The reality in the solent has been a hard NE wind with some fairly powerful gusts for some weeks now. My forecast gives 14kn with gusts up to 20 or so. We’ve had a few quiet days, but tomorrow and Saturday won’t be the quiet ones. F4-6 is more like the truth.
No sea breeze effects with a NE gradient wind. It’s just the beastly easterlies, not at all unusual at this time of year, but maybe more persistent.
Here in general I’d say you are right, unless the forecast is for lighter conditions, in which case there may be none at all.
The thread I remember was about overly pessimistic gust forecasts, which apparently quite a few people experienced last year. Seeing a lot of days with "11 gusting 30" and actually getting 11 gusting 15 or so. That said, after the thread I did also experience a day forecast "18 gusting 28" which actually gave me 30+ in the worst direction near steady. I think that balanced out all the other forecasts on its own.
My wife has a long held grudge against me for the last time we came home via the Roompot. The forecast was F4 gusting to about 15kn. The current runs at around 4kn for a short section that we knew would be a bit bumpy in these conditions but we are unprepared for a F6 on the nose and true wind in the mid 20s. The seas were monstrous by local standards and as we motor-sailed straight into them they swept across our deck in the manner of a Cape Horner. I quite enjoyed it.
I don’t believe general forecasts from general tv and so on.
That sounds like the time I thought F4-6 S becoming SW was a good forecast to come home to Gosport from Weymouth in a Snapdragon 24, but the true wind was more like top of 7. Madame still hasn't forgiven me that one.
