Tidal Surge this week
- Thread starter Greg2
- Start date
dennyjc
Well-Known Member
Hmmm,
Let's not get sucked in by the EADT
Most of the experts on local tide heights and surges are already contributors to this forum
I doubt whether the EADT journalist knows the difference between overtopping, surge and a normal astronomic high tide.
It looks like there are a couple of opportunities for positive surges this week - probably on 25th and 29th
Neither days have the 'ideal conditions' for a monster positive surge nor do either have enough onshore wind to build the big waves needed for overtopping.
In my opinion, for what it's worth, I'd expect a positive surge of around 0.5m on 25th and possibly a bit more on 29th
If this coincides with HW then that will be quite a big tide but not nearly as big as December 2013.
I'd guess we'll see no more than 5.0m on the Harwich gauge.
(now to sit back and be proved an idiot)
Hydrozoan
Well-Known Member
Yes, that gives the surge forecasts, which I've been going on about, not the real time levels. Perhaps the links to the surge prediction graphs which I've given don't work for others - it's a bit of a mystery to me.
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Hydrozoan
Well-Known Member
Mine has two: one positive, one negative – and each produces a seiche; I must go on a diet!
Look on the bright side, it’s not the Suffolk Gazette
: http://www.suffolkgazette.com/news/man-drowned-bath-baked-beans/
Greg2
Well-Known Member
Heard today that the risk has been downgraded......now less likely to happen.
To answer a question it was the Wisbech harbourmaster and the river Nene but I saw the documentation which indicated a high risk of a significant surge on Thursday along the entire east coast down as far as Dover. The west coast was less likely to be affected.
To answer a question it was the Wisbech harbourmaster and the river Nene but I saw the documentation which indicated a high risk of a significant surge on Thursday along the entire east coast down as far as Dover. The west coast was less likely to be affected.
Habebty
Well-Known Member
There will be no massive surge. (Edit, this week )
Wind direction is wrong.
More importantly, surface pressure is wrong,
It is difficult to predict a surge as far out as the Wisbech HM was led to believe, as pressure, low system direction, wind, and tide times need to coincide.
A 24 h in advance, possibly 36h, watch of the NTSL data and surface pressure charts, is the best way this time of year. It's what I do for work to protect some of our infrastructure,, and it is normally pretty damn accurate.
)Wind direction is wrong.
More importantly, surface pressure is wrong,
It is difficult to predict a surge as far out as the Wisbech HM was led to believe, as pressure, low system direction, wind, and tide times need to coincide.
A 24 h in advance, possibly 36h, watch of the NTSL data and surface pressure charts, is the best way this time of year. It's what I do for work to protect some of our infrastructure,, and it is normally pretty damn accurate.
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Tiller Girl
Well-Known Member
Port of Wells are downsizing the risk this week. It will be posted on my Temporary NtM list when my something, something software finishes uploading.
Hydrozoan
Well-Known Member
Latest NTSLF surge forecast ca. minus 0.8m for Sheerness tomorrow: see http://www.ntslf.org/storm-surges/latest-surge-forecast?port=Sheerness. I think that's the largest for the East Coast sites - but DYOR.