How much longer will sales of boats with internal combustion engines be allowed?

[nortada]

Although not yet legislated for, the UK government wants sales of ICE cars to end in 2035.
Ban on petrol and diesel car sales brought forward.

In practice I suspect that few manufacturers will launch new ICE cars in the years leading up to this, so we could be less than 10 years away from ICE car sales being a small niche and electric cars predominating. And then it being increasingly hard to get fuel from 2035, maybe before if the demand really starts to fall off.

What do we think this means for boats? You'd sort of assume that it would follow the same time frame in terms of the legislation. But there probably wouldn't be the same manufacturer lead switch.

And then, what do we think sailing will look like once new boats with diesel engines are not being made? How long before it becomes very difficult to get fuel in out of the way places? And then how long before the marina fuel barge is a thing of the past? I suspect marinas would welcome this.... End of a lot of logistical and staffing issues, safety and environmental concerns etc, all replaced with selling electricity to every berth, probably via smartphone login etc.

And what do we think boats designed from the start to use electric power would look like? Much difference? The first thing that occurred to me was that if you are using electric drives there is no reason not to have 2 props, one in front of each rudder on a modern twin ruddered design. That would have quite a big effect on manoeuvrability. And they could easily be retractable rather than having to rely on folding props etc.

Sales of ICE boats will outlive me and probably my kids.

 

[JumbleDuck]

Really interesting stuff, thanks.

Keep it coming.

Oh Lord, don't encourage me. I mean, thanks, you're very welcome.

2. I think my theory is that this change will come and Diesel engines will cease to be normal on cruising boats within my lifetime. And I kind of hope so too. Amount of power you can store aside, in many ways electric motors are much more suitable as auxiliary engines for yachts, more reliable, can generate fuel as you sail, quieter, don't smell and more in keeping with sailing's "green" credentials.

I agree about disel, but I wouldn;t care to bet on what will replace it. A chap I know fitted a boat like mine with electric propulsion. Wonderfully quiet and easy to operate ... but £20k's worth of initial install and another £20k's worth of Li-ion battery upgrade, luckily sponsored by the battery manufacturer and he had a range of ten miles or so at top speed, twenty if he dawdled along. Fine for his use (leave harbour on a nice day, sail, enter harbour) but not something I'd want as Plan B for getting round the Mull of Kintyre.

My best guess is that we'll see hybrids come in. Electric for short range stuff of ten miles or so, small internal combustion for longer range cruising, both together for a short term punch against a tide. The IC engine might run on ethanol, or vegetable oil.

I hadn't heard of that one but there is at least one other outfit looking at a similar process. Carbon Engineering capture CO2 out of the atmosphere which can then be combined with hydrogen from electrolysis of water to produce hydrocarbons. It requires heaps of renewable energy of course but good peak smoothing for nuclear or solar power stations.

I thought it looked interesting. Especially if electrolysis came from wind or hydro. Someone else mentioned kerosene works in diesel donks. So if they are producing in quantity for aviation, then once the process is cracked Mebbe maritime use too?

The trouble with anything hydrogen is that electrolysis is a truly awful way to make it, because you are starting with high-grade energy in the form of electricity and the round trip to hydrogen and back is (iirc) only about 50% efficient. It only makes sense when you have more electricity than you know what to do with, and the only examples I can think of that are Orkney, where they have been piddling about with hydrogen for ages because the interconnect to the mainland isn't big enough for all their wind farm output (that's imminently changing) and the Norsk Hydro plant at Vemork which made all that heavy water the Germans wanted back in the 40s.

Otherwse if you have electricity you do your damnedest to keep it as electricity because anything else is just throwing it away. Almost all hydrogen is made from natural gas.

 

[JumbleDuck]

I would not be surprised, or disappointed, if holding tanks became obligatory.

I'll feel worse about my lack of holding tank when I see a seal in a nappy.

 

[siwhi]

There are, increasingly, options available. By the time diesel becomes difficult to get hold of on a dock, other choices will be cheaper. They include Biofuels (not fossil fuels), Hydrogen, Batteries / solar, Green Fuel cells. Some boats are even powered by nuclear reactors, and radically, others are powered by the wind.

 

[Rappey]

Im not sure common rail engines are good to run on veg oil? Isnt Kerosene nasty for a diesel as it does not have the lubricationg properties of diesel oil.?
Many boat engines are far behind with emissions technology so for them to change to electric may be a leap too far until some wonder power source comes along.
Modern diesels have so much electronics- ~A liability in a wet damp boat ?

 

[Vicarage]

Aren't most yacht inboards simply modified versions of older car diesel engines? Surely they'd run on bio-diesel made from reprocessed chip fat?

One of the big problems with diesel supply for yachts is that the nasty bio diesel is creeping into the supply chain. It's fine for cars where you drain your tank in a week, but on vessels that bunker large volumes reasonably infrequently it causes carnage as it's far more prone to developing "bug" than normal diesel because it has a higher water content.
As a result, you'll probably find that your local marina advertises their fuel as FAME (fatty acid methyl ester) free, which means no biofuel content.
That's not to say that the additives won't get better to keep the bug at bay, but as it currently stands there would be a whole lot more engine breakdowns from filters/pumps/injectors getting gummed up if they started using road biodiesel in boats in a big way. The average owner would also have to get much better at draining and cleaning tanks, changing filters etc.

 

[Hadenough]

I think it probably would change the way people use their boats. But then I've never really understood the people who motor for 5 hours at 5 knots on a still day just to get to the place they'd initially planned to, only to motor back the following day...

The big Mobos are another matter....

But then you race ??

 

[HissyFit]

One of the big problems with diesel supply for yachts is that the nasty bio diesel is creeping into the supply chain. ...

Thanks for that, Vicarage. Enlightening. It hadn't occurred to me that there would be any issue with commercial biodiesel. The 'quality control' on homemade chippy waste diesel could vary from non-existent to ... somewhere. I see now that it isn't something you'd want to be in doubt of crossing a TSS.

 

[Laser310]

The main effect of this policy on boating will be through a dramatic reduction in disposable income - fewer people will be able to afford boats.

The cost of electrification of the nation will be enormous. It's not just the expense of buying electric automobiles. Not only will we need greatly increased generation - to replace fossil fuels used for transport and heat.., but the entire distribution grid will need to be replaced or supplemented - from the source to each house, each flat, each office...

perfectly good infrastructure - natural gas lines - that might be expected to last many years will be abandoned. It might even need to be removed...

gas heat alone uses twice the energy of the the nations current electricity production. Transport is another multiple of current electricity production.

to decarbonize, we are looking at producing perhaps 5X the current electricity production

Electricity is already expensive - how much money is the average person going to have left after heating their homes with electricity?

 

[rwoofer]

Oh Lord, don't encourage me. I mean, thanks, you're very welcome.



I agree about disel, but I wouldn;t care to bet on what will replace it. A chap I know fitted a boat like mine with electric propulsion. Wonderfully quiet and easy to operate ... but £20k's worth of initial install and another £20k's worth of Li-ion battery upgrade, luckily sponsored by the battery manufacturer and he had a range of ten miles or so at top speed, twenty if he dawdled along. Fine for his use (leave harbour on a nice day, sail, enter harbour) but not something I'd want as Plan B for getting round the Mull of Kintyre.

My best guess is that we'll see hybrids come in. Electric for short range stuff of ten miles or so, small internal combustion for longer range cruising, both together for a short term punch against a tide. The IC engine might run on ethanol, or vegetable oil.





The trouble with anything hydrogen is that electrolysis is a truly awful way to make it, because you are starting with high-grade energy in the form of electricity and the round trip to hydrogen and back is (iirc) only about 50% efficient. It only makes sense when you have more electricity than you know what to do with, and the only examples I can think of that are Orkney, where they have been piddling about with hydrogen for ages because the interconnect to the mainland isn't big enough for all their wind farm output (that's imminently changing) and the Norsk Hydro plant at Vemork which made all that heavy water the Germans wanted back in the 40s.

Otherwse if you have electricity you do your damnedest to keep it as electricity because anything else is just throwing it away. Almost all hydrogen is made from natural gas.

If there is any vehicle suited to hydrogen it is boats - high energy density by mass, but low by volume unless cryo-cooled. Curtailed electricity is only on the up as and total windfarm capacity increases and there there are a number of different non-electricity techniques for making it from reforming through to thermolysis. Even the airline industry is now seriously looking at hydrogen, where the compromises are much greater than for boats.

 

[monkfish24]

I have actually personally carried out a feasibility study into converting an existing ICE sailing yacht to an electric motor as part of starting a business, converting existing sailing yachts.

Even by today's battery standards, unless you just want to motor out, race and motor back to the mooring, it's not really feasible. the voltages and capacities just aren't there yet without losing serious amounts of internal volume. I appreciate that you need big tanks for fuel for long voyages but fuel is a liquid that conforms to unusual spaces very easily, batteries obviously do not.

The amount of power it takes to drive a vessel forward constantly is also not the same consideration as a car, the constant speed of a car and the power required to maintain that speed in terms of power is very different to a yacht.

It can be done, but even I, as a big proponent of electrical power (being an ETO), it would take a lot of changes in how you sail and where you would take your boat, i.e atlantic crossings, long trips across the channel where diesel can be just added to a tank when it get's low, that I would not look at it yet....

 

[Sybarite]

How long would it take a reasonable sized solar array to charge a battery that would be good for say 5 hours at 4 knots on your boat?

Watch "Sailing Uma" on youtube for the answer. 36' boat lithium batteries electric motor @ 4 knots iirc gives them about 8 hours with their set-up.

 

[DJE]

Watch "Sailing Uma" on youtube for the answer. 36' boat lithium batteries electric motor @ 4 knots iirc gives them about 8 hours with their set-up.

Well if you can only motor at 4 knots in a 36 footer then at least you're going to do a lot more sailing.

 

[Stemar]

I'm going to guess that many of us are old enough to remember when an engineless sailing boat wasn't a rarity, and many of the "lucky" ones had a nasty little petrol job that was only reliable in the sense that it would reliably fail to start when you really needed it.

My conclusion from this thread and other sources is that, barring some serious breakthroughs in energy storage, both in the national grid and on board, banning ICE on boats would be the end of sailing as it is today, where 32 feet is a small boat. OK, the seriously rich could manage with big boats and loads of batteries, but most of us would be back to the days when the review of my Snapdragon 24 could describe her as a capable family cruiser. It wouldn't be all bad, though; watching boats with flat batteries trying to get back into their marina berth could become a successful spectator sport for amateurs of shadenfreude...

 

[Momac]

Diesel will need to be available for construction and agriculture for a very long time.
So diesel will also be available for boats.
Maybe in 40 or 50 years time things will look different.

 

[DJE]

My conclusion from this thread and other sources is that, barring some serious breakthroughs in energy storage, both in the national grid and on board, banning ICE on boats would be the end of sailing as it is today,

And what about motor boating? Maybe that's where the innovation would come from?

 

[TernVI]

...My conclusion from this thread and other sources is that, barring some serious breakthroughs in energy storage, both in the national grid and on board, banning ICE on boats would be the end of sailing as it is today, ....

'Sailing as it is today' is in fact very diverse and includes lots of dinghies etc where there is no expectation of power.
For many of us, only having a few miles electric range would not be that big an issue.
For other people who motor a lot it will have a big impact.
We are talking about new engines in 15+ years time, by then it's quite likely that the idea of dieseling around inefficiently will be socially abhorrent.

On the up side, materials will get cheaper to build boats that sail better.

 

[siwhi]

The main effect of this policy on boating will be through a dramatic reduction in disposable income - fewer people will be able to afford boats.

The cost of electrification of the nation will be enormous. It's not just the expense of buying electric automobiles. Not only will we need greatly increased generation - to replace fossil fuels used for transport and heat.., but the entire distribution grid will need to be replaced or supplemented - from the source to each house, each flat, each office...

perfectly good infrastructure - natural gas lines - that might be expected to last many years will be abandoned. It might even need to be removed...

gas heat alone uses twice the energy of the the nations current electricity production. Transport is another multiple of current electricity production.

to decarbonize, we are looking at producing perhaps 5X the current electricity production

Electricity is already expensive - how much money is the average person going to have left after heating their homes with electricity?

The executive summary of this report from Imperial College is worth a read (Accelerated electrification and the GB electricity system ):

https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-conten...-Electrification-Vivid-Economics-Imperial.pdf

It is all possible, quite affordable, and actually being done at pace at the moment.

 

[Mudisox]

Who started all this , it would not run if we all were able to go out and actually do some boating!!

 

[TernVI]

The executive summary of this report from Imperial College is worth a read (Accelerated electrification and the GB electricity system ):

https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-conten...-Electrification-Vivid-Economics-Imperial.pdf

It is all possible, quite affordable, and actually being done at pace at the moment.

Things will accelerate when battery prices fall to the point that it's worth having lots of solar panels and storing your own power, and when grid level storage by battery or hydrogen is economic.