Weather Forecasts - A Matter of Trust Survey

[simonjk]

Hi everyone,

Following the furore about weather forecasts I am writing a paper for a meteorological journal in response to the issues raised and thought the forum might be able to help.

This is not about ‘Met Office bashing’ but trying to find out what the effect of such publicity has on the weather industry, and an effort to prove the importance of communication.

I’d really appreciate your help by taking part in a survey (it will take less than 5 minutes). It is only 10-questions and it would be really useful to have the thoughts and opinions of the users of weather forecasts.

To take part go to http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=PmjIm8_2bFmChp1YphX7g4cA_3d_3d

Feel free to pass this message on to your friends.

I will advise when the paper is complete and advise you of the survey results.

Thanks in advance,

Simon

 

[TiggerToo]

and now: how about ione of your great forecasts?

pleeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaasssse?

 

[marksaab]

That was fun! When do we get the results?

 

[Greenwichman]

Predicting weather

Thanks, Simon, have completed your survey.

Glad you say it is not about Met Office bashing. Whole thing reminds me of 1987 hurricane, when I was at sea in English Channel and participated in rescue of a yacht and her crew. They, too, had heard the benign forecast and set sail for Ushant.

Everyone still laughs at Michael Fish, but the fact is that he was simply dealing with probabilities; the predictions don't always work because nature is like that. In 1987 very few forecasters anywhere predicted that the low pressure centre that day would suddenly veer north across the Channel in the way that it did.

Computers have speeded up and gained greater capacity since then, but nature will still do the oddest things. And computers can't control nature, thank God!

Roy

 

[fireball]

Done. However - the "Which Long Range Forecasts do you look at" question would only allow you to tick one box ...

and, just to publicly state what I put in the comment box.

As per your forecasts on here, it is very helpful to understand the bigger picture when looking at the forecasts - so reasoning for their conclusion of a particular weather pattern and an indication of certainty would be very helpful but rarely given (again, except by yourself on here!)

 

[Phoenix of Hamble]

completed.....

But one point worth raising, related to trusting forecasts....

Most seem to treat the audience as complete numpties....

It would be great to get back to forecasts with much more detail provided.... including regular use of synoptics, and explanations of fronts and their impacts etc etc...

In fact, more along the lines of what you do on here Simon...

 

[fireball]

"Simon for Met Office Cheif"
"Simon for Met Office Cheif"
"Simon for Met Office Cheif"
"Simon for Met Office Cheif"
"Simon for Met Office Cheif"

 

[Chris_Robb]

Thanks, Simon, have completed your survey.

Glad you say it is not about Met Office bashing. Whole thing reminds me of 1987 hurricane, when I was at sea in English Channel and participated in rescue of a yacht and her crew. They, too, had heard the benign forecast and set sail for Ushant.

Everyone still laughs at Michael Fish, but the fact is that he was simply dealing with probabilities; the predictions don't always work because nature is like that. In 1987 very few forecasters anywhere predicted that the low pressure centre that day would suddenly veer north across the Channel in the way that it did.

Computers have speeded up and gained greater capacity since then, but nature will still do the oddest things. And computers can't control nature, thank God!

Roy

I seem to remember that the Met office forecast very bad winds for nortrhern france, at the time, so why did that yacht think it was a benign forecast - when it was clearly warned about for N France?

 

[Chris_Robb]

Simon - even your monthly forecast struggled in July did it not. You had hoped for a return to good weather mid month, but it never came as secondary after secondary formed. In the past I have found your monthly forecast a reasonable guide. I suppose the jet streams position when it hangs about over N france becomes a nightmare to forecast when it is gong to Bugger off north again!

 

[AngusMcDoon]

Hi everyone,

I’d really appreciate your help by taking part in a survey (it will take less than 5 minutes). It is only 10-questions and it would be really useful to have the thoughts and opinions of the users of weather forecasts.

I tried to answer Other to question 1, but it wouldn't let me, and insisted I chose something from your list.

 

[Evadne]

Most seem to treat the audience as complete numpties....

You are underestimating your own expertise if you're referring to general weather forecasts. For these, much of the audience is sadly ignorant of how the weather of the planet they live on happens.

What I really object to is specialist forecasts that do the same, especially by the BBC "weather presenters", whose knowledge of meteorology is pretty woeful, even if they are prettier than Micheal Fish.

 

[fireball]

For these, much of the audience is sadly ignorant of how the weather of the planet they live on happens.

But - if you continue to spoon feed "they" will never learn. Far better to keep a bit of detail in the forecast explaining their educated guesses rather than just stating them as fact.

 

[simonjk]

Yes, my long range did 'wobble', and we always stuck to the 'typical British summer' line.

That's not to say I'm not wrong some of the time too, I think the big problem with the Met Office is one of communication. You cannot put out a 'Barbecue Summer' headline and then expect people to start think it won't be hot and sunny.

 

[MissFitz]

But - if you continue to spoon feed "they" will never learn. Far better to keep a bit of detail in the forecast explaining their educated guesses rather than just stating them as fact.

Totally agree - most people I know (non-sailors) regard weather as something that just happens, with no causal link from one day to the next. Thus, if we're on the edge of two frontal systems & get rain instead of forecast sun one day, that forecast is simply wrong & the forecaster made a mistake.

Perhaps giving headline probabilities would help - at any rate, anything that can be done to educate people about the way weather works & the process of forecasting has to be an improvement on current ignorance.

 

[kingfisher]

Weather reports on the radio and television have become useless for sailors. Cold fronts and depressions have been replaced by little suns and animated clouds on the maps. I'm waiting for the moment that they won't show the temperature in degrees, but in in sweaters/Shirts/t-shirts.
If a front passes over, it could pass in the morning, the day or the night. So if they never teach the public that the cold front decides when the rain will fall, they will predict the passing of a cold front by noon. And when the cold front passes at 22h, people will complain that the met got it completly wrong. So they dug their own grave by using terms like BBQ-weather etc.

 

[Litotes]

What I really object to is specialist forecasts that do the same, especially by the BBC "weather presenters", whose knowledge of meteorology is pretty woeful, even if they are prettier than Micheal Fish.

Julie Reinger, who presents the weather on BBC "Look East" is a very great deal prettier than Michael Fish and is the source of the most reliable forecasts I can get (including expensive ones like Marinecall) I believe she is not, in fact, a fully trained meteorologist, but works out her forecasts using material provided by the University of East Anglia. Whatever her qualifications may be, she does very well indeed. Thanks, Julie!

 

[Wandering Star]

I tried to answer Other to question 1, but it wouldn't let me, and insisted I chose something from your list.

Me too, I've just spent 3 weeks downloading the Mailsail weather GRIBS but when I tried to use the "Other" in answer to question 1, it gives me an error message.

Cheers, Brian.

 

[Evadne]

Julie Reinger, who presents the weather on BBC "Look East" is a very great deal prettier than Michael Fish and is the source of the most reliable forecasts I can get (including expensive ones like Marinecall)

You're lucky in the East. In the Solent area, we used to have weather girls who knew what they are talking about, and produced data that was useful to sailors, but not any more. I find it better to concentrate on the written word or graphics and ignore the spiel with Georgie Palmer et. al.

Regarding General Ignorance, it is rare to come across a lay person who understands the difference between rain and showers, or even a warm front and a cold front, so I have a small amount of sympathy with the Met Office dumbing down brigade.

 

[Bodach na mara]

I have no sympathy with dumbing down brigade. Need is one of the best drivers of learning. When the forecasts used synoptics and conveyed much more information than they do now, the weather department of the Beeb used to do a sterling job of producing programmes to help people to understand how to read forecasts. The current forecasts take a lot of time to put over information that could be assimilated in a few seconds by someone who had learned to interpret a synoptic chart.

Regarding pretty forecasters, we have a few real good-lookers up here and they are mostly clued up as well. But they can only give the forecast in the format the organisation has decided. At least they realise that they are there to communicate, not entertain, so they talk clearly and do not drop their voices so that you miss all the ends of paragraphs.

 

[justapheonix]

Is there any topic more often discussed and yet less understood by the great unwashed than the weather?

The Met Office seems to shoot itself in the foot with startling regularity, and I genuinely feel that forecasts have become less reliable. There have been far too many cracking sailing days this year spent in the garden because of forecasts of inclement conditions.

Regarding TV forecasts and so on, the British approach never, nowadays, involves general improvement, but rather, is driven to cater for the lowest common denominator.

...and some of our denominators are astonishingly low and depressingly common. Those of us further up the food chain are expected to live with it.