AntarcticPilot
Well-Known Member
Dear All,
This follows on from another thread on navigational style. However, in the last 24 hours there have been 4 major flares on the Sun, and we can expect more as the year progresses. See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22539160.
The current flares happen not to be pointing in the direction of the Earth, so will have no effects on us. However, if a major flare occurs which targets the Earth, we can expect a wide range of phenomena that might include radio interference (both HF and VHF) and disruption of GPS. GPS problems might well include substantially reduced accuracy and spurious positions in addition to temporary loss of GPS signal. In the very worst case, the aging GPS satellites might well be damaged; this is unlikely but not impossible.
There can be little warning of such events; the immediate effects travel from the Sun at the speed of light and are followed by other effects that travel at lower velocities. The effects potentially persist for many hours; perhaps days.
This is coupled with the 11 year cycle of solar activity; we are passing through the period of maximum solar activity at the moment. We cannot forecast how intense the solar activity will be, nor the exact period it will persist for. There are many other potential effects that could cause power supply problems and problems with communications cables, but these are unlikely to affect sailors directly.
As we progress through the Solar Maximum, I suggest that we ensure that we sanity check GPS locations when in critical situations, and do not rely solely on them. Also, it may be a good idea not to rely on mobile phones or VHF as the sole means of calling for emergency assistance.
This follows on from another thread on navigational style. However, in the last 24 hours there have been 4 major flares on the Sun, and we can expect more as the year progresses. See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22539160.
The current flares happen not to be pointing in the direction of the Earth, so will have no effects on us. However, if a major flare occurs which targets the Earth, we can expect a wide range of phenomena that might include radio interference (both HF and VHF) and disruption of GPS. GPS problems might well include substantially reduced accuracy and spurious positions in addition to temporary loss of GPS signal. In the very worst case, the aging GPS satellites might well be damaged; this is unlikely but not impossible.
There can be little warning of such events; the immediate effects travel from the Sun at the speed of light and are followed by other effects that travel at lower velocities. The effects potentially persist for many hours; perhaps days.
This is coupled with the 11 year cycle of solar activity; we are passing through the period of maximum solar activity at the moment. We cannot forecast how intense the solar activity will be, nor the exact period it will persist for. There are many other potential effects that could cause power supply problems and problems with communications cables, but these are unlikely to affect sailors directly.
As we progress through the Solar Maximum, I suggest that we ensure that we sanity check GPS locations when in critical situations, and do not rely solely on them. Also, it may be a good idea not to rely on mobile phones or VHF as the sole means of calling for emergency assistance.
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