Weather book recommendations?

[coopec]

If you're never less than 30Km out to sea then yes, no mobile internet for you. Everyone else uses free wifi at happy hour, local sim, local library, whatever - there's nearly always something. Where are you going to buy books 30Km out to sea?... It's an awful lot easier to find wifi than it is to find a decent bookshop when cruising.

Fingertip grasp to the OP - some more 'how it works' weather on here >>

WeatherSchool

" Where am I going to buy books when 30 km out t sea?" You can't be serious!

I'll buy all sorts of books before I leave - workshop manuals, first aid, flags of the world, maps/atlases, "A Field Guide to Seabirds of the World", "Dangerous Marine Creatures of the Indo Pacific"...........
And since there are no shops 30km out to sea I'll take my food with me. (I suppose you eat at restaurants?)

As far as weather is concerned there are radio Weather Services.

 

[franksingleton]

Alan Watts is an excellent observer. Looking at his two “Instant ....” books, I always have to wonder just how useful they are. Yes they show what is happening now but not, in any meaningful detail, What will happen in the future. The data input is tiny and limited by your horizon. Increasing cirrus is a good indication of a warm front approaching. It gives nlittle indication of timing, wind strength expected, amount of veer on the front etc. I am not saying that it is useless. Rather that use is limited. Just listening to the forecast on VHF will tell you more. Including GRIB data, unknown when he first wrote these, will tell you much more.

 

[coopec]

Alan Watts is an excellent observer. Looking at his two “Instant ....” books, I always have to wonder just how useful they are. Yes they show what is happening now but not, in any meaningful detail, What will happen in the future. The data input is tiny and limited by your horizon. Increasing cirrus is a good indication of a warm front approaching. It gives nlittle indication of timing, wind strength expected, amount of veer on the front etc. I am not saying that it is useless. Rather that use is limited. Just listening to the forecast on VHF will tell you more. Including GRIB data, unknown when he first wrote these, will tell you much more.

Frank
I would agree 100 %.
Looking at historic weather data may be helpful in a minor way and l find looking at weather models like Ventusky are only little more useful as the forecasts are changing almost by the hour. (I am currently looking at Ventusky weather model as we have a low off the coast which may develop into a cyclone)
Weather Forecast Maps

 

[Spirit (of Glenans)]

So, I am still deficient the weather at sea book that I placed on my Father Christmas list.

Any recommendations appreciated. I have in mind a Yacht master level guide to weather at sea, with a modicum of theory, to help with interpreting longer-range forecasts, the barometer and cloud indicators, possibly covering wind strategy for cruising.

Did my YM some decades ago and I think I was always a bit light on this topic.

Thanks!

Notwithstanding all the irrelevancies above, apart from the excellent Frank Singleton's contribution, my recommendation would be The RYA Weather Book, by Chris Tibbs. When I read it I found that it de-mystified what was previously to me a totally arcane subject.

 

[coopec]

Notwithstanding all the irrelevancies above, apart from the excellent Frank Singleton's contribution, my recommendation would be The RYA Weather Book, by Chris Tibbs. When I read it I found that it de-mystified what was previously to me a totally arcane subject.

Comments # 8, 10 and 12 covered the book you recommend. I've taken a note of it and will get a copy for myself. (At just a few dollars for a "pre-owned" copy it sounds like a steal)

 

[coopec]

Notwithstanding all the irrelevancies above, apart from the excellent Frank Singleton's contribution, my recommendation would be The RYA Weather Book, by Chris Tibbs. When I read it I found that it de-mystified what was previously to me a totally arcane subject.

I've just ordered a copy from the US of A so it must be highly regarded. Condition " very good" for $16 (Australian)

 

[franksingleton]

Notwithstanding all the irrelevancies above, apart from the excellent Frank Singleton's contribution, my recommendation would be The RYA Weather Book, by Chris Tibbs. When I read it I found that it de-mystified what was previously to me a totally arcane subject.

I have not sailed or worked in the S Hemisphere. Certainly in the N Hemisphere, there is often coherence from one forecast run to the next. So much so that we can often plan our sailing for the next week. We sail about 4 months, mid-May to late August. Sometimes, there is not consistency and we cannot plan more than a couple of days. Normally, returning to the U.K.,we prefer the 12 hour Guernsey to Dartmouth to longer crossings (for age reasons). This last year, we realised that our preferred option would mean staying in Sr Peter Port for some indeterminate time, at least a week. We chose the passage from Roscoff . Watching subsequent westher, we were quite right to do so. That was not an isolated example.

I would be surprised if model performance was significantly worse in the S Hemisphere.

 

[coopec]

I have not sailed or worked in the S Hemisphere. Certainly in the N Hemisphere, there is often coherence from one forecast run to the next. So much so that we can often plan our sailing for the next week. We sail about 4 months, mid-May to late August. Sometimes, there is not consistency and we cannot plan more than a couple of days. Normally, returning to the U.K.,we prefer the 12 hour Guernsey to Dartmouth to longer crossings (for age reasons). This last year, we realised that our preferred option would mean staying in Sr Peter Port for some indeterminate time, at least a week. We chose the passage from Roscoff . Watching subsequent westher, we were quite right to do so. That was not an isolated example.

I would be surprised if model performance was significantly worse in the S Hemisphere.

Last night I watched a weather forecaster say on TV that the weather models were getting more and more accurate.

But when Edward Lorenz (a weather forecaster) says a butterfly flapping it's wings in Chile can affect the weather in another part of the world significantly you have to wonder.

"Lorenz discovered the effect when he observed that runs of his weather model with initial condition data that was rounded in a seemingly inconsequential manner would fail to reproduce the results of runs with the unrounded initial condition data. A very small change in initial conditions had created a significantly different outcome."

CHAOS THEORY -BUTTERFLY EFFECT

 

[franksingleton]

Last night I watched a weather forecaster say on TV that the weather models were getting more and more accurate.

But when Edward Lorenz (a weather forecaster) says a butterfly flapping it's wings in Chile can affect the weather in another part of the world significantly you have to wonder.

"Lorenz discovered the effect when he observed that runs of his weather model with initial condition data that was rounded in a seemingly inconsequential manner would fail to reproduce the results of runs with the unrounded initial condition data. A very small change in initial conditions had created a significantly different outcome."
CHAOS THEORY -BUTTERFLY EFFECT

This is trotted out time and time again.

First, you should read the original Lorenz paper, http://eaps4.mit.edu/research/Lorenz/Deterministic_63.pdf, or at least the conclusions. Also The Butterfly Effect: Everything You Need to Know About This Powerful Mental Model. It is a concept much misunderstood by the lay public and some scientists. Clearly, there is uncertainty in any weather forecast. I usually point out that the weather is not precise, so how can a forecast be precise? At a meeting of the Royal Met Society, the butterfly effect was discussed. Someone said that, maybe, a few million butterflies flapping winds in unison but not a single butterfly.

The problem is tackled practically by the use of model ensembles. A forecast is run then re-run many times with small variations in the initial analysis while maintaining consistency with the data. Usually, the results are fairly consistent but, sometimes, differ markedly. Take a look at Meteociel - Tableaux ENS GFS nouvelle génération to get an idea. As a practically minded sailor, I advocate looking at successive (12 or 24 hours) forecasts and look for consistency. It works well.

But, as I say, the atmosphere is not precise. Despite the large scale evolution being well predicted as it often is, there can always be relatively small, local variations that are important to the sailor. There are limits to predictability. Your man on TV was correct, forecasts have increased greatly in accuracy. When I first worked as a meteorologist, we could only give an outlook for a further two days beyond today and, sometimes, we only gave a one day outlook. Now, I frequently hear forecasters talk about the next week. Looking at NWP output, I am pretty sure that the next 10 days over S UK will be generally mild with winds mostly westerly or southerly. That would;d have been impossible 50 years ago and dodgy 20 years ago. But, there are still occasions when the forecaster will say that there is uncertainty about developments. The ability to distinguish between levels of confidence is significant. Using the “Singleton” technique, if successive forecasts differ, then we do not plan more than a day or so ahead,

 

[franksingleton]

As a PS to # 29 I add Understanding the Butterfly Effect

 

[Refueler]

I know its a bit late for Xmas .... but the definitive book that is used by Professional Shipping :

Meteorology for Mariners

Issued by Her Majestys Sationery Office

MET.O. 593

It is revised every so often but even the old versions are still as valid today as when originally written.

 

[coopec]

I know its a bit late for Xmas .... but the definitive book that is used by Professional Shipping :

Meteorology for Mariners

Issued by Her Majestys Sationery Office

MET.O. 593

It is revised every so often but even the old versions are still as valid today as when originally written.

There's a lot of "pre-owned" copies on eBay from the UK and Us of A for around $30 (Australian)

 

[franksingleton]

I know its a bit late for Xmas .... but the definitive book that is used by Professional Shipping :

Meteorology for Mariners

Issued by Her Majestys Sationery Office

MET.O. 593

It is revised every so often but even the old versions are still as valid today as when originally written.

I might well be wrong but I do not think that has been revised since 1979. The meteorology will be good but, knowing how it was being re-written at thst time, and how long it took, it is certain to be greatly out of date regarding numerical weather prediction.