Weekend - would you go

Gwylan said:
Sympathise with your predicament.
Going through the similar mental debate at the moment - tend to err on the side of caution. We have other issues of 'tidal gates' that mean it's go on Saturday morning or scrap the trip.
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I'm in the same predicament as you Gwylan. I was hoping to go from Portishead to Milford Haven this weekend, but it just seems like it might be a bit too full on especially with a west wind directly over a tide which is bound to happen somewhere. It's a shame as the weather just seems to be at a tipping point between it being a really good trip and it being a really bad trip. If it were a reach in these conditions, I'd go for it.

Sounds like they've got a different predicament down on the south coast though!
 
The weather that's coming is for experienced sailors only. It will be a pleasure for sailors but hell for anyone else.
 
jason -and the arguenauts said:
no I wouldnt. I go out in anything racing with the lads on board but have a golden rule with family of not going if the forecast mentions a 6. Forecatst have tolerances and a 6 can be either a 5 or a 7.
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Agree about the forecast tolerance. Had this last week in the Solent. F5 forecast and ended up with a 6/7. Could fun with a suitable crew on board but I had kids so we only went from one to another port.
 
To go or not to go

Thanks for everyones contributions.

In my opinion its marginal and I need to look up more weather sites.

FYI if it was the scuttlebutt trip with experienced sailers I would go. With SWMBO and other I think its Yarmouth tonight. Leave tomorrow morning early enough to go to guernseyand stick our nose out of the neddles and either go back if really bad or enjoy Saturday in Poole of if everyone happy go for Guernsey. Sunday looks OK for Guernsey.

Really keen to get to Guernsey asap as then on to Paimpol to meet another formite that lives near there and we don't meet them often enough these days.

Lets see what the skippers says - if I do it right it will be his introduction to the loneliness of command as in reality the skipper can usually influence the crew to agree with his decision.

We will be going Guernsey-Paimpol-St Malo-Carteret over the next 9 days so if anyone sees us in Port say hi as there is always a beer or wine on board!!

Very concious that off Cap la Hague its always 1 force higher than forecast in my opinion. As its a reach and 43' AWB boat its the waves/swell and the slamming that will decide comfort level. Where's a Rustler when you need one!! Funny as SWMBO will helm the Wayfarer at sea in F6 yet hates it when the big boat heels too much. We have come 3rd in a regional event off Shoreham once but we were last as no other boats survived!!
 
The forecast I've seen on Windfinder don't look great for Sat, Sun and doubtful on Monday. There's a possiblity on Tuesday. But beaing in mind it's been blowing old boots from the west for some time, and even more by the time the weekend comes, it could be quite lumpy out there

I'm looking at where to go for the weekend and set off early Tuesday, but there are just the two of us.
 
You will not find the answer to your question directly from a weather forecast site. Forecasts are regularly one or two forces out, the BBC wind forecasting is pathetic. It also depends on point of sail, current and duration of blow. You should look at a synoptic chart and look at the isobars, the smaller the low and more tightly packed they are, the more it's going to blow. You lean a lot from the position of areas of low pressure relative to where you'll be, is it passing to the North, South or over you? I find they give, with interpretation, a better feel for what might happen.
 
I'm currently stuck in Milford Haven needing to get back to Cardiff. SWMBO and myself sailed here on Tuesday and the forecast was so very wrong. We were caught out in very rough seas and gusts of over 33kts. We had a F8 gale warning as we approached Milford and had to endure narrowly missing a lightning storm. A far cry from the F3-4 occ 5 that was forcast.

The point is that now SWMBO wants to sell up as it has shaken her confidence. My advice is not to try for Guernsey with females or novices this weekend as the forcast is worse than what I was given.
 
For Saturday I am seeing F6 for a bit but worse is its geting F6 at end of journey approaching Guernsey where for Sunday it just touched F6 at 16.00 for Guernsey. Considering size of boat , its a reach and its mostly F4-5 I think Sunday id a goer for us but will review that on latest info at Saturday night.
 
I now always add 1F to all weather forcasts I see. It accounts for gusts and inaccuracies in the forecast, in most cases, ish!

Looking at XC, unless I had a fully competant crew I wouldn't go till maybe Monday.

Whilst you have a plan, the only reason you have a plan is to change it! We are off in a week for two week sailing. Whilst I have a plan in mind, I will guarantee it will change.

Whilst I would not recommend the ferry to Guernsey, made me feel sick last year going to St Malo to pick up the boat; hateful craft, there is always the plane. Speaking with people in the marina, a lot of people get the "boys" to take the boat out and then fly the family out to join them. Good flights to Alderny as well.

Have fun!
 
Our dive tomorrow off the back of the Wight now cancelled. F4 do-able but F5-6 to risky for the average club diver and the underwater vis will be dreadful, no natural light at 30m and lots of sediment from the gales this week means it would be like diving in brown windsor soup :(

Pete
 
zlod said:
I'm in the same predicament as you Gwylan. I was hoping to go from Portishead to Milford Haven this weekend, but it just seems like it might be a bit too full on especially with a west wind directly over a tide which is bound to happen somewhere. It's a shame as the weather just seems to be at a tipping point between it being a really good trip and it being a really bad trip. If it were a reach in these conditions, I'd go for it.

Sounds like they've got a different predicament down on the south coast though!
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Odd really, we are currently on the South coast - seems to have calmed down a bit - but it's been piling up for a while so the sea will be lumpy.
Agree about the idea that we keep looking at different sites until we find the forecast that we like.

Generally I found Accuweather very good for the BC, but today it is not giving me the answer that I would like. so i have been looking at XC and MagicSeaweed - give the impression that we could get away with it on Saturday morning.

Do not envy you in the BC with that wind and over the tide. Very special place up there, when the wind and the tide get going.

Think we'll sleep on the boat, get the early weather forecast and then roll over and go back to sleep - spend the day on maintenance. The joys of boar ownership.
Need lots of tea bags and bacon butties

Hey ho.
 
Had a fantastic downwind trip across Torbay last weekend with a crew of three "ladies" from Brixham to Exmouth. Spinnaker up, surfing down the waves whooping at 9.5 knots in my 27 footer. Wind about 22-26 knots. You just to pick the right women.
 
I'm glad you said that.

Everyone else assumed the women would be the wimps and the men the bold ones. It doesn't have to be like that.

As someone said right at the beginning of the debate - ask the crew - you may be surprised!
 
The low that now appears to be crossing over northern France and up the channel passed north of here earlier today (I'm in the Basque Country, by the way). Winds at Punta Galea reached 50+ knots at one stage, with lumpy seas and heavy rain squalls. The rain continues, as do the highly-variable winds.

My forecast predicts a secondary low will form in the next few hours out over the Bay of Biscay and roll up the channel tomorrow Saturday, adding to the already miserable weather in those parts.

So, my recommendation: Stay put and see what late Saturday and Sunday brings along.

Quote from Jason:
TBH I never go with the family if the course is to windward and its more than 15 kn . downwind, 20 or so.
End Quote

That is also our philosophy.

Once out and about, 25+ sends us heading towards port if it looks like being the start of something stronger.
 
Wight
Gale warning 2133 Fri 17 Jul
Westerly gale force 8 continuing

Shipping forecast 1725 Fri 17 Jul
Wind West or southwest 5 to 7, occasionally gale 8 at first.
Sea State Moderate or rough.
Weather Rain or showers.
Visibility Good, occasionally poor.


I wonder if he went??
 
AliM said:
I'm glad you said that.
Everyone else assumed the women would be the wimps and the men the bold ones. It doesn't have to be like that.
As someone said right at the beginning of the debate - ask the crew - you may be surprised!
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If it was really about what the crew fancied then he'd have asked them, not asked on a forum. So I conclude that he didn't fancy it (which is fine) and felt the need to put the blame on 'crew' (which isn't really fine).
 
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