Accurate Weather Forecasts?

[daverebbettes]

I know it is a difficult science so we shouldn't get too upset with forecasters but does anybody have experience with a forecaster that is consistently accurate.

Myweather2, Met Office, WeatherPro etc. all seem to disagree with each other, sometimes considerably. One day I find one to be accurate but the next day another.

 

[VicS]

I know it is a difficult science so we shouldn't get too upset with forecasters but does anybody have experience with a forecaster that is consistently accurate.

Myweather2, Met Office, WeatherPro etc. all seem to disagree with each other, sometimes considerably. One day I find one to be accurate but the next day another.

The atmosphere is an unstable system. You cannot accurately forecast the behavior of an unstable system!

 

[Spirit (of Glenans)]

The atmosphere is an unstable system. You cannot accurately forecast the behavior of an unstable system!

I find Windguru to be consistent. That being said, meteorologists tell us that their models assume a uniform globe ,and allowances must be made for landmasses, which cause local variations in weather.

 

[Leighb]

A local forecaster gave a talk to the Club a year or so ago. One thing I particularly remember was. Look at several models and if they agree it will probably be correct, but if they vary a lot then no one has any idea!!

 

[macd]

The atmosphere is an unstable system. You cannot accurately forecast the behavior of an unstable system!

Very true, but at some times it's stabler than at others.

A prudent habit is to monitor whichever weather sites you come to depend on on a regular basis as the day(s) of interest approaches. Forecasts which remain the same for a particular day can be expected to be more reliable. Forecasts which fluctuate wildly, don't bank on.

 

[Neil_Y]

Depends where you are, UK is always going to be difficult.
I compare a few forecasts but like yr.no

Here in Stockholm the forecasts are pretty much spot on

 

[Tim Good]

For very accurate wind then use the RASP forecast for paragliding and other airsports. It predicts accurately the minor differences around the coast. Select on the left Wind 10m and the day and time you want. Example Image attached below.

http://rasp-uk.uk/RASPtableGM/RASPtableGM.html

 

[yoda]

I know it is a difficult science so we shouldn't get too upset with forecasters but does anybody have experience with a forecaster that is consistently accurate.

Myweather2, Met Office, WeatherPro etc. all seem to disagree with each other, sometimes considerably. One day I find one to be accurate but the next day another.

The Met Office inshore water forecast is accurate within 1 beaufort scale for 90% of the time. I may agree that they can be quite 'open' because of the areas being covered but because they are compiled by a forecaster and are the result of human interpretation of models tend to be pretty dependable.

Yoda

 

[ianat182]

I use Accuweather for my home location ( Android) and find it accurate most of the time; you can change location too as required,shows wind strengths; radar views and precipitation expected as a percentage of certainty. All warnings displayed too.
Also gives hourly progression for the day and days ahead.
ianat182

 

[tudorsailor]

I know it is a difficult science so we shouldn't get too upset with forecasters but does anybody have experience with a forecaster that is consistently accurate.

Myweather2, Met Office, WeatherPro etc. all seem to disagree with each other, sometimes considerably. One day I find one to be accurate but the next day another.

If you sail in the Med I would recommend Open Skiron loaded into SailGb for route planning

TudorSailor

 

[Caladh]

We use Passage weather for long term planning i.e a week or so ahead, which we've always found pretty accurate.

 

[JumbleDuck]

The atmosphere is an unstable system. You cannot accurately forecast the behavior of an unstable system!

There is nothing about instability which makes it inherently unforecastable. Unstable systems are accurately modelled all over the place. Were you perhaps thinking of chaotic systems?

 

[JumbleDuck]

I know it is a difficult science so we shouldn't get too upset with forecasters but does anybody have experience with a forecaster that is consistently accurate.

I find both XCWeather and Windguru pretty good. They both use the same underlying data, so differences are just a matter of the interpolation algorithms they use.

The shipping and inshore waters forecasts are pretty useless, because however good the underlying data, smoodging (technical term) it out over twenty four hours and areas of hundreds or thousands of square miles wrecks it. It's a bit like taking a picture with a Leica and then coarsening it to 10dpi.

 

[rayshow]

it's worth to use several weather sites to get an accurate forecast. And keep in mind that all weather apps are going to calculate their forecast from the same data so accuracy isn’t going to improve with a different app

 

[Tim Good]

it's worth to use several resources to get an accurate forecast

Yes. If you use a forecast like Predict Winds Offshore app and then compare all the forecast models they have... if they all say the same thing you can expect the forecast to be more accurate. If different then it’s more unstable. Generally I compare GFS and ECMF.

 

[NormanS]

Just use lots of different weather sites, and choose the one that predicts weather that best suits your purpose.

 

[KellysEye]

When long distance I found GFS was the best but nothing is !00% accurate.

 

[Stemar]

Just use lots of different weather sites, and choose the one that predicts weather that best suits your purpose.

That sounds like a good recipe for some rough water sailing

It's when forecasts differ that they're more likely to be wrong, and it also tends to be when there's a fair bit of energy around, meaning stronger winds.

 

[PuffTheMagicDragon]

Any forecast is an educated guess. A very educated guess, true, that shows what can be expected. However nothing beats the Mk1 eyeball of the experienced sailor on the boat at that particular moment at that particular location.
I sail in the Central Mediterranean and I find that WINDY is quite accurate and has excellent animations of weather systems and, zooming in to the area of interest, one can see how their movements are expected to be over seven days. It works for me and serves my needs.

 

[dancrane]

I find Windguru to be consistent.

So do I. Every time it predicts that the wind will be light enough to singlehand the dinghy, it proves to be stronger on the water. :apathy: