Weather in the Thames Estuary

[Fairwinds23]

Hi to you all.

I would be grateful for your experience of weather forecasting across the Thames Estuary specifically on the "outer" route to Ramsgate from Harwich. I use Passage Weather, UGrib, Met Office, Windfinder and so on but being new to East Coast sailing I wondered if one or more had a better reputation for predicting weather in this area.

Thank you in anticipation.

 

[Cantata]

In my experience none of 'em are much cop, I'm afraid. You just have to look at a few, look at the isometric charts, look out of the window and make up your own mind.
Main source of info for us when afloat is really the MetO Inshore Waters f'cast, but do bear in mind that 'Gibraltar Point to North Foreland' is a long way and the weather can be quite different at the N end from the S end. If you're close to one end or the other it's worth paying attention to the adjacent area's forecast as well.

 

[johnalison]

I agree. The weather can be very variable in the area andit is usually best to interpret the forecast in the light of local knowledge. For example, when we used to sail and race in the Blackwater we always knew that a westerly wind would increase when we got past Thirslet and used to call it the "Stone Blow".

On the whole, a Thames crossing is more influenced by local tide/wind effects that any major departure from the expected weather.

 

[Koeketiene]

I have found Meteo France to be the most reliable.

 

[Fairwinds23]

Weather in the Estuary

Many thanks for your replies

Meteo France + Google translate tells me Wednesday will be "choppy choppy", I think I'll leave on Friday

 

[Phoenix of Hamble]

We don't have 'weather' in the Thames Estuary.... Just 'occasional dry spells'

Seriously, i generally prefer sites based upon the GFS forecast model, especially Windguru, but for longer estuary crossings you are best to watch various sources such as coastal and sea area Thames for a few days, as well as start understanding how to read synoptic charts and spot big lows loitering that might head our way... Build a mental picture over a few days to identify trends and risks. That way, while you might be a force or so out, you are much less likely to be caught by a gale unawares.

 

[Gargleblaster]

I rather like Weatheronline. For the last 10 years I have used them and for wind speed and direction they are rarely wrong. The information comes out of Heidelberg University as I understand and they use different models to the met office. I don't know what their rain, temp and sunshine forecasts are like as I don't pay attention to them.

A few times I have looked at both weatheronline and the met office forecast set off because I liked the look of the met office forecast and ignored the weatheronline forecast only to find that weatheronline were right and the met office wrong.

Interestingly enough I have found them not only accurate for the Thames Estuary but also as far down the channel as the Lizard.

Here is one for the north end of the Thames Estuary I downloaded earlier:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weat...EGION=0003&WMO=u3696&R=0&LEVEL=120&NOREGION=0