Demand for moorings plummeting?

[RupertW]

Re: Nope !

Humm might say, as an opinion, that the present silly low interest rates were intended as a sop to the younger Home Buyers, the results of this ultra low interest rate is to penalize the Older Saver as their interest earned (thats EARNED) is now diminutive so all that savings over many years now has to be spent to survive, so not passed onto their family, plus the low interest rates have only really enable the house prices to be raised quickly, which has not helped those youngsters anyway, except with those fortunate to have got extra well paid jobs, probably screwing others of similar age ?

Might suggest that the ultra and unrealistic interest rate have probably been responsible for the demise of that old institution, the Building Societies

I don't think the low interest rates were put in with any intention of helping the young - I think it was all about ensuring businesses got through the late noughies recessions so that banks wouldn't have a lot of defaulting debtors, so its help to the banking system not youngsters.

But I agree that the impact of low interest rates have been bad for young and old for the reasons you state without having the expected effect of high growth and therefore strong wage growth.

 

[bedouin]

Re: Nope !

Actually Major phased out MIRAS (or was it Thatcher) - but I'm not making a party political point - any party will follow the voters, just in different ways. Right now only Corbyn is mad and radical enough to redistribute from old to young and i think even he'd bottle it

IIRC Thatcher froze it but it was abolished by Brown in 2000.

The irony is that the Bliar/Brown govenrment did massive damage to the prospects of a whole generation and yet the yoof seem keen to vote for a repeat dose.

 

[RupertW]

Re: Nope !

IIRC Thatcher froze it but it was abolished by Brown in 2000.

The irony is that the Bliar/Brown govenrment did massive damage to the prospects of a whole generation and yet the yoof seem keen to vote for a repeat dose.

I think the momentum lot believe that Blair (who I am still a great fan of) and Brown (who I have always detested) are both totally different to Corbyn so they will be voting for a completely different party. If they bother to vote.

 

[solent clown]

Re: Nope !

maybe the demands for moorings are plummeting because people dont want to talk about politics and intergenerational resentment at the waterside.
I remember being told not to talk about politics religion or sex whenever we interacted with civilian clients (or the American military for some reason)
:encouragement:

 

[Quandary]

Re: Nope !

No, I did not finish my education until 1969 when I eventually qualified as an architect, unusually, because (1) i was given rubbish careers advice at school at a time when I still thought teachers knew stuff and (2) because, also unusually, I studied part time for most of it, though that ladder was pulled up soon after, it is a 7 year course. To suggest that I was privileged to live, work, establish my career and build my home through the years of rampant inflation is nonsense which could only be argued by those that did not experience it.
Academic opportunity is available now in a way that it never was then and effort demanded from students is a fraction of what it was. (Though as a grumpy old tosser I still believe that the Technical Colleges and Polytechs. served a far more useful function than the Universities they morphed into.) I employed enough students to know how much the value of qualifications eroded through the eighties and nineties.

 

[jac]

Re: Nope !

maybe the demands for moorings are plummeting because people dont want to talk about politics and intergenerational resentment at the waterside.
I remember being told not to talk about politics religion or sex whenever we interacted with civilian clients (or the American military for some reason)
:encouragement:

Yes - this has drifted massively into Lounge territory!!

 

[dgadee]

Re: Nope !

Yes, "New Labour" and the "Third Way". Hopefully gone if not forgotten (see PFI).

 

[Birdie]

Re: Nope !

maybe the demands for moorings are plummeting because people dont want to talk about politics and intergenerational resentment at the waterside.
I remember being told not to talk about politics religion or sex whenever we interacted with civilian clients (or the American military for some reason)
:encouragement:

Back on topic, as a 49 yr old who has owned his present 6 metre boat for 3 years, this maybe my last season for a while as the costs are getting difficult to justify, even on a drying (2 hrs access either side of HW) walk ashore mooring in Chichester harbour.

There are so many other things/hobbies that are cost affective, it would not surprise me in the least that younger people are choosing other ways to spend what money they have after paying the mortgage/rent.

 

[steveej]

Re: Nope !

SO if you were born during the war you are by definition not a baby boomer. Equally your brother in the Lancaster is not a baby boomer but is by definition one of the ones who do deserve the credit that old git was mentioning.

You ( and moreso your brother) took huge risks to their personal safety that people born from say 1945 - 1965 have no concept of.

Those born post war have the NHS, free education the whole of their young lives but then pulled the ladder up as they went. They stopped free education and introduced debt once they had finished. The had a mass housebuilding program which was then stopped. Now they are the NIMBYS campaigning against new houses as it will damage house prices. Still big campaigns though for more for pensioners - look at the pressure to keep the triple lock that was only introduced as boomers started to retire and realised they needed more money.

I appreciate that as individuals, no one person did all that but those people who are now in their 60's and 70's were the ones running the country for the last 20 years, be they government ministers, civil servants, senior managers in business, the NHGS, councils or merely a large bulge of voters.

As for inflation not helping. That is exactly thepoint. Go back to the 1970's and whilst inflation was always double digit, pay rises kept pace at least as much. SO the old wisdom of extending your mortgage as much as possible to buy as big as possible then sit tight for 5 years and watch inflation erode the real value of the debt whilst your income and house rose steadily. Of course it shafted the pensioners at the time but that didn't matter as they were old, had only fought in the war and due to lack of health care in early years, there weren't many of them to vote anyway.

Of course now the baby boomers are older, we have a triple lock, granny bonds through NS&I.
As for younger generations inheriting I'm not sure they will. Some of course will do very well but have a couple spend a year in a nursing home and the equity soon goes.

EVen if they inherit, those who are baby boomers are now mid 50's to about 70. Their children will be 30's and 40's. By the time the baby boomers start dying in serious numbers, their children will be 50's and 60's ( if not more) so a bit old for them to start enjoying the fruits of the inheritance but maybe enough for them to pass onto their own children who by then might be 20's or 30's and needing a hand.

Excellent post.

My kids (currently toddlers) will be the ones to cash in on their grandparents (babyboomers) and our wealth not us. Everyone is living longer and we'll probably be in our 70's and retired by the time our parents pop their clogs. I have already seen this with my own parents who are in their 60's. They don't even need the inheritance because they are already retired on final salary pension schemes.

The next down the line on defined contribution schemes will need it mind but they'll probably be too old to benefit.

Perhaps it is a case of the good times and not so good times switch between each generation?

Someone up thread mentioned it used to be a goal to own your own yacht by your early thirties. For the majority nowadays its a goal to buy a house by your early thirties never mind a yacht regardless of whether you choose to have a smart phone or not.

We are in the process of moving house in Bristol. The prices are quite frankly nuts! I see another bubble waiting to burst.

I don't blame the boomers. It is human nature to make the best out of what you have got and the circumstances you are in. But I do think it's wrong to say that young people don't want to save any money and have smart phones thats why they can't afford a house, yacht etc.

And I think therein lies the problem of the ageing population of boat owners as a general observation (of course certain honey pots such as the solent aka London-on-Sea this may not be the case) in that there are lots more hobbies out there that are much more cost effective and with a lessor time commitment to justify.

 

[bedouin]

Re: Nope !

SO if you were born during the war you are by definition not a baby boomer. Equally your brother in the Lancaster is not a baby boomer but is by definition one of the ones who do deserve the credit that old git was mentioning.

You ( and moreso your brother) took huge risks to their personal safety that people born from say 1945 - 1965 have no concept of.

Those born post war have the NHS, free education the whole of their young lives but then pulled the ladder up as they went. They stopped free education and introduced debt once they had finished. The had a mass housebuilding program which was then stopped. Now they are the NIMBYS campaigning against new houses as it will damage house prices. Still big campaigns though for more for pensioners - look at the pressure to keep the triple lock that was only introduced as boomers started to retire and realised they needed more money.

I appreciate that as individuals, no one person did all that but those people who are now in their 60's and 70's were the ones running the country for the last 20 years, be they government ministers, civil servants, senior managers in business, the NHGS, councils or merely a large bulge of voters.

As for inflation not helping. That is exactly thepoint. Go back to the 1970's and whilst inflation was always double digit, pay rises kept pace at least as much. SO the old wisdom of extending your mortgage as much as possible to buy as big as possible then sit tight for 5 years and watch inflation erode the real value of the debt whilst your income and house rose steadily. Of course it shafted the pensioners at the time but that didn't matter as they were old, had only fought in the war and due to lack of health care in early years, there weren't many of them to vote anyway.

Of course now the baby boomers are older, we have a triple lock, granny bonds through NS&I.
As for younger generations inheriting I'm not sure they will. Some of course will do very well but have a couple spend a year in a nursing home and the equity soon goes.

EVen if they inherit, those who are baby boomers are now mid 50's to about 70. Their children will be 30's and 40's. By the time the baby boomers start dying in serious numbers, their children will be 50's and 60's ( if not more) so a bit old for them to start enjoying the fruits of the inheritance but maybe enough for them to pass onto their own children who by then might be 20's or 30's and needing a hand.

That is a very one-sided view point that is easily contradicted by just looking around you.

This generation (say those in their 20s & 30s) are the most affluent had healthiest in history. They have a standard of livng far higher than I enjoyed when I was their age (I am generation X). They enjoy more foreign holidays, socialising, eating out and range of leisure activities than we did. Choice in everything from food, holiday, education, career, leisure is vastly greater than we enjoyed

I have just looked at the actuarial figures and my sons at their age stand more chance of reaching 90 than I do at mine - and I have only half as long to go to get there.

Yes tuition fees are an issue but in balance to that firstly twice as many get the opportunity to go to University than when we went and the increase in their earning potential in their 30s more than covers the repayments of the student loan.

In spite of a lot of propaganda housing today is not significantly less affordable than when we were starting out (because rock bottom interest offset greater capital costs to a large extent).

How many people here genuinely believe we had it better and would not rather be our children's generation?

 

[steveej]

Re: Nope !

That is a very one-sided view point that is easily contradicted by just looking around you.

This generation (say those in their 20s & 30s) are the most affluent had healthiest in history. They have a standard of livng far higher than I enjoyed when I was their age (I am generation X). They enjoy more foreign holidays, socialising, eating out and range of leisure activities than we did. Choice in everything from food, holiday, education, career, leisure is vastly greater than we enjoyed

I have just looked at the actuarial figures and my sons at their age stand more chance of reaching 90 than I do at mine - and I have only half as long to go to get there.

Yes tuition fees are an issue but in balance to that firstly twice as many get the opportunity to go to University than when we went and the increase in their earning potential in their 30s more than covers the repayments of the student loan.

In spite of a lot of propaganda housing today is not significantly less affordable than when we were starting out (because rock bottom interest offset greater capital costs to a large extent).

How many people here genuinely believe we had it better and would not rather be our children's generation?

I'm afraid your numbers don't stack up.

400k house, 4 bedrooms, no garage, one parking space on a 20 year old housing development where the person who bought the new build 20 years ago bought it because they had no interest in DIY is now 20 years old with nothing having ever been done to it. Minimum 10% deposit needed = 40k, mortgage = 360k.

You can borrow 4 x salary = 90k. Fine when two of you earn 45k until the kids come along and then your hit with 2k a month child care costs which makes it pointless for the other one to go to work. So now your down at 45k x 4 = 180k max mortgage on a two bed house thats worth 210k (with a 30k deposit).

When my eldest was borne in 2014 I was 32, wife 31. We were the youngest in the maternity unit by a fair margin.

With only a 10% deposit the interest isn't low and over a 30 year term you pay minimal capital off and are relying on the bubble to increase in size (inflation would actually be good provided wages kept pace).

The fact that Sainsbury's now sells 'Parma' ham, Dragon fruit and a sit in meal for ten pounds and is of no relevance to the early 30 year old's predicament of getting on the housing ladder. The fact that to go on holiday to Thailand is cheaper than going on hols to Spain in this day and age shows things have changed - and that's an issue caused by the EU single currency.

I'ts a question of priorities. Getting on the housing ladder must come before buying a yacht and seen as this now takes much longer than it did in years gone by, I believe there in lies the problem of the ageing demographic of sailing and what will be the reduced demand for moorings and second hand boats in years to come.

 

[Birdie]

Re: Nope !

I'm afraid your numbers don't stack up.

400k house, 4 bedrooms, no garage, one parking space on a 20 year old housing development where the person who bought the new build 20 years ago bought it because they had no interest in DIY is now 20 years old with nothing having ever been done to it. Minimum 10% deposit needed = 40k, mortgage = 360k.

You can borrow 4 x salary = 90k. Fine when two of you earn 45k until the kids come along and then your hit with 2k a month child care costs which makes it pointless for the other one to go to work. So now your down at 45k x 4 = 180k max mortgage on a two bed house thats worth 210k (with a 30k deposit).

When my eldest was borne in 2014 I was 32, wife 31. We were the youngest in the maternity unit by a fair margin.

With only a 10% deposit the interest isn't low and over a 30 year term you pay minimal capital off and are relying on the bubble to increase in size (inflation would actually be good provided wages kept pace).

The fact that Sainsbury's now sells 'Parma' ham, Dragon fruit and a sit in meal for ten pounds and is of no relevance to the early 30 year old's predicament of getting on the housing ladder. The fact that to go on holiday to Thailand is cheaper than going on hols to Spain in this day and age shows things have changed - and that's an issue caused by the EU single currency.

I'ts a question of priorities. Getting on the housing ladder must come before buying a yacht and seen as this now takes much longer than it did in years gone by, I believe there in lies the problem of the ageing demographic of sailing and what will be the reduced demand for moorings and second hand boats in years to come.

Well said.

I suspect there will have to be an adjustment in the cost of leisure boating for companies to survive in the future, mostly in the South where moorings and house prices are at their highest.

 

[bedouin]

Re: Nope !

I'm afraid your numbers don't stack up.

400k house, 4 bedrooms, no garage, one parking space on a 20 year old housing development where the person who bought the new build 20 years ago bought it because they had no interest in DIY is now 20 years old with nothing having ever been done to it. Minimum 10% deposit needed = 40k, mortgage = 360k..

They aren't my figures they are ONS figures for affordability.

When I bought my first house for 3x salary at 15% interest - so 45% of gross salary in interest - and finding a 25% deposit.

Now you might buy at 5x but 2.5% interest - that is only 12.5% so a much lower proportion of income albeit a much larger deposit. I know it is hard to get on the property ladder but it is not as bad as people make out compared to what we faced.

It may well have been easier for people in the late 90s and early 00s but what people face now is not that much harder than what we did - and they have many advantages. I can't think any of my contemporaries would think we were better off than this generation.

 

[Jonas]

Re: Nope !

All I get from all this is that the middle classes feel hard done by, whatever the generation and they all worked hard for what they have and don't get as much as they deserve.
Plus ca change.

 

[Quandary]

Re: Nope !

It is all O'Leary's fault, back in the day if you wanted to sail you bought a boat, now you hop on a cheap flight to somewhere nice and rent one.

 

[steveej]

Re: Nope !

They aren't my figures they are ONS figures for affordability.

When I bought my first house for 3x salary at 15% interest - so 45% of gross salary in interest - and finding a 25% deposit.

Now you might buy at 5x but 2.5% interest - that is only 12.5% so a much lower proportion of income albeit a much larger deposit. I know it is hard to get on the property ladder but it is not as bad as people make out compared to what we faced.

It may well have been easier for people in the late 90s and early 00s but what people face now is not that much harder than what we did - and they have many advantages. I can't think any of my contemporaries would think we were better off than this generation.

I'm afraid it is not as simple as that. 45% of gross salary on interest is not 3 x salary @ 15% interest.

When I mentioned mortgage amortisation to both my parents and in-laws, their eyes glazed over. Not surprising they didn't know what I was talking about as they never had to worry about such things.

And proportionate change of 1.5 to 2.5% interest rates on a large loan is much larger than 15.5 to 16.5% on a proportionally smaller loan and when pay rises don't keep up with inflation its pretty straightforward to see who is most exposed.

Nevertheless, this is about demand for moorings going down. My own father left school with no GCSE's, walked straight into an apprenticeship, never without work, final salary pension scheme, done very well for himself. Try that approach nowadays and see how it works for you.

For the vast majority of people it takes longer to get on the housing ladder, longer to settle down when people have to move away to find work (and a coupling partner) etc etc.

Yachting is not going to be a priority for the vast majority of 20 and 30 year old's of today unless they have a burning desire to do it and are fortunate enough that they can afford it ( after doing all the more important stuff). These people are outlyers and you only have to walk into any club, marina in the country and you can see it for yourself.

 

[bedouin]

Re: Nope !

I'm afraid it is not as simple as that. 45% of gross salary on interest is not 3 x salary @ 15% interest..

You are going to have to explain that one to me. Seems a pretty simple equation.

 

[steveej]

Re: Nope !

You are going to have to explain that one to me. Seems a pretty simple equation.

I'm afraid if you have to ask a question like that...............You've proved my point

 

[Resolution]

Re: Nope !

I'm afraid if you have to ask a question like that...............You've proved my point

Well I understand what Bedouin was trying to show.
Case 1 could borrow 3 x gross salary . With interest rate at 15% the annual interest payable would be 15/100 times 3 x Gross salary, equals 45/100 x gross salary.

Case 2 could borrow 5 x gross salary. With interest at only 2.5% the annual interest payable would be 2.5/100 times 5 x Gross salary, equals 12.5/100 x gross salary.

So no question but case 2 is spending much less of his/her gross salary on interest.

But one should remember that the 15 or 16% rate was a peak rate, not a long term average rate. Boy, did it hurt at the time, but I think if you want a ten year average rate you would be looking at nearer 8 to 10% pa. Someone else can go and check the statistics.

PS Our first flat cost £10,000 in 1972 and we needed to combine both my salary and that of my wife, including all benefits and luncheon vouchers, to persuade the building society to go to 4 times gross. A lovely elderly aunt came up with the deposit of about £1,000. Afraid I cannot remember the interest rate, but of course there was no such thing as interest only mortgages, we had to repay principal as well at the same time. Didn't leave much for any other necessities, let alone luxuries like holidays abroad.

 

[PhillM]

Re: Nope !

Yachting is not going to be a priority for the vast majority of 20 and 30 year old's of today unless they have a burning desire to do it and are fortunate enough that they can afford it .

Or judging by some marinas in summer - are pretty, female and like the idea of an older man with a bigger boat!