The (economic) winter of our discontent

[tcm]

Re: ooh - have we misread the question?

I wonder, was ken really asking:

a) How often should he hover around the brokers over winter, even tho the boat might be out of the water?

b) Are chained-up boats the first sign of bad times or other there other signs of withering shoots?

c) Wouldn't it be a Good Idea for everyone to chain boats to the pontoon to simulate mass bankruptcy and induce marinas to sell us long leases for the price of a cup of tea?

 

[Jeremy_W]

Re: house price crash

I don't want to see a crash happening but consider this: since WW2 the average house price trend has been 3.5 times the national average wage. That's the trend through high and low interest rates; high and low inflation; job security and job insecurity; the switch from bread-earner+housewife to two income families..

Both times in that period that the ratio has gone over five it has been followed by a massive correction. In the seventies prices and wages rocketed (the Tony Barber legacy inflation) while house prices rose more slowly. In the late eighties/nineties the correction came in a house price crash.

NAW £20K+; average house price £100K. If we're not at the tragic figure of five we soon will be. What then?

 

[Spacewaist]

Blairism on a stick

This encapsulates the entirety of Tonyism in the fairy tale land in which he lives. Gordon is cast as the magicless Wizard. Lets hope our story has a happy ending.

 

[Chris_Robb]

Re: house price boom

Cornwall has a high volatilaty rating - ie very large increase in price compared with number of transactions.

This means that when transaction numbers fall - the drop in price could well be proportional to the increase - ie very sizable.

With much of the price increase occuring (I presume) in prime site second homes, and with the City being as dead as a dodo at the moment - no bonuses - and hundreds of high earner jobs lost, where is the demand going to come from to keep the prices at least static?

Some of the poor guys (who earned big bonuses from our pensions) will no doubt have to sell.

 

[JeremyF]

Mortgage rates

Apparently most mas-market manufacturers had a very good SIBS. I think there is an element of... Sod it, its no point investing in the market. Mortgage rates are low. Lets borrow some money against the house. The key to maintaining confidence is low mortgage rates, methinks.

Now, while there are more new boats around, the demand for marina berths will remain. It will be fascinating to see what action the marinas take. Mine, thankfully, has decided to play cautious, and existing bertholders get a rise of 2.5%. However, what MDL do will actually set the market rate for next year. John Watson has yet to comment, but as Ive said before, what he does with prices next year will be a key indicator of the future direction of MDL, and whether it is genuinely a changing company.

I therefore don't anticipate a collapse in berthing prices in the short term. Even if supply catches up with demand, by dint of falling demand, then I would anticipate tactical pricing deals to fill the last 10% of berths, rather than a wholesale price reduction.



<font color=blue>Jeremy Flynn/forums/images/icons/crazy.gif
Dawn Chorus</font color=blue>

 

[ParaHandy]

Re: Blairism on a stick with George dubya

Oooh... it gets better does tcm's allegorical tale.......

In the Emerald City ruled by the Wizard of Oz, the people were required to wear green-colored glasses attached by a gold buckle. Beyond the city, the Wicked Witch of the West had enslaved the yellow Winkies, a reference to the imperialist aims of the Republican administration, which had captured the Philippines.

 

[Twister_Ken]

Re: house price boom

There are a couple of streets near us with very grand houses. At one point a few years back a high proportion of them were for sale. Local estate agents referred to them as 'Lloyd's of London' houses.

 

[jwatson]

Re: Mortgage rates

...and I will probably not comment publicly any further Jeremy (other than to my customers direct).
I do not agree we set the market rates. We have not published a tariff so how can you claim this?
Each operator should look to their own businesses and charge according to their locations, facilities, cost base and demand.
Are you in business yourself?
Stay well,
John
MD
MDL

 

[jimi]

Mission Vision

John,
I've got a business proposition for you. Each time one of the boats from one of your Marina's return from the continent, they sell you at cost 2 doz bottles of wine & several thousand fags (any money they make on illegal immigrants they retain). You then offload these to local offies at a slight markup and then subsidise the berths with any profit made in this way, together with fees from renting out their berth in their absence.

What do you think?

Or do you think we ought to have a feasibility study on the London Eye integrated power generation & berthing system?

or perhaps both!


Jim

 

[JeremyF]

Re: Mortgage rates

John,

You operate in what economists would call a complex monopoly. Even if you do not publish tariffs, you nevertheless set the benchmark for smaller operators. They quickly get a view of what is happening at MDL.

The reality is that they take a look at the MDL, and then set their prices according to location, facilities, and demand.

I don't beelieve anyone uses cost plus pricing. They use market pricing, and then establish a cost base to give a reasonable return on Capex and Opex.

I'm delighted that Campers has delayed the building of the new marina office. I'd much prefer a 2.5% rise, and portacabins, rather than a rise to fund a £2m white elephant.

Yes, I'm in business, but unfortunately there is more capacity than demand. You are in a very priveleged position, I trust you will not abuse this position while the market is good for you.

<font color=green>Jeremy Flynn/forums/images/icons/crazy.gif
Dawn Chorus</font color=green>

 

[oldgit]

Sorry Peter cannot agree with you at all.Perhaps you are selling stuff nobody wants anymore.I am also self employed with the same so called problems you mention, if you do not think that what you are doing is worth it anymore go do something else.We brits sit and whinge.Our colonial chums dump run and go find what people want to buy.Lifes a real bitch innit !

Just hold tight dear it will not be so rough when we get round the corner,trust me.

 

[Guest]

Fred
I actually do have machines people would "like" to buy but in the current ecconomic climate they feel that its more prudent to wait and hang on to their cash. With many companies in the same trade as them going to the wall confidence is the lowest I've know it in 30 years working in this industry. So like I said "what BOOM".

 

[Guest]

Re: Mortgage rates

Heres a question for you?. I own a Vauxhall Omega Estate which at a guess is 5 mtrs long. If I park it in an NCP cark park it costs me £2 per hour (if I'm outside London). It would probably cost me much more if I was inside what is concidered to be a high priced area . I dont have the possibility to hook up to water or electric, I dont have showers or laundry facilities, I may however have the possibility of using a "smelly Loo". If I leave it there for 1 year I reckon it will cost me £17,472. How does that compare with leaving a 10 mtr boat in a marina?
Probably with a 24 hr security guard/CCTV/showers/electric/water/laundry etc.
As far as I can see those of you who wish to leave your boat in the Solent area (for what ever reason) are leaving it in a high priced area. You only have to look at the price of waterfront property in that part of the world to realise that it is the "London" of sailing and you should expect to pay more than say my area (Kent).
If I keep my boat in a MDL marina I can choose to go to another MDL marina and get some "free" nights this allows me to move around the country with reasonable ease. So I ask you does it seem reasonable that matched up against NCP, MDL aren't quite as bad as we like to make out?

 

[oldgit]

Re: NCP vis MDL

but in the MDL marina you may find the wheels have not being nicked off your boat and it sitting on a pile of bricks. then again.

Just hold tight dear it will not be so rough when we get round the corner,trust me.

 

[oldgit]

Re: houses we need to build more

In ye olden dayes only one person was working ie 20k or eqiv.
Now 2 x 20k or nearer 26k actually
2 x 26 ish sort of 40-50k.Therefore ratio more like x 2/3 maybe
Result happy happy etc.

Just hold tight dear it will not be so rough when we get round the corner,trust me.

 

[Jeremy_W]

Re: houses we need to build more

Yes, I've heard this theory about the growth of two-earner households altering the ratio of average house price to average wage. In fact, I AGREE in theory that the ratio should have altered dramatically. But historically it didn 't. As I said the stability of this ratio, across fifty years of major social change, is amazing.

The positive factors now are low interest rates and more people in fixed rate deals. Among other negatives are student debt, personal debt, job insecurity and divorce rates.

 

[jwatson]

Re: Mortgage rates

Right Peter - you just made my Christmas card list!

 

[JeremyF]

Not an attack on John

Peter,

All I am saying that as a market leader in a complex monopoly, John has a responsibility to the industry to go easy with price rises when demand is boyant, otherwise he will find it tough if/when there is a recession.

<font color=green>Jeremy Flynn/forums/images/icons/crazy.gif
Dawn Chorus</font color=green>

 

[jimi]

Re: Mortgage rates

I completely agree Peter, my only whinge is that because I'm a couple of feet longer than the guy in the identical berth next door, I pay more. Thats not fair.

Jim

 

[Iota]

Re: Mortgage rates

I do not believe that MDL do set the trend in pricing.

If you look at the pricing trends say between Dover & Liverpool over the past few years there is quite a variance by year on rises.

If you then break down by the multiples... MDL, Premier, Dean & Reddyhof,Yacht Havens, C&N there is even less correlation.

Certainly MDL do not have anything like a monopIy around the country as a whole but do have a concentration in the Solent.

I certainly do not believe that John who graces these forum (A)(AE) (II) has any obligation to share his business strategy or pricing with an open forum like this, why should he?

Your marina has told you of the pricing increase for berth holders but I note you are less forthcoming about say new berth holders, I suspect that this is because that is all you have been told by another bertholder or the 'office'.

MDL have over the years become a conveniant whipping boy for those who spend their time on the water for pleasure, however I am not aware of many unhappy customers of MDL and they are not queing to leave and go to other marinas.

If you think that a cartel exists, as you perhaps imply , we would all welcome some proof. I do not believe that there is one.

I have no connection with any particular marina group or independant operator.