How do YOU forecast??

[Planty]

I notice a number of posts during mid weeks that profess "Looks like it could be nice this weekend". For my benefit and probably for a good number of the Newbies on here, could I enquire EXACTLY how you very experienced forumites research the possible weather. Perhaps you could give us a blow by blow account, (points of reference etc), of the decision making process. It might be interesting to a few others too! Also as mentioned many times taking SWMBO out on a bad one can affect ones boating long term and we don't want that, do we??

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[longjohnsilver]

Look at various weather sites such as http://xcweather.co.uk or the local BBC weather site using their 5 day forecast. There's also <A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.theyr.net>http://www.theyr.net</A>.

These are all good useful sites, I use them all the time in the summer before I go diving and last summer was the first where I didn't have to cancel once we'd reached the boat!

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[simongoldthorpe]

Get some seaweed, preferably long stem kelp. Boil it in turpentine for 22 minutes and then leave it to dry naturally for at least 12 hours. Once dry, smother it with English mustard leaving just the bottom of the stem uncovered. Place in an airtight bag in the freezer and leave until hard and crispy. then when you want to see what the weather is going to do at the weekend, take it out of the freezer, place it carefully in the bin, and phone Marinecall 5 day forecasts.

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[powerskipper]

Weather is a large topic to cover, best to learn what the weather forcasts are telling you, , they give a wide picture of the weather over the whole country, they use pro words these can be found in RYA publications and the Met office web site, under teaching/learning. then you can use an informed guess as to what the waether will be like in your area.
Best to read up info and monitor the weather web sites untill you find one that is normally right for the area you are in./forums/images/icons/smile.gif


<hr width=100% size=1>Julie ,
IMOSHO of course,/forums/images/icons/smile.gif

 

[duncan]

theyr.net - link as above. Watch from 3 days out and look for changes in their predictions.
Consistency plus good forecast leads me to plan a trip.
I find them pretty good and the site is easy to use and comprehensive.
Ultimately you get an excellent picture of what is going to happen - the variation tends to be more in timing.

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[kingfisher]

Use pigeon

METHOD A

How do you tell the weather by a pigeon:
1) take pigeon in hands
2) Open window
3) Hold pigeon out of window for certain time
4) pull pigeon back in

If the pigeon is wet, it is raining

METHOD B
outside of the harbourmasters' office, there hangs a small plank with a peg, on which hangs a piece of string. The manual is on a brass plaque
-rope wet: rain
-rope stiff: frost
-rope slanted: windy
-rope horizontal: heavy wind
-rope gone: hurricane
-rope invisible: dense fog

METHOD C
compare 5-day forecast of www.bdb.be to 5 day forecast at www.knmi.nl. Also use comprehensive weathercharts on http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/
shed disbelief on all forecasts containing high wind/rain. Zealously trust those reports that predict fair weather


<hr width=100% size=1>Group of people on the pontoon: skipper is the one with the toolbox.
http://sirocco31.tripod.com

 

[Planty]

Love it!! Cheered me up you have.

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[Planty]

Re: Use pigeon

As has been said elsewhere, totally crackers, but good fun, thanks. Keep the info coming though and the factual stuff too!

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[Deleted User YDKXO]

Others have confirmed good weather websites. From about 3 to 4 days out you will get a feel from these sites and from other weather sources (eg TV, newspapers) what the weather might be like and I say 'might' because, however detailed these forecasts are, they are not 100% accurate or anywhere near. Just about the only forecast you can half rely on is the forecast issued that morning for the day ahead and the probability of an accurate forecast diminishes the further ahead it is. So, you can get a Marinacall 2 - 5day forecast on a Tuesday which will give you a forecast for the following Saturday. On this basis you could make tentative plans for the weekend but you should not set any plans in stone eg invite 5 of your friends confidently predicting you're going to Cherbourg for the weekend 'coz you're likely to be dissapointed. As the week goes on, keep looking at forecasts and plan to make a final decision Thursday evening or Friday morning. Even then, keep checking the latest forecast right up until you leave your berth
Broadly speaking, the UK weather is a never ending series of low pressure areas with their associated weather fronts zooming to the north of the UK punctuated by occasional spells of high pressure. Because it is very difficult to predict the path and intensity of these low pressure areas, it is very difficult to predict the weather associated with these low pressure areas. So, if we are in a period of one low pressure system after the other (as we have been for most of January), do not expect any great accuracy in the forecast for the coming days. On the other hand, if you see a high pressure area developing over the UK in the next few days, particularly a large area extending from the Azores or from Scandinavia, you can be a little more confident about any forecasts as high pressure areas are slower moving than low pressure areas. Just be aware that high pressure areas, whilst giving generally more settled weather, can also give sea fog conditions, particularly early in the season as warm moist air interacts with colder water
Suggest you look at doing a RYA Day Skipper or Coastal Skipper theory course to learn more about weather

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[Duncan_Hamble]

BBC Countryfile forecast on Sunday morning for the week ahead in general.

BBC forecasts each evening - they usually give an outlook for the next few days, sometimes longer. - They have been predicting very cold conditions for next week for the past few days - will they be right?

Closer to the off Ceefax has the shipping forecast and inshore forecast.

Finally - if it's raining when I wake up I go back to sleep!

Duncan



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[tico]

Even easier.....
Friday night.... drive to boat
Saturday morning
If weathers bad............ Stay in berth and enjoy being away from stress
If weathers good............. Go out on boat and enjoy being away from stress

There, Sorted

<hr width=100% size=1>Been there, done that, got the oily T shirt

 

[Talon]

http://www.onlineweather.com

<hr width=100% size=1>Alex

<A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.mad-als.com>http://www.mad-als.com</A>

 

[gjgm]

just doing meteorology at the moment, but i m sure there are more experienced folk to advise. What I have learned has also been mentioned here, that the forecasts are indeed only predictions, and that looking at a few days in advance of your intended trip will give you a better picture than if you just look at the morning forecast alone. For the big picture, even the seaweed and string isnt going to compete with those with satellites who take 000's of readings from around the world. What i hadnt appreciated is how much you can predict about YOUR very local weather over the short term due to sea breezes, local coastline,clouds,sea swell etc.. and why wind strength and direction in harbour can be so different to just offshore. So even the local forecasters are still covering at least a few hundred square miles..while extremely useful, you can improve on that with a little learning and being on the spot.RYA do some quite good books.. well this season I ll test out my scraps of knowledge !!

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[kindredspirit]

There's a few of the best sites on my link below. (Don't worry about the Irish bit, the weather sites will apply to you too)

Bracknell's synoptics are the best way to forecast 5 days ahead. And theyr.net will give you very precise LOCAL information.

<hr width=100% size=1><A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.begleys.com/kevin/weather.htm>Weather & other useful links for Irish waters.</A>

 

[DeepAndy]

look out my kitchen window ,

If trees are moving = stay at home
If trees are still = take a short walk to the seafront and look at the SEA.

Once at boat ( 10 mins away )

Look at sea = calm = go rough = do some work on the boat


NOW, wind speed ........... If seagulls are in land , it's rough mid channel ( no food for them , so they come inland to feed )

Seagulls on a roof of a bulding near th marina office

less than 9 seagulls force 3 or less
less than 12 sea gulls force 4 or less
less than 15 sea gulls force 5 or less

3 sea gulls = 1 force on the beaufort scale......


Andy

<hr width=100% size=1><A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.taurusdiving.co.uk>http://www.taurusdiving.co.uk</A>

 

[Renegade_Master]

thats one hellova sentence Mike

<hr width=100% size=1><A target="_blank" HREF=http://www.suncoastmarine.co.uk>Sun Coast Sea School & Charter</A>

 

[Deleted User YDKXO]

I'm glad you liked it, Clive. I'll do an abridged version for Sun readers, if you want

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