Weekend Weather Forecast

simonjk

Well-Known Member
Joined
6 Mar 2003
Messages
2,342
www.sailingweather.co.uk
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Hi,

Blustery for the weekend ahead, keep a careful eye on the forecasts.

Don't forget, your friends can receive this forecast too. All they need to do is send an email to
sailingweathereather-subscribe@weatherweb.net

Have a good one,
Simon


WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST
==========================
Issued: 1400 Thursday 31st August 2006

FRIDAY (see http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn301.png ):
Low pressure is the dominating feature of the days weather again through FRiday. Cebtred west of Scotland an associated cold front will be clearing from southeast England in the afternoon. Following will be brisk west to southwest winds, with a trough also expected to be through central Scotland to southwest England at the same time. The jet stream remains over the country and so the weather will be staying mobile.
Morning rain through much of the Midlands and eastern England. This should slowly clear away eastwards, probably clearing Kent by mid afternoon. Drier and bright conditions then follow from the west but it won't be long before heavy showers return to Scotland, Wales and western England. These pushing inland through the day. Further showers in Ireland, most of them along western and northern coasts.
Winds will be mainly WSW-SW 10-16kt (F4-F5) but nearer 20 gust 30kt (F5-F6) in western Scotland, increasing here later.

SATURDAY (see http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn541.png ):
More unsettled weather through Saturday. Low pressure off northern Scotland will persist, whilst a new shallow low is expected to move into the southwest approaches, omving quickly east.
It is going to be a wet and windy day through southern areas. The rain may be heavy at times, but it is difficult to predict timings on this at the moment. I can probably say with some certainty that eastern England should start the day dry, with the west wet. Winds may be to gale force through the Channel and along southern coasts. Over northern England and southern Scotland it should be drier with bright spells here, whilst showers will be affecting the north of Scotland. Brighter later in Ireland.
Winds will be S-SW 12kt (F3-F4) becoming cyclonic 20-30kt gust 40kt (F5-F6 gust F8) in parts of the south, but mainly NW-W 7kt (F3) over Ireland and Scotland.

SUNDAY (see http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png ):
On Sunday a complex area of low pressure will be to the north of Scotland, affecting all parts of the country. An occluded front will be moving through Scotland and eastern England, although th cold front lingers along southern coasts. A brisk west to southwest flow following.
Rain associated with the front will be clearing eastwards, although this will linger slong southern coasts. Brighter, breezy weather elsewhere with showers on western coasts, a few penetrating inland.
Winds will be mainly W-WSW 16-20kt gust 30kt on western coasts (F5 gust F6-F7), nearer variable 5kt (F2) over northern Scotland.

**ends**
 
Taking a small yacht from Hamble to Blackwater starting Friday am, with weather on that route based upon current forecasts which indicate nothing like F8.
Can you confirm where exactly (& when) these gusts are expected pls.
 
I'm no Simon but looking at theyr.net it looks like the wind picks up on Saturday am in the western approaches, gets to the Solent by sat pm and onwards along the channel until it peters out a bit on Sunday.
 
Chris is about right, Theyr.net model (which I think is the GFS) is picking this up as well for Saturday.

However, I am expecting the forecast to be changing in terms of timings, in such a fluid situation it almost enevitably does, so keep a close eye on it.

Also, in a strong W-SW flow, with a jet overhead there is the potential for strong gusts in that flow at anytime.

Have fun...

Simon
 
Thanks for that.

Looked at synoptics on ECMWF.com & does give strong winds.
However, BBC et al, not showing any of this.

Chris' model suits me fine, hopefully will be around corner past Dover before anything hits.
 
For once I thank you for this pathetic forecast.................

I quit in disgust last night and came home based on my analysis of the likely weather over the next 5 days and I am delighted that you confirm my view.
Having got the lawn mown today, as well as 3 out of 9 jobs on the dreaded list I now hope that the weekend of the 17th September is a disastrous (to some) dead calm so that I can run over to C'bourg and get ratted with the A team!
 
Re: W/end Weather Forecast - Simon & Chris more accurate than most!

After Sat o/night in Brighton (v.tacky), we were just passing around Dungeness, when the weather hit, bumpy ride to Dover & 'interesting' entry into Western entrance @ about 1930 hrs - very confused seas. Even within the harbour, the wind was high.
Stayed over on Sunday, considered going around to Ramsgate, with many forecasts indicating local F5, but wind instruments at harbour entrance showing steady 34 knts/gusting ++ until late pm & Dover CG indicating this until 0300 Monday! So stayed in.
Even on Monday, forecast W winds were NW across Thames Estuary.

Again Simon (& Chris) have forecast better than the Met Office etc.
 
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