Weather Forecast Rant

[Cantata]

As posted elsewhere we returned prematurely from a 2-week cruise because of weather, actual and forecast.
Once again I have found the main ready source of weather info, the Inshore Waters Forecast, to be consistently exaggerated throughout our time away. We sat in various places for a number of days, spooked by forecasts that mentioned 6's and 7's, when the actuals that we observed turned out to be rather less and probably perfectly sailable. On one day there was even a gale warning. There was no gale.
Last night the forecast was saying 4-5, occ 6. This morning it's saying 4-5, occ 6 later. Actual outside my window (close to the beach) at 1045 is 2 to 3.
A few days ago I heard the m.mouse forecast promising a wet day today. Nope, I'm just going outside to cut the grass.
Surely they can do better than this? Why do the forecast areas have to be so huge? Fair enough give a 24-hour forecast but can't we have some more detailed timings within the 24 hours? How about quoting a % likelihood of the various forecast features happening?
With just the two of us on board, no rufty-tufty crew here, I have to take notice of what's broadcast but I am again getting pee'd off with the consistent inaccuracy of what's on offer.

 

[Artemis_C2121]

I concur

Luckily we got three weeks sailing during the very warm period of a month ago or so, listened to the SIB from MCA.

But also used other sources online etc.

Hvae to say I the inshore waters forcast where consistantly OTT.

Cant help thinking that they must be instructed to beef it up just in case

We tend to make a call and stick our nose out see whats happening, too many lost sailing days otherwise

 

[Phoenix of Hamble]

I don't even bother with the Met Office forecasts anymore.

They are consistently wrong, and not just by a little bit, but often (in fact i'd go as far as to say nearly always) completely and utterly wrong.

I accept that argument that the UK geography makes forecasting a particularly difficult task, but howcome the other sources (usually GFS based) tend to make a much better job of it?

The met office has gone IMHO from a Titan of the forecasting industry to a laughing stock.

 

[Hunson]

We had this on our recent journey. The MSI and met office were forcasting 5-6 occ 7, which would have meant that we would have spent another day at Shotley.

It was only the nice gentleman in the tower on Thursday night who showed me some of the other weather sites on the web and specifically XC weather and there predicted winds that made our minds up to go for it.

Though the XC weather was shown red gale force out to the north, this was a considerable distance from land.

On the day we did probably have the 4-5 with the occasional gust but nothing like as you say, as bad as what was reported.

The one thing it taught us was that it will be valuable to have a laptop and wireless connection so we can scan other weather sites.

 

[Cantata]

We did dream up the idea when we were away of starting up a website, www.comparetheweather.com, this would look at all the forecasts on the web and recommend the one with the best weather.
OK I'm being whimsical but they all differ so much it really is pretty hopeless.

 

[Sixpence]

The last time I listened to the MET forecast for my area they said we should expect F4 to F5 when we were high tailing it to home in a F8, so they get it wrong the other way too. Now check online places like XC and have a look at Gribs before making my own mind up.

 

[MoodySabre]

I look at several forecasts but usually not the Inshore and take a majority view. It is all a lottery but makes taking friends or SWMBO out for a gentle confidence building trip a bit tricky. The weather does seem to be hopelessly changeable - not like when I were a lad and we had endless summers of sunshine..................

 

[Debenite]

Local Forecasts

We were away from the Deben to Solent and France fro 5 weeks from early June. This year we found the Inshore forecast had it's usual frustations. The East Coast area is just too big, stretching from The Wash to Kent. The N Foreland stretch to Selsey Bill is more consistent.

Locally, my first port of call is Radio Suffolk( Lowestoft to the Blackwater) which is provided to the BBC by WeatherQuest (boss Jim Bacon). This is nearly always accurate. They also supply Radio Essex

On board I connect my laptop with a USB dongle supplied by Thee.Com. These are now on sale for £19.99 at Staples. I buy 1GB broadband time at £10 pm which stands no end of e mails & internet. It worked everywhere except Chichester where the mast was out of action. Do not use in France as the cost is prohibitive.

I download the US Grib, which supplies most forecasters ,and gives an in depth hourly look at winds for the the next week or so. This year we thought it was a little optomistic and many times the Inshore forecast was more accurate

 

[Peegee]

Are these the same meteorologists/scientists who are giving us their predictions for the distant future ?