TK's Report on Climate Change concludes...

[Twister_Ken]

TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

...Despite all the foregoing evidence in favour of human-driven climate change, the nature of humanity itself is that it will eventually drive its species to mass (if not total) extinction through one mechanism or another.

The question for global human society to ponder (although, no doubt, it will fail to reach a definitive conclusion) is whether it is worth taking action now, to delay for a century or two its inevitable extinction, or whether to carry on regardless on the basis that, on a geological timescale, another century more or less is an irrelevance.

The panel's secondary conclusion is that humanity should record in a geologically and historically robust form its scandalous neglect of the health of its host planet, so that Earth's successor parasites may have the chance to learn from humanity's mistakes.

 

[sailbadthesinner]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

ken its basically
who is prepared to give up the life they have now with four by fours and dare i say gas guzzling boats
business, which rule the worls not governments who are funded by said business, believe they cannot survive the changes needed to be made
so we all go down together
when it comes down to stopping carbon emmissions
its that playground sitaution of you first..no you firsts..but i said it first


the good news is i was at a cconference recently
the chinese basically were aware that every unit they produce uses about 4 times the energy, resources and labour that we use and know that is not sustainable
they see themsleves as moving to a knowledge based economy
they are working on their own 4G protocol on mobiles. According to erriccson ( who know a thing or 2) they have already achieved in 4 years what erricsson admiot would have taken them 11. so they will devise the 4th generation and syndicate it worls wide and that is just telco who kknows what else they have planned.

 

[bedouin]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

Too true.

The human race is roughly divided into two camps - the altruists who care and the egoists who don't.

The egoist (who usually drives a 4x4 or other gas-guzzler and often doesn't have children) takes the view that there is nothing that can be done to improve things in his lifetime - and anyway he'll be dead before things get really bad. The egoist will hide behind pseudo-scientific doubts or resort to sophism to dodge the issues. The supreme egoist of this generation (in this context) is of course GWB

The altruist on the other hand takes responsibility for future generations and does what he can to make their lives better.

Humanity has been teetering on the brink of extinction for decades and there is a bit of a race between science and human stupidity - science keeps rescuing us from our own stupidity and eventually science will come up with solutions for global warning - if we are all extinct by then

 

[JackIron]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

Its a cosmic bucket of yeast (man).........were all just going to keep consuming until all our 'sugar' is used up and we have farted out our last bit of carbon dioxide......by product is alcohol....not so bad....if there's anyone left to drink it.

Pass me the,

JackIron

 

[MarkG]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

...Despite all the foregoing evidence in favour of human-driven climate change, the nature of humanity itself is that it will eventually drive its species to mass (if not total) extinction through one mechanism or another.

I believe this is true, as you say whether the extinction comes about by climate change or conflict remains to be seen.


The question for global human society to ponder (although, no doubt, it will fail to reach a definitive conclusion) is whether it is worth taking action now, to delay for a century or two its inevitable extinction, or whether to carry on regardless on the basis that, on a geological timescale, another century more or less is an irrelevance.

I also believe there is a way forward that might just stop both the human conflict along with climate change. Years ago the Chinese started it, namely 'one family one child' - this would need to be worldwide. The benefits would take time and I can't see how it would be put into action right now...

The panel's secondary conclusion is that humanity should record in a geologically and historically robust form its scandalous neglect of the health of its host planet, so that Earth's successor parasites may have the chance to learn from humanity's mistakes.

Not sure what would be put into this 'Blue Peter box in the ground' type thing, but I would wonder if you put details such as how we lived during these times whether that would be like the tree you try to avoid when skiing/cycling etc, it becomes the thing they would try to do..

Interesting topic...I would also add to keep it Boaty that I would need to get rid of the engine and sail into my marina berth under sail, which although not impossible would be something needing a bit of practice...especially the going astern when you're going downwind...

 

[steviewhitts]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

I recommend to the Panel a book called "Plan B 2.0: rescuing a Planet under stress and a civilisation in trouble". The author, Lester R Brown looks at all the different facets of human life that are screwing the planet up and suggests some interesting approaches to dealing with them all as a complete Solution Vs Problem. One interesting fact (IIRC) is that his plan would cost c. X Billion dollars a year globally to help save the planet. The G8 countries spend more than this sum annually on Defence alone!
Food for thought ........ if there is any left in 50 years time.

Steve

 

[sighmoon]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

"The end of the world is nigh."

I watched a program the other night, looking at the evidence for how much of global warming we're causing. It left me a little sceptical. The famous bit bandied about is the graph which shows a rapid warming since the 1850s, diverging from the expected temperature from malanchovich cycles. So then they add on greenhouse gasses, and the predicted temperature goes off on its own, but then neatly intersects with the graph of actual temperatures a year or two ago, probably when the graph was created, which suggests to me the proof might be circular.

Don't get me wrong, I'm convinced it's happening, but I'm not sure we've got the cause nailed down.

It's not just greenhouse gasses that have increased since 1850, but world population. A lot of our current activity has heat as a bi-product. We heat up our homes in the winter (always have done, but there are a lot more of us now), most machinery pumps out heat. Surely all this heat has to be a factor. So are cow farts, apparently, and there are more cows now, too.

Also, if the ice caps melt, so the gulf stream shuts down, so Northern Europe gets colder, surely the ice caps reform?

And the bit about averaging all the models to get a right answer is deeply suspect, as the models rest on similar assumptions. The golf course analogy, where the balls are all scattered around the hole, would be better suited to a blindfolded golfer - the balls have no more chance of being around the hole than anywhere else.

I know nothing about this, but I'm not convinced anybody else does either, and the danger is that if we manage to reduce CO2 levels, and there's no progress, the whole idea of global warming will lose political capital.

 

[Lakesailor]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

So which is the better?

You don't say.


Put me down for the former. You have classified me as that, rather simplistically, on the basis of my car, and whether I have children.
I understood that stereotyping was not socially acceptable these days. Especially from an altruist.

 

[Moonshining]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

The heat to heat our homes and power the machinery is generally produced by fossil fuels, which emit greenhouse gases. Without the greenhouse gases, the excess heat would radiate into space.

 

[bedouin]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

It's not for me to say which is better - I was just making observations not moral judgments.

If you want to get philosophical about it the "egoist" and "altruist" represent different moral codes (i.e. religions) and the last thing we want is a religious argument /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

 

[Bodach na mara]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

Like sighmoon, I am a bit of a sceptic. As a physicist, who has been studying and teaching physics as related to the environment for over 40 years, I find a lot of agreement with Richard Linzen (Prof of Meteorology at MIT I think) who is quoted in the recent newsletter of the IoP Energy Management group as saying that it is disgraceful that "scientists" are trying to achieve credibility by repeating as "fact" things that have no evidential basis.

Just why I am sceptical. I am not able to explain as my beliefs in aspects of conservation and waste management are close to those of the climate lobby. I do not drive a car any larger than I need for my family and the nature of the roads where I live. (I need a diesel to cope with the frequest flooding.) I am strongly in favour of recycling and waste reduction. I also believe that we should all reduce our consumption of energy and materials by insulating our homes, using renewables, and a planned replacement of obsolete housing.

A few points to ponder:
The climate of Britain has changed since the time of Charles Dickens; evidence via literature.
The climate of Britain also changed between the era of Chaucer and that of Dickens. Literature and diaries again.
The earlier change was dramatic cooling. The more recent has been warming. These changes relate only to Britain. They say nothing about "global" temperature, if you can define and measure such a thing.

All the stories of sea levels rising in the past 50 years by any significant amount are b*llocks. I started studying sea levels 61 years ago (OK I was playing in rock pools). I was back at the same rock pools last year and they are not noticable different.

 

[JackIron]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

Don't worry about global warming.

When the poles reverse - which they will - the South pole is infact a North Pole and vice versa - we will all fry anyway. Its only overdue by a few thousand years - and indications are that the magnetism of the earth diminishes as the event draws near - records indicate that that is indeed the case.

The magnosphere (or some such) deflects the solar wind - a flip in the poles could halt this deflection....and tiz a rather warmer wind than one would care to be sailing in!

As I say, pass me the...

Jack Iron

 

[Moonshining]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

[ QUOTE ]
ll the stories of sea levels rising in the past 50 years by any significant amount are b*llocks. I started studying sea levels 61 years ago (OK I was playing in rock pools). I was back at the same rock pools last year and they are not noticable different.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's because ye's in Scotland, which is still heading upwards due to isostatic rebound after the last ice age.

 

[Twister_Ken]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

Humanity is not a unit. It is an heterogenuity of 6,573,771,521 (and growing) individual units, each equipped to a greater or lesser extent with the ability to make its own decisions, despite the best and worst efforts of its elected and unelected governments.

The prospect of all of those individuals deciding to behave alturistically in regard to climate and each other's well-being is unrealistic. Rather, some will make decisions - one way or another - and rather more will decide not to decide, but to go on watching Big Brother.

In which event, goodbye humankind. But not goodbye Earth.

 

[capt_courageous]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

Hi Ken
For a while I earned a crust by investigating the absorbtion spectra of the atmosphere. I annoys and frustrates me to hear this Orwellian chanting about 'green house' gases and being told what 'most scientists' believe. People who use these terms obviously do not know how a greenhouse or the atmosphere 'works'. By far the main heat absorber in the atmosphere is naturally occuring water vapour. Its contribution is some 90 to 95% of the total. Other natural sources - including CO2 - bring the natural total to over 99.5%. How much over is what is under discussion. These alarmists never mention anything but man made sources and I always wonder why. It does however completely undermine their conclusions. I firmly believe it is wrong and stupid to waste any of the Earth's resources and do not need to be told so by such people. What we need is more science and reason and less hype.

 

[Lakesailor]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

I miror your thoughts and attitudes.
I dislike waste. I realise that fossil fuels are finite. I have no argument with those who wish to live a sustainable lifestyle.
It's the Man-has-created-Armagedon philosophy that , like you, I cannot see any justifiable proof for.

 

[bedouin]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

[ QUOTE ]

A few points to ponder:
The climate of Britain has changed since the time of Charles Dickens; evidence via literature.
The climate of Britain also changed between the era of Chaucer and that of Dickens. Literature and diaries again.
The earlier change was dramatic cooling. The more recent has been warming. These changes relate only to Britain. They say nothing about "global" temperature, if you can define and measure such a thing.

All the stories of sea levels rising in the past 50 years by any significant amount are b*llocks. I started studying sea levels 61 years ago (OK I was playing in rock pools). I was back at the same rock pools last year and they are not noticable different.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised that someone claiming to be a scientist makes comments like that.

Global warming is a fact that no scientist can dispute. What people can argue about is the impact of Global Warming on any one particular climate. So it may be that England will get a mediterranean climate, or it may be that the Gulf Stream will switch off and we will get much colder winters.

Rising Sea Levels are also a fact - if you doubt that just ask those islanders whose islands have disappeared.

You say that you haven't seen any difference but (a) I don't believe that your memory over 60 years is accurate enough to tell - we are talking about only a few inches rise so far compared to tides of several feet and (b) Scotland is rising anyway

If you look at London you will see that the Thames barrier is being raised more and more often - and it is expected to be obsolete by 2020 when the sea levels will have risen too much for it to cope.

 

[Lakesailor]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

[ QUOTE ]
the last thing we want is a religious argument /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ] Amen to that.

 

[Twister_Ken]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

>If you look at London you will see that the Thames barrier is being raised more and more often<

Bit of blind side stat, that. I was talking with the PLA's head of engineering about the self same thing and he enlightened me.

It HAS been closed far more often, but usually in periods of very heavy rainfall upstream. Then it's closed at LW, not to prevent tidal flooding of London, but to prevent river flooding above Teddington (the end of the tidal Thames). By closing it at LW they prevent the Thames re-filling with seawater (well, esturine water anyway), leaving more capacity for upstream floodwater to drain off into the lower Thames. The barrier is then reopened at HW to let the flood water reach the sea.

One side effect. Stopping the inflowing tide creates a big silt build-up just below the barrier, so they have to dredge quite frequently when they are doing that, to keep a shipping channel open.

 

[Lakesailor]

Re: TK\'s Report on Climate Change concludes...

Which demonstrates how the carbon-disaster devotees will missread anything as long as it may seem to support their argument.