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runners and riders

duncan

Active member
Joined
16 May 2001
Messages
9,443
Location
Home mid Kent - Boat @ Poole
with the perfect weather guaranteed for the weekend ( /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif) I seem to have a llose list around:-
GC1
makkers
ianj68
overdraught + another
kevB
me + another
pentane (already there waiting!)

departing Sat for Braye (lunch) then St PP from various ports between Poole and Chichester..............

returning Monday, Tuesday and 'at some point, maybe'........for a couple of us

with over 50% first timers it promises to be some arrival party!
 

adrianb

New member
Joined
16 Mar 2005
Messages
900
Location
Hants
Sounds great, but have you seen the forecast.............. ?

But us down for a maybe, depending on how the weather hopefully, changes !


Adrian
 

duncan

Active member
Joined
16 May 2001
Messages
9,443
Location
Home mid Kent - Boat @ Poole
[ QUOTE ]
have you seen the forecast.............. ?


[/ QUOTE ] no - why?

/forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Saturday is giving N3 going W2 so the forecast is great - of course what actually turns up is another thing!

Nothing too bad in the wings for those returning Mon/Tues but increasing Wed /Thu then easing again into the following week.

Sat adn Sunday look better over there than here for a bit of Sun but then it does look depressingly showery all next week so I will sit and watch GC1's telly and drink his booze........... /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif
 

rickp

Active member
Joined
10 Nov 2002
Messages
5,910
Location
Australia
Each forecast iteration seems to flipflop from looking nice, to looking nasty and back. This mornings forecast for the channel on Monday do not look great. WindGuru for instance...

Rick
 

duncan

Active member
Joined
16 May 2001
Messages
9,443
Location
Home mid Kent - Boat @ Poole
thanks for that Rick

definitely worse over there - their model is giving the wind in Swanage for example as this windguru - swanage which is under half that predicted on the other side of the channel. I am assuming it doesn't take into account the local shelter from the direction!

As ever everyones going to have their own mind up about the weather - personally I am always able to turn back even if I have spent weeks looking forward to the trip and loading up etc - if I get out South past Anvil Point and I don't like it I will turn round!
 

rickp

Active member
Joined
10 Nov 2002
Messages
5,910
Location
Australia
Yes, I don't think they take into account local shelter - its just a point on the GFS grid (or the merging of the nearest points). The GFS grid seems to have a row of points just north of the coast, and another row mid-channel - so you can interpolate a bit (wind is generally stronger then the model gives if its a southerly for instance).

With Windguru you can give it hints if you wish (see Wind Modifications), but I tend to leave it at the base model predictions . Also, if you're a subscriber, then the mm5 model can be a little more fine grained.

We do much the same as you - see what its like and then change plans accordingly.

Rick
 

Medskipper

Active member
Joined
20 Dec 2001
Messages
2,620
Location
Somewhere in the Med!
Duncan, I have just got back from the channel isles. I don't want to put you all off, but the seas can be very big across the channel and can look fine when starting out. Its not always as easy as you think to turn back. We had an awful crossing, but it only picked up when we were just over half way across! I had turn stand off and turn around when several large tankers came along and it was even worse when we turned around. The closer we got to Alderney the worse it got, we were in 4-5 metre swells and when in the troughs there was waves higher than my flybridge, my cruiser is a Birchwood 37.

Take my advice, if the forecast is anything over 2-3 with a slight sea, don't go! you have inexperienced boaters with you!

Barry
 

kevinw

New member
Joined
17 May 2005
Messages
25
I would second the advice from barry. We got back from Cherbourg tonight at around 8:30 in a Targa 27 I made a bad call & should have turned back but didn't. One of the worst crossings I've made. (Broken shower head, t.v aeriel ripped off radar arch, 3 mtrs rubbing strake forced off, lots of water in bilge & cabin (Sink tap turned on by flying cabin contents) & thats only after a quick look tonight.

Don't mean to stick my nose in but would like to advise any inexperienced boaters to think atleast twice before going if its any more than a slight sea.

Kevin.
 
Joined
11 Jun 2002
Messages
64,559
Location
Tesla in Space
As they were setting of Sat, I suspect they'd have first rate knowledge of conditions, and will report back once they return from where ever they've been, which might not be CI's
 

theforeman

New member
Joined
6 Sep 2005
Messages
1,472
they appeared to be bbqing on studland beach at 1400hrs after spending the night in poole. ( gleaned from mobo forum )
 

duncan

Active member
Joined
16 May 2001
Messages
9,443
Location
Home mid Kent - Boat @ Poole
you are always polite Brendan!

for those popping in here this is what happened in practice -

many phone calls and considerations resulted in the inevitable conclusion that conditions just wern't going to match up with needs of the group as a whole or many individuals!

Despite the craft being well tested throuh the season etc it just didn't make sense.

However that left GC1 and I ourselves who had the benefit of 9 days and, in GC1's case a bigger boat. In my case a 6 1/2 hour crossing to Alderney at the beginning of May into a S5/6 gave me a clue as to what to expect/avoid too!

I headed off early Saturday and got about 8 miles clear of Anvil Point. From past experiences I find it necessary to get this far out to guage the true conditions, especially on larger tides. Basically whilst the wind generated stuff was fine there was clearly a significant swell coming in from the Altlantic and this was going to become an increasing factor rather than decreasing. Although Cherbourg would have provided a good angle to the swell we were out of contact with the other member of the party anyway so decided to call it a day - also with everything coming from the West / SW spending a week in Cherbourg didn't look to promising either!

We therefore diverted to Weymouth, agreeing the destination with GC1 once we were back in coms range........they were anchored in Newton Creek having coffee...........! This had the advantage of a good steping off point for a direct run to St PP if conditions improved.

Needless to say we had a great time in Weymouth with W Marina managing to fit us in for a quiter night than the harbour walls (I had my young daughter with me). GC1 ended up in Poole (as other posts about lifesaving etc outlined.

The following day we arranged to meet in Lulworth, but ended up in Studland..............

The forecast were looking grim to Charlotte and I left GC1 overnighting in Studland and ran back to our berth in Poole.

Pete ran over to Weymouth first thing Monday..........

Tuesday saw another possible window for Wednesday returning Friday/Sat so we ran over to Weymouth again to meet up and await developments.

Tuesday night Met was going down the pan fast so we pulled stumps and ran back to Poole via Studland; with Charlotte and I bailing out to return home that night.

Frustrating overall but some sun sea and sangria (equivilant)..........

Throughout we were in contact with other forumites on conditions around the CIs - for which I thank those contributing.
 
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