the intended destination as shelter, but rather to one of the alternative ports.
- Therefore the intention must have been to proceed through the night despite the forecast, wth a F10 up the chuff, in the narrowest part of The Channel where wave conditions are exacerbated by shallows, tides, etc. ????

What ever were they thinking ??? That the F10 would not materialise ???

A forecast received whilst under way confirmed the F10 prevision, and a later report said "F11 imminent".

I think they got what they expected and thought they were ready for.

Events show that the expedition was not in conditions to make that passage as executed. By expedition I mean boat, crew and skipper, the combined unit.

The experienced one on that expedition was the skipper, and as skipper, only he is responsible for the decisions taken.

Events show that his evaluation that the expedition could continue was flawed. In what way(s) ???

The boat: OK -- it survived and seems to have performed correctly, if we overlook the furling problem.

The crew: most, if not all, seasick??? (or was there one OK -- the one on the helm when they were pooped and was injured as a consequence ???)

The skipper: Decided to sail through the night with just two functioning crew, the rest reduced to liabilities ??? Flawed judgement.

Plomong
 
alant said:
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090101160918AAKof9o
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Chan eil mi a' tuigsinn.

Wiki has very little credence in the academic world for references (and is usually quite good as a starting point), I am quite sure that Yahoo would be totally ignored.

I used the fairly generic term Celtic as a West Highlander; it is a word that was commonly used, but perhaps alant is a linguistics scholar and if so I'd bow to his greater knowledge of the subject as it is not my area of expertise. ;)
 
Camelia said:
Chan eil mi a' tuigsinn.

Wiki has very little credence in the academic world for references (and is usually quite good as a starting point), I am quite sure that Yahoo would be totally ignored.

I used the fairly generic term Celtic as a West Highlander; it is a word that was commonly used, but perhaps alant is a linguistics scholar and if so I'd bow to his greater knowledge of the subject as it is not my area of expertise. ;)
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No expert, but know that Irish 'Celtic' language (Goidelic Group), sometimes known as Q Celtic, spread from Ireland into Scotland, whereas British 'Celtic' language is different & is known as P Celtic (Brythonic Group).
 
The trial was only listed for 5 days and was still calling witnesses on Friday. It was not listed for today and no verdict is recorded in court documents so no idea what is going on.
 
Pete R said:
The trial was only listed for 5 days and was still calling witnesses on Friday. It was not listed for today and no verdict is recorded in court documents so no idea what is going on.
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Witness 12 was sworn in at 12.07 last Friday and that's the last we heard of them. Perhaps the jury have been taken out to see the scene of the 'crime' :eek:
 
Been away on the boat for a few days and find when I logged on that this one is still running! It seems to be so clear cut to me-with the limited knowlege of what REALLY happened available to most of us-and I am struggling with the fact that the operator of HL and his Skipper CS have any supporters at all. I have been in situations as a Motorsports Training Instructor and as Clerk of the Course where I have had to make a judgement to go ahead with a training session or race meeting or not. The decision affected many- up to 150-competitors or 30 trainees, a Club who had paid for the use of a circuit-not cheap-and the marshalls and officials. The bottom line was ,as always, the fact that I had a "Duty of Care" for the trainees and competitors. If I put them into hazzard by allowing training or racing to go ahead in adverse conditions it was me in the place where CS and JM are now, should anything have gone wrong. I spent a week with JM when I did my Dazed Kipper. He was a fine instructor and very competent. At the time he was employed by another Sailing School as instructor. The difference to his later situation was that he was not the one responsible for paying the bills and finance payments on the training boats. It is possible that this pressure upon him as Principal of HL affected his judgement in respect of his companies Duty of Care. Note I said possible. It is proper and correct that this sad incident is examined and a conclusion drawn, penalties exacted if required and recomendations made for the guidance of others. In my opinion, of course.
 
Simondjuk said:
At the risk of repeating myself, to me, "Great F8/9 maybe even F10 Tue!!! At least it's from west so just run under storm jib!!! May even use Trysail!!!!" sounds like a crystal clear statement of intent.
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Sounds like he was well aware of the possibilities to me rather than a clear intent to be out in a storm. If he wanted that he could have delayed his departure by 12 hours. Personally I read sarcasm rather than enthusiasm in the first sentence.
 
alant said:
No expert, but know that Irish 'Celtic' language (Goidelic Group), sometimes known as Q Celtic, spread from Ireland into Scotland, whereas British 'Celtic' language is different & is known as P Celtic (Brythonic Group).
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Interesting, that.

SWMBO speaks Irish and I speak Welsh. We find lots of words have similar sounds, although different spellings as different groups of letters are used to achieve the sounds. Both branches use incomplete alphabets.

The differentiation in the languages predates Roman times but Welsh retains elements of Latin also found in Breton and French. Nevertheless the differences between Welsh and Irish are less than the difference between either and English I think.

But this is thread drift...
 
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