Weather Musing...The Hurricane Factory

[simonjk]

Hi again,

It's been fascinating to watch developments in the Atlantic over the past 24-hours, and the way in which computer models have handled what is happening out there.

Hurricane Danielle is in the mid-western Atlantic, heading north and can still be seen as a Hurricane on Atlantic frontal forecast charts out to midday on Tuesday (see below).

But of more interest are the storms which are following behind. Tropical Storm Earl is forecast to turn into a hurricane as it heads northwest with 100kt winds in the next few days.

Then following is a tropical depression which has all the hallmarks of developing into Hurricane Fiona. As changes take place in the upper atmosphere (brought about by Danielle and Earl), Fiona could be on a different track.

Instead of heading into the northwest Atlantic and away from any significant land, Fiona could take a different track and head into the USA. Computer models don't have a handle on Fiona just yet, but they should get to grips with her in the next few days.

That's some way off, and for now we have to watch and wait, but make no mistake, hurricane season is now well underway!

Hope that is of interest,
Simon

 

[Chris_Robb]

Facinating - glad I am not having to dodge them. Looks like Earl will give the Windward islands a problem and the Bahama fringes if it develops.

 

[TQA]

It's the Northern Leewards that are under a hurricane watch as TS Earl should make hurricane status today if the models have it right.

It's centre is wibbling about and it also has not yet really hooked to the North so the charter boys will be checking dock lines and the mangroves will be getting crowded as far south as Dominica.