Earthquakes in the Aegean around Santorini and Ios

mjcoon said:
Via a tsunami (IIRC, but not 1st hand!)...
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Roberto said:
Circa 1500BC, often related to the sudden disappearance of Minoan civilisation.
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There's been some rowing back on that one. Of course, it devastated the Minoan settlement at Akrotiri on Santorini, but even there, the evidence is that they made an orderly evacuation - very few portable artefacts have been found, so the population did get warning. It wasn't like Pompeii where the inhabitants were caught by surprise. But it seems that the damage to Minoan settlements on Crete was much less than first thought, and the Minoans had rebuilt their palaces (or whatever - palace probably isn't a good description) well before they were invaded by the Mycenaeans. After all, many of the palace sites are far from the coast and at substantial elevation; what is apparently the second most important (Phaistos) is on the south coast. Ash wouldn't have been a major problem - it was only inches at most on Crete. So the hypothesis that the Thera eruption devastated Crete doesn't hold up very well.

There is one thing though - there is a significant discrepancy between archaeological dating and radiometric dating of the eruption. But the archaeological dating is dependent on Ancient Egyptian dating, and it happens that it was during a period when the dating of events in Ancient Egypt is a bit shaky.
 
mjcoon said:
I keep hearing that expression, and wondering whether it is a mishearing of "rolling back", which is more understandable. As would be "back-pedalling", which could apply to bicycle engineering or a pedalo...
Can anyone give me the origin?
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From the intergoogles...

row back​

phrasal verb

row back
  1. [intransitive] to change an earlier statement, opinion or promise
    • Today he seemed to be rowing back from what he said last night.
    • The government is now trying to row back on its commitments.
 
AntarcticPilot said:
Of course, it devastated the Minoan settlement at Akrotiri on Santorini, but even there,
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Massive OT apologies, I learned that part of history (complete with discussions about Sir Evans extensive restoration works) as a teenager about 40 years ago, at school the 13 year old class history covered Aegypt to Greece, 14 year old class full year for the Romans, and so on. A couple of years ago my teenager daughter came home waving one single photocopied sheet of paper saying ''Dad we have done the Greeks'', let alone some of her classmates who still struggle to write a proper sentence :(
 
@AntarcticPilot Have there been any cases where there has been a forecast like that in Santorini and where there has been a big shake to follow? If it does kick off here, it looks like a win for science; or a setback if it doesn't as there will be accusations of crying wolf.
I recall there was some issue in Italy a few years back when the scientists got arrested and charged for not predicting a quake.
 
newtothis said:
@AntarcticPilot Have there been any cases where there has been a forecast like that in Santorini and where there has been a big shake to follow? If it does kick off here, it looks like a win for science; or a setback if it doesn't as there will be accusations of crying wolf.
I recall there was some issue in Italy a few years back when the scientists got arrested and charged for not predicting a quake.
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There was a case in China a few years ago when someone reckoned he had a way of predicting earthquakes and was spectacularly successful on one occasion. His method turned out to be useless and his prediction pure chance, and I think he got into serious trouble over it when it failed, which could happen to anyone over there.
 
Today is the 2nd anniversary of the earthquakes which killed some 60,000 people in eastern Türkiye and northern Syria. Reports about the swarm in the Aegean are naturally making people nervous.
 
newtothis said:
From the intergoogles...

row back​

phrasal verb

row back
  1. [intransitive] to change an earlier statement, opinion or promise
    • Today he seemed to be rowing back from what he said last night.
    • The government is now trying to row back on its commitments.
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I was confident of the interpretation... But unsure of the origination, and of why it is being copied. Does it bring to mind a rowing eight in disarray?
 
johnalison said:
There was a case in China a few years ago when someone reckoned he had a way of predicting earthquakes and was spectacularly successful on one occasion. His method turned out to be useless and his prediction pure chance, and I think he got into serious trouble over it when it failed, which could happen to anyone over there.
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From www.theguardian.com/science... "Scientists convicted of manslaughter for failing to warn of earthquake. A court in L'Aquila, Italy, has sentenced defendants to six years in prison despite lack of any reliable way to predict quakes"
 
johnalison said:
There was a case in China a few years ago when someone reckoned he had a way of predicting earthquakes and was spectacularly successful on one occasion. His method turned out to be useless and his prediction pure chance, and I think he got into serious trouble over it when it failed, which could happen to anyone over there.
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Unfortunately, except for Volcano-related seismicity, that story describes most attempts to predict earthquakes! We can easily make general statements like "California will experience big earthquakes" and even say "They are most likely along these stretches of the San Andreas Fault", but we can't say which part or when!

The issue is very simple - strain energy builds up along a moving fault line; we can measure that using a variety of techniques, both satellite (Interferometric SAR) and ground-based instrumentation.. We can also spot areas where the fault is not moving, and so strain energy is building up. So for terrestrial faults, we can see where and how big a quake is likely to occur. Of course, none of this works for submarine faults such as those involved in this case!

But we CAN'T (yet) detect the onset of the trigger that initiates an earthquake; it is probably down in the noise and an essentially random event. There have been attempts to detect the "stuck" points on faults, I think the story you relate was one such if my memory serves, but there has been no general success, and even if we can detect the "sticking" points, we still can't predict them becoming unstuck!

In boaty terms, perhaps the analogy is with a machine screw that has got stuck. If a steady force is applied, it may give way sooner or later - but it will go without warning. If we apply heat or lubricants or greater force or impacts, they may increase the likelihood of it coming unstuck - but the effect is unpredictable until we try it! And sometimes it will give a bit before finally letting go - but not always!

There is some evidence of VERY short-term prediction being possible, but we're talking about hours at most. And that's for terrestrial faults.
 
AntarcticPilot said:
Unfortunately, except for Volcano-related seismicity, that story describes most attempts to predict earthquakes! We can easily make general statements like "California will experience big earthquakes" and even say "They are most likely along these stretches of the San Andreas Fault", but we can't say which part or when!

The issue is very simple - strain energy builds up along a moving fault line; we can measure that using a variety of techniques, both satellite (Interferometric SAR) and ground-based instrumentation.. We can also spot areas where the fault is not moving, and so strain energy is building up. So for terrestrial faults, we can see where and how big a quake is likely to occur. Of course, none of this works for submarine faults such as those involved in this case!

But we CAN'T (yet) detect the onset of the trigger that initiates an earthquake; it is probably down in the noise and an essentially random event. There have been attempts to detect the "stuck" points on faults, I think the story you relate was one such if my memory serves, but there has been no general success, and even if we can detect the "sticking" points, we still can't predict them becoming unstuck!

In boaty terms, perhaps the analogy is with a machine screw that has got stuck. If a steady force is applied, it may give way sooner or later - but it will go without warning. If we apply heat or lubricants or greater force or impacts, they may increase the likelihood of it coming unstuck - but the effect is unpredictable until we try it! And sometimes it will give a bit before finally letting go - but not always!

There is some evidence of VERY short-term prediction being possible, but we're talking about hours at most. And that's for terrestrial faults.
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I saw a map a year or two back showing the areas of major earthquakes in Turkey. From what I remember it does look as if the centres are moving in the direction of Istanbul, and they seem to be predicting, in a very general way, that the city may experience again the sort of quake that damaged St Sophia’s a thousand or so years ago, though it could be a century or more before this occurs.
 
johnalison said:
I saw a map a year or two back showing the areas of major earthquakes in Turkey. From what I remember it does look as if the centres are moving in the direction of Istanbul, and they seem to be predicting, in a very general way, that the city may experience again the sort of quake that damaged St Sophia’s a thousand or so years ago, though it could be a century or more before this occurs.
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I guess it's inevitable there will be a big earthquake in İstanbul at some time in the future, given it's location on a major fault line. The 1999 quake in Izmit was close, but still far enough away to prevent massive casualties in İstanbul. A huge number of the buildings in the city and suburbs are old and poorly constructed, and would not withstand a major earthquake. Additionally, there is a huge fire risk if it occurred in the winter time as many people in the poorer areas are using wood burners (soba) illegally in apartments and squats. The most recent serious earthquakes 2 years ago couldn't have been further away from İstanbul, and I wouldn't put much credence in a theory about a flow in the direction of Istanbul. Hopefully science will advance sufficiently to enable some form of early warning system to be developed, but in the meantime there are imho too many publicity hungry spoofers out there.
 
Irish Rover said:
I guess it's inevitable there will be a big earthquake in İstanbul at some time in the future, given it's location on a major fault line. The 1999 quake in Izmit was close, but still far enough away to prevent massive casualties in İstanbul. A huge number of the buildings in the city and suburbs are old and poorly constructed, and would not withstand a major earthquake. Additionally, there is a huge fire risk if it occurred in the winter time as many people in the poorer areas are using wood burners (soba) illegally in apartments and squats. The most recent serious earthquakes 2 years ago couldn't have been further away from İstanbul, and I wouldn't put much credence in a theory about a flow in the direction of Istanbul. Hopefully science will advance sufficiently to enable some form of early warning system to be developed, but in the meantime there are imho too many publicity hungry spoofers out there.
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I believe there have been major fires in the past in Istanbul, and I don't doubt that much of the building is pretty makeshift, even post Ottoman wooden times. I seem to remember that self-building without permission comes into at least one novel by Orhan Pamuk. When I was last in Turkey about twenty years ago there were many unfinished buildings everywhere. We were told that some tax or other was only payable on completion, so people stopped short of adding the top floor to avoid paying. I don't know if this is still the case.
 
johnalison said:
... When I was last in Turkey about twenty years ago there were many unfinished buildings everywhere. We were told that some tax or other was only payable on completion, so people stopped short of adding the top floor to avoid paying. I don't know if this is still the case.
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When I started holidaying in Greece ~40 years ago I was told the same explanation of why there were so many occupied but apparently unfinished buildings!
 
johnalison said:
I believe there have been major fires in the past in Istanbul, and I don't doubt that much of the building is pretty makeshift, even post Ottoman wooden times. I seem to remember that self-building without permission comes into at least one novel by Orhan Pamuk. When I was last in Turkey about twenty years ago there were many unfinished buildings everywhere. We were told that some tax or other was only payable on completion, so people stopped short of adding the top floor to avoid paying. I don't know if this is still the case.
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Building regulations were updated and upgraded considerably after the 1999 earthquake, and if the new regulations were adhered to and enforced Türkiye would be a much safer country. Unfortunately, as was established in the earthquakes 2 years ago, many builders take shortcuts and use much less iron and inferior concrete with the connivance of official inspectors. Another problem which contributed to thousands of death was a practice of removing support columns after final inspection - this was done in many multistorey buildings to make the ground floor more suitable and valuable for commercial uses such as supermarkets and shops. Small numbers of developers, builders and owners have been prosecuted but we've yet to see convictions and sentences at a level which will stop this happening again.
 
Irish Rover said:
Building regulations were updated and upgraded considerably after the 1999 earthquake, and if the new regulations were adhered to and enforced Türkiye would be a much safer country. Unfortunately, as was established in the earthquakes 2 years ago, many builders take shortcuts and use much less iron and inferior concrete with the connivance of official inspectors. Another problem which contributed to thousands of death was a practice of removing support columns after final inspection - this was done in many multistorey buildings to make the ground floor more suitable and valuable for commercial uses such as supermarkets and shops. Small numbers of developers, builders and owners have been prosecuted but we've yet to see convictions and sentences at a level which will stop this happening again.
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And I thought Spain was bad😳
 
johnalison said:
I saw an item on YouTube by ‘Geology Hub’ about this a day or two ago. Apparently there is an ancient undersea volcano NW of Santorini where the main activity is, actually over quite a wide area. There was some talk about magma activity in the area but at the time the risk did not seem high, but very large eruptions have of course occurred in historic times.
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I was wondering about that, too.
 
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