Vendée Globe 2016-2017

mainsail1 said:
Alex, please break away and go East towards the Portuguese shore. At least you may then get better winds. A gamble I know, but you are not going to win as tail end charlie trying to closely overtake Armel.
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I agree. I don't think he will overtake if he follows the same course. Now is the time to gamble by taking a different route to the finish - which way though? If he goes east he will just get headwinds.
 
MoodySabre said:
Do you think that, in say 12 hours time, AT could duck under that high pressure. Slowly and on a port tack but leaving ALC stranded west of it?
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Indeed that appears the sensible thing to do.......until I look at another wind source and find the data is different. I suppose the answer is that I haven't a clue and should leave it to the professionals! Back to being an onlooker.
 
BBC South Today have had some coverage. Tonight for example they mentioned the new record and how close he is to Armel and had a clip from the latest video although sound only. Better than nothing I suppose.
 
Watch Alex's latest video. It seems he has a steering problem which is preventing him from going full steam. I think Alex's boat is faster but given the steering problem he will only be able to win this race by a tactical move. An accidental gybe at this stage could easily dismast him.
 
A 75 mile plus gain in less than 3 days is seemingly asking a lot. However the variables using the Remora model (which may or may not be correct) such as: the filling of the high in the SW approaches to the Channel, the timing of the tack onto a port layline for Les Sables and the strength and direction of the NE wind forecast in Biscay on 18th and 19th Jan make for a very intersting and somewhat uncetain series of events which could well sway the outcome one way or another! Let's hope it all favours Alex!
 
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I agree with the above post and if Remora is correct and based on current routing he is unlikely to catch Armel and will come in 3 to 4 hours behind him. It would be a risky option but heading due East now -and then hug the Northern coast of Spain he could, if the wind shifts as predicted (in the model) enable him to get back on a starboard tack towards the finish after 12-15 hours. But - probably too dodgy with a risk of having to beat for a long leg towards the finish line.

I bet his shore side team have no fingernails left.

Meanwhile back at the Horn, three of the four rounded today with Rich Wilson lined up to round within 12 hours - the weather looks pretty nasty there at the mo.
 
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AT needs to make the turn east first and after the 21h schedule, then he has a 7 hour window before Armel would know. Sneaky but might pay off. AT won't win by following and he has to gamble now!
 
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Andrew E said:
AT needs to make the turn east first and after the 21h schedule, then he has a 7 hour window before Armel would know. Sneaky but might pay off. AT won't win by following and he has to gamble now!
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I agree. 2 days or so ago I wondered if AT might do a big following circuit around the High, hoping Armel would go direct towards Les Sables. It would be quite a guess which would be quicker.

Now, if AT goes east, he has wind, whereas Armel has light variables in front and to his east.

Both deserve to win, but in any sporting contest, one deso not always get what one deserves.
 
Alex got basically one last chance - I thought he might have tried yesterday to go East. He didn't. Now, he will need to take a chance and go east before Armel - but I cannot really see that happening as there shouldn't be an opening. I think that's it, unless Armel breaks the boat or does a stupid mistake.
 
Rich Wilson about to round the Horn.
Conrad Colman is stealing a march on Eric Bellion who has got himself into a bit of a mess.
Based on the model I hope Alex strikes East at 1800 GMT today, I suspect Armel has this covered and may spring first.
Exciting stuff.
 
As said above, he's not going to overtake Armel by following in his wake. Relying on Armel breaking something or whatever may be wishful thinking in the extreme.
Bold decision for Alex, but I agree with the "turn right now" thinking.
He's not much further from Les Sables than Armel as the crow flies and he might just score a surprise.

As said, he's probably only going to come second otherwise.

Go for Alex :encouragement: - glad it's not my decision........:eek:
 
He can't tack now. He should have done it yesterday. Now he just needs to pray for the winds to be slightly different being 80 NM behind and to tack before Armel. But even there, it will be either on a port tack or close to the wind- where Armel is faster than him.
You never know until it's over, and the weather is a bit odd, but I cannot see that happening. Especially because we are now approaching Armel training grounds...
 
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