Inconsistent forecasts

[chrishelen]

The weather forecast massively affects my business, a bad forecast for the week ahead on the telly can ruin my day....recently, the BBC forecast rain that never came,punters stayed away, sun that never shone, ( surprise surprise) . why can't they just look out of the window before they give us a forecast?
Also wind guru seems to be guessing these days.

 

[pagoda]

I'm another one that's lost confidence in the Met Office. I prefer to use the models and add my own fiddle factors.

Luckily for the Irish Sea the ECMWF forecast is available as well as the GFS (on the Met Eireann website) but as far as I'm aware not available in the UK despite being produced in Bracknell: http://www.met.ie/forecasts/5day-ireland.asp

What is really frustrating is that there are other more detailed models available that the forecasters have, yet they still produce broad-brush exaggerated forecasts. This detailed model from Ireland show the sort of thing that exists (And I find it does mirror some of my own fiddle factors that I add to the GFS/ECMWF based on experience): http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

I do look at the official "inshore waters " forecasts. Trends, rising or falling, tend to be correct. Strengths I would say NOT. Official forecasts are generally 1 or sometimes 2 BF overstated. I think this is a throwback to "liability" and a desire to have no replays of the "Michael Fish Hurricane forecast"
Having come round from Wick back to the Clyde recently, my experience of actual conditions and "inshore waters forecasts" tends to confirm my previous thoughts. Mention of BF 3 or less usually ends up with plate glass and variable light puffs of wind. Almost anything else, typically subtract 1-2BF, depending on the fetch available? 5BF to occasional 6BF forecast is generally OK. 7 plus is usually not worth being out in anyway!
There are almost too many alternative forecasts in existence to choose one, so check out several and make your choice.?

 

[franksingleton]

I do look at the official "inshore waters " forecasts. Trends, rising or falling, tend to be correct. Strengths I would say NOT. Official forecasts are generally 1 or sometimes 2 BF overstated. I think this is a throwback to "liability" and a desire to have no replays of the "Michael Fish Hurricane forecast"
Having come round from Wick back to the Clyde recently, my experience of actual conditions and "inshore waters forecasts" tends to confirm my previous thoughts. Mention of BF 3 or less usually ends up with plate glass and variable light puffs of wind. Almost anything else, typically subtract 1-2BF, depending on the fetch available? 5BF to occasional 6BF forecast is generally OK. 7 plus is usually not worth being out in anyway!
There are almost too many alternative forecasts in existence to choose one, so check out several and make your choice.?

I know that I am behind the pace on this one but I have to say that the Met Office does not set out to over-forecast wind strengths. Remember that they MUST issue a gale warning when a gale MAY occur. They only cancel gales when they are sure that there is no gale occurring. That leads to an impression of over forecasting.

Further, remember that inshore forecasts cover a length of coast, eg Selsey Bill to Lyme Regis, an area that includes the Isle of Wight and the Solent. That leads to the need to use such phrases as NW 3-4 loc 5. Or Nord-Nord-ouest 3.4 parfois 5.