Liquid Vortex trial starts

[Juggler7823]

The wheel was folded around the binnacle, how would an emergency tiller help? You would have to disconnect all the wheel cables for it to work & that might not be easy in those conditions.

They only had to take the wheel off. One big nut. A simple job.

 

[Mark-1]

They only had to take the wheel off. One big nut. A simple job.

Bending the wheel back was probably simpler and quicker so Searush is right AFAIC.

 

[Simondjuk]

Bending the wheel back was probably simpler and quicker so Searush is right AFAIC.

It took two people to straighten it by pulling and heaving. One person can remove the wheel in seconds with no exertion whatsoever.

 

[duncan99210]

And the nut usually has a socket to take a winch handle.....

 

[mikefleetwood]

You've never had a voyage take longer than expected, then, or the wind stronger, or changing sooner, than forecast?

I already said that this was way outside my experience - that's partly why I was asking.

As far as I can understand it (although my original question remains unanswered) the entire trip was completed in f7(ish), even after the delay to evacuate crew and fix the steering, such that the skipper was able to complete the trip as far as Ramsgate single handed (although, again there are inconsistencies in what people have posted).

 

[Pye_End]

However, I would be grateful if someone could clear up an aparrant inconsistency for me - much has been made in recent posts of the skipper's decision to set out into a f10, whereas previously it was being described as "forecast f10", then in the earliest posts the forecast was described along the lines of "f7, worsening later to f10". Where "later" was some 6 hours after the intended arrival at destination. Could someone please explain which was the correct forecast, and how accurate it turned ut to be?

You see, to my mind there's a world of difference between setting out, and planning to complete, a voyage in f7 - and, as recent posts seem to suggest, setting off into f01 - so which was it?

Liquid Vortex set out at 1430, so the 1200 shipping forecast F10 later would have then been valid from the following midnight. Later means 'after 12 hours' and the passage to Dover was in excess of 16 hours. The weather seemed to worsen from 0400, so in terms of timing this seems consistent.

The 1800 forecast I cannot find a transcript of, only reference to it following the earlier forecast. If this meant that it still contained the word 'later', then they still had the risk of a F10, albeit for a few hours (and of course the build up to it). Dover in fresh onshore weather is nasty, so most who have been there will realise the possibility that it may not be accessible in really nasty weather, so being at sea for longer than the intended trip was always a distinct possibility.

His last port of refuge he past at 0100. It would be surprising if the word 'later' was used in that forecast as the weather deteriorated shortly afterwards, and a F11 warning was also put out.

It would be interesting to find out exactly what the wording of the 1700 and 0100 forecasts were, and no doubt the trial will hear what other weather sources he was using during the passage. Perhaps he had several, and chose the most favourable? Or perhaps he thought that 'later' meant after 16 hours or something?

 

[mikefleetwood]

Many thanks for answering, but it doesn't quite square with what was said in post #9

....According to the plan they should have been into Dover in a F7 according to both the forecast and the actual winds.....

There were other posts of a similar nature - that is why I am confused.

 

[A1Sailor]

They only had to take the wheel off. One big nut. A simple job.

I don't think you should call the Skipper a big nut.

 

[Pye_End]

Many thanks for answering, but it doesn't quite square with what was said in post #9


There were other posts of a similar nature - that is why I am confused.

Agreed. I can only think that some people believe 'later' means 16 hours+ or 24+, or maybe there is other weather information to support this that has not been posted. Hopefully the trial will bring this out so it can be better understood.

 

[flawed_logic]

I think his twitter posts says it all. He thought the idea of a f10 would be "fun". Seems to me to show lack of experience and over confidence, that is not a good combination

 

[Simondjuk]

And that assumes they planned to be out in a F10 and it seems clear to me they didn't plan that at all.

I don't understand your thinking on this.

The forecast issued at 1100, the last before their departure, offered F10 later. CS hoped to be in Ramsgate by lunchtime on Tuesday. Later means expected more than 12 hours from the time of issue. Consequently, he had received due warning to expect the possibility of F10 conditions from 2300 on the Monday night, at least 13 hours before he expected to be in Ramsgate. Later does not mean 'expected more than 25 hours from time of issue' which is the minimum he would have needed to see him through to lunchtime on the Tuesday.

He sailed past his ports of refuge at Brighton and Eastbourne, not that I'd fancy chancing getting into either in a storm with an onshore element. Both would be dangerous. From Eastbourne to Dover, they were always going to be well into the 'later' section of the forecast, running the risk of having to deal with the forecast F10. It's fairly common knowledge that entering Dover was likely to be an impossibility in such conditions, so he was committing himself to the prospect of having to get round the corner and into Ramsgate at the point at which he sailed past Eastbourne in rising conditions, with a weakening crew and a possible F10 forecast long before he could make it anywhere else.

Notwithstanding all that, he also tweeted, "Great F8/9 maybe even F10 Tue!!! At least it's from west so just run under storm jib!!! May even use Trysail!!!!" Why would he say that if he didn't plan to be sailing in it at all? You have it from the horse's mouth that he was planning his sail selection for the forecast conditions. It couldn't be any clearer that he had considered and planned for the possibility of being out in a F10. He said it himself.

 

[Tranona]

Many thanks for answering, but it doesn't quite square with what was said in post #9


There were other posts of a similar nature - that is why I am confused.

Unreasonable to expect posts on here to be reliable, accurate or complete. Most are based on individuals' interpretation of the conflicting information reported in other secondary sources.

None of us is capable of arriving at a definitive account, but hopefully the court case and an MAIB report (if there is one) will provide one. Until then, all is speculation.

 

[Simondjuk]

Many thanks for answering, but it doesn't quite square with what was said in post #9


There were other posts of a similar nature - that is why I am confused.

I think it's the confusion of others which is confusing you.

The forecast issued at 1100 said, possible F10 later. That means from 2300 the same evening through to the end of the validity of the forecast 24 hours from its issue. So he had a forecast which indicated the risk of encountering a possible F10 anywhere from 2300 on Monday to 1100 on Tuesday.

 

[alant]

Agreed. I can only think that some people believe 'later' means 16 hours+ or 24+, or maybe there is other weather information to support this that has not been posted. Hopefully the trial will bring this out so it can be better understood.

Ah, the benefits of going on a day Skipper course.

PS
Just to remind everyone, the forecasts (imminent, soon, later) are from time of issue by the met office, not from the time of the broadcast you are listening to.

 

[A1Sailor]

I think much of the footage which is in the public domain is taken after they were in relative shelter off Deal. The footage at 0:25 in the report at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFO-PWAGU5U&feature=endscreen&NR=1 seems to be earlier, in worse conditions. The remains of a foresail flying from the masthead suggests this, and although struggling for control the helmsman does seem to be able to steer. I think at that stage the lifeboat was simply standing by, ready to assist, having been asked to do so by Dover Coastguard. I think everything changed when the helmsman bent the wheel when driven against it by the freak wave, and he got injured. I suspect suddenly the Skipper was left single handed in charge of a yacht he couldn't control.
All pure speculation on my part. It will all be being discussed in Court...

 

[toad_oftoadhall]

Many thanks for answering, but it doesn't quite square with what was said in post #9

The actual values on the night were posted by Photodog and I *think* the forecasts came from the YM article, so that's where my assertion in post 9 came from. It was undisputed in the last thread on this but it's worth double checking so it would be nice if someone with time to google or access to the YM article could post the forecasts Sunday evening and during the night.

The F11 imminent forecast came at 04:00 which was 3 hours past Eastbourne, I assume that was shortly after it was issued.

 

[sailor211]

I don't understand your thinking on this.


Notwithstanding all that, he also tweeted, "Great F8/9 maybe even F10 Tue!!! At least it's from west so just run under storm jib!!! May even use Trysail!!!!" Why would he say that if he didn't plan to be sailing in it at all? You have it from the horse's mouth that he was planning his sail selection for the forecast conditions. It couldn't be any clearer that he had considered and planned for the possibility of being out in a F10. He said it himself.

I think that if the tweets are put as evidence, that will hang him more than any forecast for the sea area and inshore forecast. The MAIB report at the time indicated that the condisions were F6 + rather than F10

 

[toad_oftoadhall]

I think it's the confusion of others which is confusing you.

The forecast issued at 1100 said, possible F10 later. That means from 2300 the same evening through to the end of the validity of the forecast 24 hours from its issue. So he had a forecast which indicated the risk of encountering a possible F10 anywhere from 2300 on Monday to 1100 on Tuesday.

AFAIC the 1100 forecast isn't relevant because the critical point was when they passed Eastbourne. AFAIC the only forecast that matters in establishing if they meant to be out in the 10/11 or not is the last one the heard before they passed Eastbourne. CS says that forecast gave him a window to get to Dover (although he accepts he pushed that window). So we need to see that forecast to find out if CS is right about that and I'm certain we've seen that forecast in one of these threads or in the YM interview with CS.

Why has news from the trial dried up? Is the prosecution case more interesting to the press than defence?

 

[Pye_End]

I think that if the tweets are put as evidence, that will hang him more than any forecast for the sea area and inshore forecast. The MAIB report at the time indicated that the condisions were F6 + rather than F10

See post 104. Sounds more like a good 8 at Dover around 6am, and rising.

 

[fireball]

CS says that forecast gave him a window to get to Dover (although he accepts he pushed that window).

Would you push a window with a Storm forecasted where your next available port is likely to be unusable due to the forecasted weather?!