Weather Forecasts - the reality

[johnalison]

For the most part I don't grumble about forecasts, well, no more than most people anyway, but what I really miss is information about what it's like "out there". In the old days hearing about the current weather at the Varne and Galloper (or West Hinder) was very useful as well as allowing one to draw a synoptic chart which, although often rather fanciful, was helpful and educational. At least Jersey Radio give the information from a wide range of shore stations at a harbour where one is isolated from the elements beyond the harbour, and where my WiFi refused to log in.

 

[Robin]

For the most part I don't grumble about forecasts, well, no more than most people anyway, but what I really miss is information about what it's like "out there". In the old days hearing about the current weather at the Varne and Galloper (or West Hinder) was very useful as well as allowing one to draw a synoptic chart which, although often rather fanciful, was helpful and educational. At least Jersey Radio give the information from a wide range of shore stations at a harbour where one is isolated from the elements beyond the harbour, and where my WiFi refused to log in.

I too like Jersey Met forecasts too and as you say they give regular station reports from all around, even from Channel Light and Portland Bill both of which are outside of their official forecast area. Meteo France also give station reports on their VHF forecasts via CROSS/CROSSMA.

 

[HinewaisMan]

Having just crossed the Indian Ocean and popped up the Red Sea to the Med, we suppose we should envy all you Poms with the multitudinous weather information sources. God knows, the Australian Bureau of Met does some stunning stuff as well and we certainly used it when Down-Under.

But at the end of the day, it is all just another tool – something that helps us decide as yachtspeople whether it is safe, pleasant enough or a days motoring when we consider if we want to go somewhere today. Part of that is Met Office (or whatever) data, be it forecast or using the synoptic charts to track weather systems, but part of it is starting to understand what’s around you – the weather patterns, what are the clouds doing, the sea state and where’s the swell coming from, dew on the deck, ducks flying backwards etc etc

We were lucky when we crossed the Indian Ocean – in addition to the GRIBS via Sailmail and very limited voice forecasts/weatherfax available via HF, we had a mate back in Melbourne who’s an amateur meteorologist. Each day, via Sailmail, he’d give us the weather in our estimated position in 24 & 48 hrs time. Most of the time, he was great – indeed, he drove us 200 miles north of our rhumb line after the Maldives and we had a great run to Oman while other yachts on the sameish rhumb languished with no winds.

But when we got into the Red Sea, his forecasting fell apart – he was working at a point level. There are so many local variables and influences, his weather modelling stopped working. And in the Red Sea, there are few other weather sources we could call on (free that is) but the GRIBS. And they are consistently rough at best – add at least 15kts of wind to what they suggest (the best was after 4 days stuck in a Marsa, the GRIBS showed 5kts from the East for 24 hrs – we went for it – only after 5 hrs of 15ktsE, we “enjoyed” 12hrs of 40ktsN).

In fact, in the Red Sea, the best weather forecasters were the boats on our Net who were 100 miles N of us – what they have today, we’d almost certainly get tomorrow – those 200 miles away, it would be pretty likely we’d get their weather in a couple of days.

That’s not to say, we didn’t used forecasting – for example, tracking the Highs and Lows in the Eastern Med for a few days lets you know when the best time is to run the final gauntlet of the Gulf of Suez.

I think what I’m trying to say is that we risk getting too micro – for example, GRIBS say that at this lat/long there will be a wind of 10.3kts@180 degrees at 0900UTC and the scary thing is people believe it – they get upset that it’s actually about 15kts from roughly SSW. People say weather areas are too big – but you can generally be pretty sure that you will get the weather that is forecast in the area – albeit between F4 and F7.

What we have learned is that the big picture is king – if you can understand what he’s saying. Then apply your own local knowledge.

As Frank says, you have to think about the weather. Now what’s that bloody butterfly in Tokyo up to now?.

 

[franksingleton]

Weather foreacst - my 4th essay

The only situations to my knowledge when HMCG would not update a forecast might be during a SAR incident. I am enquiring. Yes, the shipping forecast is issued 4 times a day for the BBC but only used twice by HMCG. That is the case in all other countries to the best of my knowledge and is in accordance with SOLAS requirements. A logistical problem is that NAVTEX uses a 4 hourly schedule while weather information is exchange internationally on a 6 hour basis. Forecasts of this nature can sensibly be updated every 6 hours.

I dispute that shipping forecasts are so broad brush as to be useless. Remember that GMDSS services are what the name says Global Distress and Safety System forecasts. They are essentially warnings. We all use them in a wider context.

If I am looking at a 3 to 5 day outlook I do not expect anything else but broad brush. The UK gives a 24 hour IWF outlook. Any outlook for inshore waters beyond that is going to be broad brush. Many is the time that I have heard the French outlook beyond two days say “nothing significant” or little change”. That is so on their coastal forecasts as well on their bulletins au large or grande large.

In the last year that I have seen records, MOD paidthe Met Office about £35M, CAA about £18M, Climate research £22M and Commercial £27M. Oil companies, Insurance firms, utility firms, retailers and many others pay for services. I agree that much revenue is from government bodies. However, the fact remains that whatever OGD wants a service from the Met Office, it has to find the cash from its budget and be prepared to argue the case with HMT. I repeat, tyhe Met Office is not vote funded.

As far as the BBC is concerned, they are the customer and they decide what form of TV or radio forecast they will pay for. This is not semantics, it is the reality. In the old days, forecasters at RAF airfields were only too happy to talk to anyone who called them. I ran an enquiry branch for a while and my staff were only too pleased to provide information and advice to all and sundry. However, squeeze after squeeze has made all that impossible. Any service provided by the Met Office must have a customer and must be paid for. The Met Office has to be self supporting. To see more go to http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publications/annualreport/ARA0708.pdf

I too have been sailing for a long time – since the mid 50s in my case. I can categorically say that there is far more free information now than ever before. The GMDSS provides a basic service – Shipping and IWF. Back in the 60s you only had the shipping forecast. The only information not now available is the actual reports on two of the four shipping forecasts. That has been countered by the actuals on NAVTEX 490 kHz and the hourly marine actuals on the Met Office website.

Nowadays, there are many other sources and types of information. As regards the Internet it is up to you whether you use it or not. That is your choice. Personally, as a sailor who has some 40,000 miles under the keel, I would not be without it. It supplements the GMDSS by being another route to get GMDSS forecasts. It is complementary in that it can provide a wider range of information at very little cost or effort. It can only be a matter of personal judgement what you find useful. I have made my choices.

Jersey does give a good service but I think that the HMCG are usually under greater time constraints. The question of actuals is one where I am agnostic. My opinion is that overmuch attention is paid to them. Rather like your own observation, there is so little information there and is it really that useful? For example, Jersey airport is on high ground, they can be in fog whilst it is still good enough visibility at sea level. Nevertheless, as I said earlier (due to pressure from the RYA and CYCC) there are now more actuals available than before – if you take the trouble to go and get them. If you are at sea and really want to know what is the weather at one or other of the reporting stations around the coast, including the light vessels, then call the coastguard. They will have them there – they are always online.

 

[asteven221]

As a side comment, and noting some other threads, warnings are not issued lightly but it can be a tightrope. There is no point in crying wolf too often and, in any case, the forecasters are well aware of the cost implications to the authorities and the public. A warning might not be right for you as an individual but, without any supporting facts, I am pretty sure that few warnings are not justified and few bad weather events have not occurred in recent years without a warning.
.

Thanks for this excellent post. It is very interesting reading points from an obviously very knowledgeable and experienced person. Out of interest and as an aside, why do we get severe weather warnings on what seems like every other forecast? I am thinking of the general UK (or more local) forecast from the telly and not specifically boating related.
I can't honestly recall seeing severe weather in my 48 years on this earth - that is in central Scotland. Sure, we get very occassional seriously heavy rain, or once every few years snow that's more than cm deep, or very occassionally wind that can cause damage to property. We would welcome a severe weather warning on these ocassions, but I can't help thinking that getting one every other day is daft. These severe weather warnings seem to have been rapidly increasing over the past two or three years. Is it the H&S brigade going mad as usual?

 

[Robin]

I dispute that shipping forecasts are so broad brush as to be useless. Remember that GMDSS services are what the name says Global Distress and Safety System forecasts. They are essentially warnings. We all use them in a wider context.

Quite often there are general forecasts for example say for Dover, Wight, Portland NE 5 or 6 occ 8 or the like. Look at the internet (or even Meteo France especially inshore which in this illustration will see the offshore NE winds) and the more local picture may well show NE 6 to 8 in Dover Straits, with NE 5 or 6 farther west between IOW and Cherbourg. There is a world of difference between a 5 or 6 and 6 to 8 unless you are in big ships. We might well leave Cherbourg for home with NE 5/6 but decide against with NE 6-8. This is not an invented scenario, it has happened. Again I'm sure the Met Office know but it is the constraints of BBC or Navtex that forces the shortened encompass all option. You are correct of course that there are other sources of more detailed information on which to base a judgement, but if you use these then why bother at all with the short BBC/Navtex version?

The vague one size fits all gets to me. The words used sometimes giving the get out clauses, like 'erly so that west is 'westerly' or anywhere from NNW to SSW. Or visibility good, occasionally moderate or poor with fog patches in the west - and yes I have heard it! Add occasional showers and they have covered every possibility except snow!

If I am looking at a 3 to 5 day outlook I do not expect anything else but broad brush. The UK gives a 24 hour IWF outlook. Any outlook for inshore waters beyond that is going to be broad brush. Many is the time that I have heard the French outlook beyond two days say “nothing significant” or little change”. That is so on their coastal forecasts as well on their bulletins au large or grande large.

I also expect it to be generalised of course, but at least for the local sea area would be nice not for the whole of the country or 'in the south'. Chocolate teapot stuff that!

Nowadays, there are many other sources and types of information. As regards the Internet it is up to you whether you use it or not. That is your choice. Personally, as a sailor who has some 40,000 miles under the keel, I would not be without it. It supplements the GMDSS by being another route to get GMDSS forecasts. It is complementary in that it can provide a wider range of information at very little cost or effort. It can only be a matter of personal judgement what you find useful. I have made my choices.

The internet is a wonderful weather resource for sure. We carry a laptop on board and longer range WiFi aerial as well as a dongle for UK use. Lots of people don't have that capability on board however so rely on the limited BBC or MCA outputs once they leave home.

In the last year that I have seen records, MOD paidthe Met Office about £35M, CAA about £18M, Climate research £22M and Commercial £27M. Oil companies, Insurance firms, utility firms, retailers and many others pay for services. I agree that much revenue is from government bodies. However, the fact remains that whatever OGD wants a service from the Met Office, it has to find the cash from its budget and be prepared to argue the case with HMT. I repeat, tyhe Met Office is not vote funded.

The arguments between which government department pays for what share of the Met Office isn't relevant to us, simply because all that funding came from us taxpayers in the first place! We have paid for the data, the Met Office has it, why can we not then get to see it in a little more detail without having to pay for it yet again?

Jersey does give a good service but I think that the HMCG are usually under greater time constraints. The question of actuals is one where I am agnostic. My opinion is that overmuch attention is paid to them. Rather like your own observation, there is so little information there and is it really that useful? For example, Jersey airport is on high ground, they can be in fog whilst it is still good enough visibility at sea level. Nevertheless, as I said earlier (due to pressure from the RYA and CYCC) there are now more actuals available than before – if you take the trouble to go and get them. If you are at sea and really want to know what is the weather at one or other of the reporting stations around the coast, including the light vessels, then call the coastguard. They will have them there – they are always online.

The actuals are of use to us I believe. They help decide where in a sequence of forecasted events we might have reached or if a predicted wind strength or visibility has yet arrived where we want to go or even if the predicted wind strength is higher than expected maybe or the expected free wind might be a headwind after all. Once out at sea it is more academic, we have got to live with whatever comes our way but in decision making to go or stay, actuals are useful.

Again sorry if this seems to be knocking the Met Office because that isn't my intention. I just want routine better access to what they have, a VHF Weather Channel like in the USA would be nice!

 

[franksingleton]

Weather Forecasts my 5th essay

First, I have had a response from HMCG about non-updating of Inshore Waters forecasts. They said that

“This was raised in relation to Inshore Waters Forecasts not being updated by Stornoway which I (ie HMCG management) took up with the Rescue Centre Co-ordination Manager and he has since addressed the matter with his staff.”


HMCG have asked to be informed of any occasion when forecasts have not been updated. They are adamant that it should not happen. If you have a specific case, please inform HMCG – or me. See my website for an address.


There has been much comment about lack of detail in forecasts, especially outlooks beyond two days. I would ask that you go back to my first post and read again what I said about grid lengths in models, the lifetimes of weather features of various sizes and predictability. With an outlook beyond two days it is simply not possible to talk about features less than about 100 NM in size. You might not like it, but that is the case.



On the matter of words used in forecasts, there is no difference in the term west or westerly. I wish they would only use west. In the shipping forecast, west means anything between SW and NW. Looking at a forecast chart whether isobars or vector winds and describing it in words that is as good as it can be even over the smaller sea areas and, sometimes, for an Inshore forecast as well. In lectures I sometimes say that weather does not know itself to better than one Beaufort force. That is part of the reality.

I also say that he only certainty in a forecast is the date – as long as the theologians are not involved.

I reiterate that the 330 word limit for a three minute forecast covering about 1 million square miles is a massive constraint. The man doing that job will often be scratching his head working to a tight deadline between his latest computer guidance and the broadcast to squeeze a quart into a pint pot. It has always been so as long as I can remember. On BST, it is very tight.

On the subject of warnings to the general public there have been changes over the years. At one time flash weather messages were only issued when severe weather in major conurbations was expected to need support from the military. As a young senior forecaster, I broke that particular mould in 1968 by issuing a flash warning for severe flooding over Kent as a whole. It saved some red faces in the met Office and the “rules”were changed

Since then there have been major events such as the 1987 storm and others when the emergency services have not always covered themselves with glory. Procedures for warnings have been steadily tightened up. The Met Office works in close liaison with Defra and others to do its best to ensure that warning is given as and when necessary. As I said, it is a tightrope. There are no brownie points for over warning and only brickbats for under warning.

I use the Internet a great deal but I also use GMDSS forecasts (via VHF, NAVTEX, RTTY, Internet) because, even taking the necessary broad brush aspect into account, I want to know how the human being is interpreting the information. I want to see how the forecast has changed or is changing as newer data are taken into account. By using the GMDSS information in conjunction with GRIB products I am able to plan ahead, most important in my opinion. I am able to make decisions on a day to day basis. Because I have been looking at GRIBs every day and because I keep an eye on my NAVTEX and an ear on the VHF, it is rarely that the weather takes me by surprise. It will do sometimes but by this approach I minimise the chance of that happening.

I do think that we have to educate sailors and wean them away from expecting it all to be on the BBC. It never has been and never will be. The BBC has only ever broadcast the shipping forecast, a small selection of coastal reports and a couple of Inshore waters forecasts (late night and early morning). As I have said, it is a matter of personal choice what equipment you carry on the boat. But if information is there and you choose not be able to access it then that is your decision. I am a laptop and cell phone person with GPRS/G3 available for most of the time and WiFi sometimes free sometime sat a cost in about 50 % of the marinas that I visited this year. I regard NAVTEX as essential because, at times, it has been my sole source of information.

Regarding the actuals, I have had to sail without them or without useful actuals for some years now. I cannot remember being in a position where I needed them to make decisions.

I will not discuss that matter of financial constraints further. I have set it out it as it is and can do no more. Take the matter to your MP if you really think that you have a good case.

The question of a dedicated continuous VHF channel has been discussed. There are a number of problems such as frequencies available to get the necessary cover. CROSS has been trialling a continuous broadcast on Ch 63 for Provence for a couple of years and for part of western France this year. One comment has been that the latter could not be received up the Vilaine, for example. A personal, devil’s advocate view is why is a continuous channel needed? There are 3 hourly broadcasts of weather information; is it really too difficult to hear the Ch 16 call and listen? Around France (I have not sailed in UK waters for a while now) I have often been able to hear the same forecast 2 or 3 times.

Boring, I know, but it comes down to cost again. Could a convincing business case be made?

I thank everyone who has contributed to this debate for their sensibel comments, criticisma and suggestions. I like being a little provocative and I do like to get people thinking about a serious issue that affects us all. If nothing else, I have injected some realism and hope that I have increased some awareness of what forecastin can and, importantly, cannot do.

I do not think that, without repetition, I can add anything more of value. thanks you all again.

 

[Pye_End]

I reiterate that the 330 word limit for a three minute forecast covering about 1 million square miles is a massive constraint. The man doing that job will often be scratching his head working to a tight deadline between his latest computer guidance and the broadcast to squeeze a quart into a pint pot. It has always been so as long as I can remember. On BST, it is very tight.

An interesting thread.

Whilst this is true, I cannot see why the same 330 words need to be used for the VHF forecasts. You mentioned Navtex is tight for time - are there any areas/times where NAVTEX could offer a higher quality service?

For the smaller boat, with less space for gadgets and less chance of keeping things like laptops dry, the two easy and obvious sources of forecasts are LW radio and VHF. If ther NAVTEX forecast was appreciably more detailed than the other two sources then the choice to do something better would be obvious. It wasn't so long ago that LW forecasts were 5 minutes rather than 3 (although I have no idea if the total word length was different). Perhaps with the coming of age of digital radio and the huge amount of airtime that will be generated, some could go into allowing the shipping forecast to be of a better length.

So, if we had more of the 'quart' rather than the 'pint pot' would we recieve better quality of information, or is the biggest reason for innacurate forecasts being with the generating mechanism rather than the presentation.

 

[franksingleton]

Weather forecasts - 6th reply

For NAVTEX 518 kHz, I think that it is a question of the overloading of the 10 minute time slot – Niton especially. In terms of priority, weather forecasts are message type E, that is they come fifth in order of priority after A, Nav warnings, B gale warnings, C, Ice warnings (few in the Channel!) and D SAR messages. As for VHF, the prime purpose here is the inshore forecast. I have rarely heard the shipping forecast (bulletins au large in France) repeated with coastal forecasts. Bearing in mond the amount of time each day spent by HMCG on broadcasting weather, I guess that an increase in time for a longer shipping forecasts would mean less time for the inshore waters text.

NAVTEX 490 does have the inshore forecast, 4 times a day. I am not aware of any other country using 490 in that way. The shipping forecast has always been 3 minutes – at least back to the 60s. The coastal station take (or took) 2 minutes. The BBC said that they were getting complaints from listeners and losing audience every time the forecast came on. Then they cut the time of the midday and early evening broadcasts to 3 minutes giving the MCA/Met Office/RYA the Hobson’s choice of do you want to broadcast the forecast or the actuals. The BBC is a law unto itself and, in any case, it has no statutory obligation to broadcast marine forecasts at all. It could stop tomorrow and that would be that.

Nowadays, cell phones can display texts of web pages; they can even show graphics – if you squint hard enough. Hand held computers are robust, small and not power hungry. We sail an HR34, not a big boat by today’s standards. In bad weather the laptop goes away in a dry well padded place. Normally, that is not a problem. We have done all our preparation and, while at sea, rely on the GMDSS sources. WE can be out of cell phone contact anyway; I have not got a cell phone aerial and do not have Iridium. I can see both becoming more widely used in time. Of course, so might also built in computers; it is only a matter of time before someone comes up with a robust, marinised computer suitable for us cash strapped small boat owners.

The biggest problem in weather forecasting is the atmosphere itself. Any text forecast that is understandable will never describe the detail that we experience in the detail that we observe it. Words like locally, at times and so will always have to be used. If we could all receive GRIB forecasts while sailing, and most cannot because of computer vulnerability, and if we all bore in mind the limitations of GRIBs eg they underestimate wind by about one Beaufort force or 20%, then that would be the best answer. As it is.......

 

[fireball]

In bad weather the laptop goes away in a dry well padded place.

Can I suggest that you could either
1) Mount the laptop off the chart table
or
2) Use an external monitor connected to the laptop/pc

and with those you can use the £19 water resistant keyboard and a cheap USB mouse that doesn't care if it gets wet ...

 

[Robin]

Can I suggest that you could either
1) Mount the laptop off the chart table
or
2) Use an external monitor connected to the laptop/pc

and with those you can use the £19 water resistant keyboard and a cheap USB mouse that doesn't care if it gets wet ...

It isn't just the limitation of keeping laptops dry though that is a problem for small boats, there is also the problem of significant battery drain on top of the demands already from autopilots, instruments, radios and lights.

As I've said we DO run a laptop on board but not at sea even though we have a dry position and plenty of battery power. We also have Navtex and SSB with weatherfax and RTTY capability and mobilephones. I have a small tray of fresh seaweed as well, probably more informative than a 3 minute generalisation between overs at Lords.

As for VHF, the prime purpose here is the inshore forecast. I have rarely heard the shipping forecast (bulletins au large in France) repeated with coastal forecasts. Bearing in mond the amount of time each day spent by HMCG on broadcasting weather, I guess that an increase in time for a longer shipping forecasts would mean less time for the inshore waters text

The HMCG VHF broadcasts are recordings put out on working channels so the only time and effort it takes is to make the initial recording itself and switch it on at the right time and that bit could be automated? Apart from the initial announcement on Ch16 it doesn't interfere with normal operations and I hardly think an extra few minutes recording length to be more informative should be a problem. In the case of Jersey CG they helpfully repeat their forecast at dictation speed and even the French CROSS stations often repeat parts of theirs. Sometimes it would be nice to hear just one reason why folks CAN do something instead of offering ten reasons why they CAN'T.

Ho hum.

 

[fireball]

It isn't just the limitation of keeping laptops dry though that is a problem for small boats, there is also the problem of significant battery drain on top of the demands already from autopilots, instruments, radios and lights.

True - although there are various power saving methods available - but this isn't the thread to discuss them! FWIW I don't run a laptop whilst underway either - but then I do have 2 chartplotters on the go, plus the usual VHF & other instruments ... much more and I'd spend more time playing with the kit than I would sailing the boat!!

 

[Blue5]

True - although there are various power saving methods available - but this isn't the thread to discuss them! FWIW I don't run a laptop whilst underway either - but then I do have 2 chartplotters on the go, plus the usual VHF & other instruments ... much more and I'd spend more time playing with the kit than I would sailing the boat!!

I run a laptop on board with Nav Package, it is not neccesary to have it on all the time, just for the tricky bits and with a spare battery I get 5 hrs so with careful management it need not be a problem

 

[WoodyP]

When sailing offshore it must always be rather academical what the weather is going to do because sailing at c. 5knots you are stuck with what comes at you and so have to deal with it.
The real benefit is not setting off into the teeth of a gale or being able to cut short a coastal journey with short term forecasts.
What an interesting thread though, with some input from true professionals and experienced amateurs ( as well as the usual bollx from the likes of me).
Thanks, G.

 

[smartcom]

I agree with Frank about the limitations of weather forecasting technology. We offered a high res forecast with our SmartMet service for a while, but monitoring it and GFS against actuals showed it wasn't worth the expense or the longer download times, so we just offer GFS for forecasts now.

Although I haven't got as many years sailing under my belt as Frank, I have a good few years, and I think there has been a bit of a cultural shift regarding things like weather. In the old days, before modern comms, Navtex etc meant you could pick up a forecast pretty easily, I think that there was more knowledge about weather systems and about reading the weather from the clouds, barometer etc. Then if you got a forecast you'd modify it with what you saw around you; if you got it right, that was great, but if not you pretty much accepted it. Now that it is much easier to get forecasts, and they generally give much more quantitative data about wind speeds etc, there is a much greater expectation that they should be more accurate. Weather forecasting has increased significantly in accuracy over the last few decades, but not as fast as user expectations! We buy a chart plotter with weather routing software in it, and just expect there to be GRIB files (for free) with data points every 1/4 of a mile and 20 minute time steps. I may be exaggerating slightly, but the trend is there.

I think also that if you are out day sailing, or want to enhance the accuracy of the forecast, much greater use can be made of weather reports, e.g. weather buoys and weather stations, the likes of Bramblemet, and the many hobby weather stations you can see on web sites like Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com) or Prodata (www.weatherstations.co.uk/aws_map.htm), plus Quickscat data if you are sailing offshore.

Navtex coverage is very unlikely to increase, due to the limitations of the time slots. In fact, we are lucky in this country, as we can use 490 to supplement 518, instead of having to use it in a different language. There are already problems with Navtex messages over running their slots, and so interfering with the transmissions of the station with the next time slot. The standard abbreviations for Navtex met forecasts were introduced to help reduce the size of the messages.

If you want to learn more about the weather, I'd like to plug the Royal Institute of Navigation's Weather and Sailing day in London on 21st November - see http://www.rin.org.uk/sigs-amp-branches/sea/small-craft-group/events/weather-amp-sailing-2009. Both Frank and I have spoken at this annual event in the past, and I see Frank's on the schedule for this year.

 

[franksingleton]

Weather forecasts - umpteenth reply, trying to bow out

Thanks, Tim.

All very good.

I am especially interested in your comments on meso-scale forecasts. They echo what I would expect from my knowledge of modelling. Also the experiences of one yacht in the Fastnet which had two different meso-scale forecasts but found that neither was forecasting the weather that the yacht was experiencing at the time of receipt. They reverted to using the GFS. It was only one yacht on only one occasion and I put no great store in what they said. However, your input is really enlightening.



I would like to make one comment about the siggestion that HMCG broadcasts on VHF could be longer. You would run into a scheduling problem in order to avoid interstaion interference. One of the targets that we set for HMCG was to complete all in one cycle within one hour. that is done, apart from Clyde which has the longest broadcast. HMCG did a great deal of trial work to get the optimum order for the broadcasts.

 

[Robin]

There are two different questions in this discussion in my view, firstly the accuracy of the forecasts and secondly the availability of them.

To comment on the accuracy is difficult unless you are talking about a single information source, for example, is the Met Office Shipping Forecast accurate. Good question, in my view it often collates too many areas over too many miles together, then gives a forecast that is generalised (to cover that wide area) so much that somewhere sometime somehow it could always be called 'correct'! Personally I believe that forecasting accuracy has improved markedly, but that accuracy never reaches us as the user unless we stay plugged in to get it.

The availability of the forecasts is quite key in my book. I'm one lucky enough to be well equipped with gizmos on board and being in a marina berth can pretty well access everything I can do at home. We have laptop with WiFi (and 3G dongle in UK), Navtex, VHF, SSB transceiver with weatherfax software and RTTY. Lots of people however do not have this access once they leave home either because they don't have all the gizmos or their boat is out on a mooring with no mains power and no WiFi. Then again the scenario changes when away from home base, maybe now there is a language problem, UK 3G dongles don't work and there is no WiFi nearby, now the only easy source is the good old BBC and Navtex. Unfortunately the Beeb thinks 300 plus words in 3 minutes is the most they can spare so that is what we get, oh and by the way let's put it out at anti social hours too. Navtex simply repeats the 3 minute special so is no better. In UK waters we get VHF forecasts from HMCG, but they only give the offshore one twice per day and chose not to repeat it when they do repeat the inshore one - why?

OK, I've been at it since Noah was learning boatbuilding and like many others can have a stab at drawing my own synoptic charts from the general synopsis. We have a certain understanding of weather patterns and a nose for what is happening. But is this really as good as it gets in the 21st century, or should we be able to get more information more easily in more places?

I fully understand that outlooks beyond 2 days are less reliable, even though that isn't the way it is often 'sold' to users by the presenters on TV. But it ought surely to be possible, as the French do, to give an outlook a few days out for say the English Channel or Irish Sea and not one just for the whole of the UK or 'in the south' We know it will change but give us a confidence factor so we can at least have an idea we can base provisional plans on.

I'm repeating myself here but I happen to think everything isn't perfect and that there is room for improvement.

 

[BrendanS]

Unfortunately the Beeb thinks 300 plus words in 3 minutes is the most they can spare so that is what we get, oh and by the way let's put it out at anti social hours too..

What an arrogant attitude!! You get a shipping forcast, but then denigrate it because it's not what you need. What about others that also need dedicated forecasts. Various types of pilot also sit at home trying to plan, and would love dedicated free resources whilst waiting to fly cross country or in the air. Hillwalkers and climbers would like local reports to suit, as would cave divers etc. There are huge numbers of people to whom weather reports are just as essential to their sports who get no airtime dedicated to them at all, and to whom general forecasts are useless.

 

[FlyingSpud]

I am not sure what is wrong with the reports being given with ‘confidence’ factors,

As I understand Frank Singleton’s response to my original question it seems to come down to 2 factors

(a) The Report would be too long – which I suppose is an issue, but would it really add much to say ‘Thames Easterly 4 to 5 confidence 70%’?

(b) It would confuse people such as councils and other who rely on it – this I do not follow. If I am thinking, shall we have dinner outside on the patio, then if there is a 60% chance of rain, I may still go for it, its no big deal, if I am doing something where weather is crucial, and perhaps a safety factor, then I would not perhaps risk 30% chance of rain.


I can see Frank Singleton does not want to end up fielding responses from us all and sounding like counsel for the Met office before a hostile group of end users- and I do not blame him, I would not either - so I do not ask him to reply, its just a thought.

 

[Robin]

What an arrogant attitude!! You get a shipping forcast, but then denigrate it because it's not what you need. What about others that also need dedicated forecasts. Various types of pilot also sit at home trying to plan, and would love dedicated free resources whilst waiting to fly cross country or in the air. Hillwalkers and climbers would like local reports to suit, as would cave divers etc. There are huge numbers of people to whom weather reports are just as essential to their sports who get no airtime dedicated to them at all, and to whom general forecasts are useless.

Sorry if I seem arrogant Mr B, but I'm on a Yottie Board of a Yottie Forum not on a Flying Forum or a Hill Walkers Forum, so I will tell it like I see it as - a yottie. When my wings arrive I might chip in about a pilots forecast - on a Pilots Forum.