"Liferaft" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

[DavenHelen]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

Your quote was "the probability could be absolutely zero".

Disagree, unless you are saying that if we remove all know causes, there will never be an incident in which a liferaft is required. You are confusing Probability based on events which have happened and Probability based on the likelihood of them happening in the future.

I would challenge your statement, "The number of incidents is not related to the number of voyages or number of miles." and "They are not randomly distributed across the population, but only occur in a narrow range of specific circumstances."

You appear to be saying that increase in usage will not lead to circumstances that need LRs You can analyse the incidents to understand the circumstances but you cannot prevent similar circumstances from reoccuring.

 

[jordanbasset]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

Hi, thanks for the figures re re serious injuries on the road, they are useful and enables people to assess their own risks.I believe I have travelled in my live so an average around of 15,000 miles per year. If I multiply that by 50 years ( not including time as a child when passenger and assuming I will not see 70) that comes to 750,000 miles, which as a ratio to 10 million miles is around a 1 in 13 chance of being seriously injured or killed. I think that is a big enough risk to justify a seat bealt. In addition serious road casualties went down considerably when seat belts were made compulsory (probably together with generally safer car design one of the single biggest improvements to safety on the roads) if no one wore seat belts the number of serious accidents would go up and the risk would be even greater. Perhaps if you rarely travelled by car the statistical likelyhood would be low.

What would be interesting is similar figures with regards to life rafts over miles travelled, but as has been already mentioned it seems such figures are hard to come by

 

[Tranona]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

Sorry, please get yourself a book on basic statistics. Probability is defined exactly as I described. There is no way you can predict events. You can only count past events and then project forward.

I can say that on the basis of the evidence there is a 60% chance if you are hit by a ship your boat will disintegrate and 40% chance that it will stay afloat long enough for you to be rescued or take to your liferaft. This is based on total of 5 reported incidents. I can also say that in a planned evacuation there is a one in three chance that the liferaft will not inflate. Based on a sample of 3, all with very different causes.

Now you should see why statistics are useless in understanding this issue.

Imagine how the daily papers could present the figures

"3 out of 5 yachts disintegrate in collisions!!!"

Somewhere at the bottom they might say that there have been only 5 collisions in 12 years, and probably would not bother to explain that an 8 metre yacht does not stand a chance against a 15000 ton ferry.

You can sail all your life and if you don't go near big ships, don't go out in extreme conditions and have a sound ship the probability of you needing to use a liferaft from the data available is in fact zero.

As to your last point, yes you can prevent foundering by not getting into situations where it might happen. However while we continue to cross the channel and dodge ships there is always a chance that a collision will occur. The fact that it happens so rarely suggests that everybody is fully aware and takes precautions, Radar, AIS, Mk1 eyeball etc.

Read the reports and then you will know what to do to avoid foundering.

 

[DavenHelen]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

“Sorry, please get yourself a book on basic statistics.”

Got plenty thanks.

“Probability is defined exactly as I described. There is no way you can predict events. You can only count past events and then project forward.”

Probability is about expected outcomes based on existing data. As there have already been Liferaft incidents then likelihood/chance of future incidents is non zero unless you intend to bias the sample by removing inconvenient data.

“I can say that on the basis of the evidence there is a 60% chance if you are hit by a ship your boat will disintegrate and 40% chance that it will stay afloat long enough for you to be rescued or take to your liferaft. This is based on total of 5 reported incidents. I can also say that in a planned evacuation there is a one in three chance that the liferaft will not inflate. Based on a sample of 3, all with very different causes.

Now you should see why statistics are useless in understanding this issue.”

Except we are not talking samples here, this is population. In the first case, we are looking at 5 incidents out of the total population, so it is perfectly acceptable to to make those statement. In the second case you are making predictions based on a small sample size and should couch your statement in terms of the Confidence Intervals and the Power of the test. Unsure as to why you think that this makes Statistics useless.

“Imagine how the daily papers could present the figures

"3 out of 5 yachts disintegrate in collisions!!!"

Somewhere at the bottom they might say that there have been only 5 collisions in 12 years, and probably would not bother to explain that an 8 metre yacht does not stand a chance against a 15000 ton ferry.”

That is Newspapers for you.

“You can sail all your life and if you don't go near big ships, don't go out in extreme conditions and have a sound ship the probability of you needing to use a liferaft from the data available is in fact zero.”

For certain values of “big”, “extreme” and “sound”. The problem is most sailors will have to go near big ships at some point, will get caught out when the weather deteriorates and will have unforseen problems with their boat.

“As to your last point, yes you can prevent foundering by not getting into situations where it might happen. However while we continue to cross the channel and dodge ships there is always a chance that a collision will occur. The fact that it happens so rarely suggests that everybody is fully aware and takes precautions, Radar, AIS, Mk1 eyeball etc.”

Yes.

 

[nct1]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

I guess we will have to agree to differ on that point, to my mind a liferaft does act in the same way as seatbelts and airbags. You have choices, you can chose to have a car with an airbag or not, and believe it or not, some people still chose not to deploy seat belts, on the basis that they have never needed one to date !

Having a sound yacht is of course easy if you replace it with a new one every 3 years and have all system surveyed independently every year.

But most of us have a budget and run older boats, and anyone that has ever run an older car knows, systems will break down due to old age, and often without warning, despite regular servicing and independent surveys (MOT).

The 2 F7's I was in were not forecast, and blew up within 20 minutes in one case, so you cannot guarentee not to be in bad weather.

My reasoning for having a liferaft is not based on the statistical liklihood of needing one, it is simply that at sea there will be occasions where systems could fail and the rescue services cannot come to your aid before the boat goes down.

I want a fallback position as a last resort.

I do not want to leave it to chance that I will never need a fall back position.

 

[fireball]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

That is fine - nobody has said you shouldn't have a LR ... we are just putting the point across that statistically speaking you don't NEED one ...

I don't think you can do a direct comparison with LRs against seatbelts or airbags ... whilst seatbelt is compulsory in the UK, airbags are not.
Anyway - when driving a car you are in collision avoidance/potential accident situations many times even in a short journey, whereas at sea the sailing yacht can pretty much take care of itself and an accident potential is usually minutes rather than seconds away.

The prolonged argument comes down to some ppls opinion that everyone NEEDS a LR onboard whilst others (like myself) disagree that they are a necessity and it then becomes (for non-commercial use) a personal decision based on individual circumstance.

 

[Chrusty1]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

You must really enjoy these threads?........don't the words, banging, head, and wall mean anything to you? I have got a sore head just reading all this! /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif /forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif

I will just add this, seems to me that if people want to carry a Life Raft, then fine......if they don't then that's fine as well, it's up to each individual to make their own choices, speaking for myself, I don't have one, I can't afford one, and if I could afford one, there are things that are more important to me to spend my money on. To my way of thinking, the best liferaft is the one you are sailing in.

 

[captainslarty]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

The CBA factor dictates that I cant be bothered reading ALL this post.. but...
IF you dont have a raft, you are relying on others or drowning.. your choice...

but, to rely on others is selfish..

buy a bloody raft.. or stay in the marina. /forums/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

 

[Chrusty1]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

1. Not all people sail from Marinas.

2. Not all sailors can afford a bloody liferaft.

3. Not all sailors need a bloody liferaft.

4, Some sailors are capable of making sure that they have their boats set up to make sure that they don't ever need a bloody liferaft.

5. Some sailors do not rely on others to get them out of trouble.

 

[fireball]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

[ QUOTE ]

The CBA factor dictates that I cant be bothered reading ALL this post..

[/ QUOTE ] Your life - your choice!! /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
but...
IF you dont have a raft, you are relying on others or drowning.. your choice...

[/ QUOTE ] Which says that you believe a LR to be a necessity - ie, if you don't have a raft you WILL drown if others don't save you first ... it isn't as simple as that - first off, you need to be in a situation where deployment of LR is required and indeed possible - which statistically speaking you are more likely to win the lottery this weekend using 1 set of numbers ... (good luck - if you do, can you buy me a LR? /forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif)

[ QUOTE ]
but, to rely on others is selfish..

[/ QUOTE ] Even if you do end up in a LR you are dependant on others to collect you from said LR .... so you are also being selfish ....

[ QUOTE ]
buy a bloody raft.. or stay in the marina.

[/ QUOTE ] If I could justify the marina spend then I'd probably have purchased a raft ... I can't so I haven't .... so as I'm not in a marina I can go sailing without a LR now?

 

[DavenHelen]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

[ QUOTE ]
... which statistically speaking you are more likely to win the lottery this weekend using 1 set of numbers ...

[/ QUOTE ]

So the chance of needing a Liferaft is lower than 1:14,000,000?

 

[nct1]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

Statistics has nothing to do with the need for a LR. If the chances of foundering were significant we would not go out to sea. A LR is a fallback position of last resort.

Again I think the comparison stands, seatbelts and airbags are fall back positions of last resort (regardless of whether they are compulsory or not).

Re collisions, descriptions on this forum of incidents around the costal waters in the Isle of Wight / Southampton area lead me to believe the potential is very real.

I agree it normally takes time for a boat to flounder (unless of course you lose a keel ), but if you cannot summons help you still need a fallback position.

The original question was, should I buy a LR, and my original answer was, yes unless you have another fallback position in the event that you sink and nobody can help you.

The nay sayers have not come back with a convincing arguement other than its is something that MIGHT not happen.

For me, this is not good enough, for you it might be, I will rely on a proven floatation device should the unexpected happen, you will have to rely on your belief in statistics /forums/images/graemlins/wink.gif

 

[fireball]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

This weekend ... yes .... well actually 1:13983816 ... but then you knew that didn't you ....

Anyway - there is no chance of you winning it, because I am ...

 

[fireball]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

[ QUOTE ]
The nay sayers have not come back with a convincing arguement other than its is something that MIGHT not happen.

For me, this is not good enough, for you it might be, I will rely on a proven floatation device should the unexpected happen, you will have to rely on your belief in statistics

[/ QUOTE ]
Again - you miss the point - we're not saying that you(or anyone else) shouldn't have one ... only that you are unlikely to need one - therefore having one is down to the individual (or family).

The likely hood of needing one is all down to chance and statistics - unless you are so risk adverse that you don't do anything for fear it might harm you ...
Life is all about taking risks - calculated risks.

A seatbelt and/or airbag do not offer you impunity .. however, due to the sheer volume and speed of traffic on todays roads they are deemed a sensible safety feature.

As I've said numerous times a LR does not guarantee your life - it may not even be there as a last resort - fate may have meant that it could not be deployed, failed to inflate or was washed away before you had a chance to use it, however it does give you the potential for another chance.

I don't know what your personal circumstances are ... but for me, our sailing area and crew are such that a LR that would set me back the cost of replacement rigging is not currently worth the expense. I wouldn't even worry greatly about being "caught out in a F7" ... in fact, I've set out in 32 knots - because the area is sheltered enough that it isn't a big sea ...

The OP asked specifically about the need for LR in coastal cruising in the UK ... well the coast is so different right round the UK that a generic answer cannot really be given - as it depends on the definition of "Coastal" ... and which bit of the coast they intend to sail ... I'd be a bit more inclined to have a LR if the distances between safe havens was quite large, but not bother if, like us a harbour is never more than ~1 or 2hr away.

 

[DavenHelen]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

/forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif /forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif

 

[Sailfree]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

I agree with your sensible posts but think you are silly trying to convince stupid people to take appropriate safety precautions to the risks they are in reality exposed to.

Some people are too stupid to appreciate a minimal risk situation yet probably expose their families to far greater risk when they are at the wheel of a car (unless they insist that they are one of the 99.9% of drivers that are above average).

I suspect that a number are obsessed with the need to spend £1,000's on buying and servicing their liferafts yet skimp on engine maintenance or a rigging survey and probably completely miss the need to give a priority for certain items of safety kit and will only be happy when legislation is bought in to compel every watercraft to have a Liferaft.

Rather scuppers the happy individuals that got afloat for £5,000 in this months YM!!

 

[Tranona]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

No, Captain, you still have to rely on others to pick you up. All you are doing is swapping one floating vessel because it has either ceased to float or is likely to do so, for one that you hope will float (but doesn't always!). A raft is not going to get you safely back to land without help.

 

[Tranona]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

If I may be permitted one last comment then I will shut up. In an earlier post I referred to a phenomenom called "Moral Panic" where untrue things get into the public consciuosness and then take on a life of their own. (Devil worship in the Orkneys and systemic child abuse in Lancashire are examples). Look how much effort was needed to erase these untruths once they had been stated - and right to the end some supporters still refused to believe the facts.

A similar issue to this liferaft debate is the original AIDS campaigns where the general thrust was that it was "everybody's" disease. Those who are old enough will remember the scary leaflets and posters our children brought home from school. In this country and in most other developed countries it was never going to spread outside certain sections of the community because of the way it was transmitted, or through contaminated blood. To my mind, the effort spent on trying to make it everybody's disease diverted attention away from the real victims. Of course attitudes changed and our society generally has no taboos about AIDS, because we know the "truth" about it.

Suggesting that all yachtsmen need a liferaft is not dissimilar. The truth is the need is confined to narrow subsets. If I were crossing the Bay of Biscay in the winter I would take one because that is where I have a high probability (based on recorded past data) of encountering conditions that could overwhelm even a well found yacht. If I were an ocean racer intent on pushing my yacht to the limits in any conditions, I would have one (indeed would be forced to). If I habitually sailed in boats of an unstable design or had a propensity to lose its keel, I would have one. If I were a professional fisherman operating in all weathers I would have one.

The only cause of foundering which is partly outside my control is collision. And even there the 5 cases in the last 12 years have so little in common, both in the way they occured and location that the only way of avoiding them is vigilance and good seamanship from both parties.

So, fellow yachtsmen avoid the trap of moral panic and concentrate on the facts, there is more than enough to learn from them to make yachting safer.

And if you are still emotionally attached to having a raft, then by all means do so and be thankful that they are a fraction of the price in real terms than they were in the past!

 

[Sailfree]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

[ QUOTE ]
In an earlier post I referred to a phenomenom called "Moral Panic" where untrue things get into the public consciuosness and then take on a life of their own. [ QUOTE ]


Oh dear I think I will have started some Moral Panic in the thread I have started - "Liferafts - every home should have one".

It's true though more people die from flooding than the consequences of failing to have a liferaft on a boat. Can that be called "Justifiable Panic" then?

/forums/images/graemlins/grin.gif

 

[WindFinder]

Re: \"Liferaft\" is it needed for coastal cruising in UK

Tranona, Sailfree & Fireball, I think it's time to give up. You've only got to read the posts to realize that some of these people are emotional rather than logical thinkers. You're typing for no good purpose.

Your arguments are well reasoned and clear. The counter arguments are hysterical. Take satisfaction from that and give up.