Sydney Hobart 2023

[dunedin]

Must have been a very frustrating end to the Sydney Hobart for Comanche, with the fickle wind of the Derwent River causing them to park up less than a mile from the finish, and Law Connect able to see them parked and sail gently round them in a slightly stronger patch of zephyr - Rolex Sydney Hobart: Final mile decides Line Honours in favour of LawConnect

No record pace this year but still amazingly fast. Local boat Alive is currently the clubhouse leader, waiting to see if any of the chasing pack can steal the handicap win. But forecasts look like will get tough for the rest of the fleet still out there.

Meanwhile the Clipper fleet are about to pass in the other direction.

 

[Cariadco]

Brilliant close finish, after all them miles racing.
Looks like Alive, the RP66 might get the Overall, but maybe one of the smaller one's will get it? Like Min River, a JPK 10:30 or Kraken, a Sunfast 3300...Giant killers. ..!

 

[Laser310]

~70fters ended up favoured by the conditions.

they were able to sail pretty much as direct a route as the 100fters (even more direct near the end).., but sailed the last 12 hours or so in more wind than the 100fters

 

[dunedin]

~70fters ended up favoured by the conditions.

they were able to sail pretty much as direct a route as the 100fters (even more direct near the end).., but sailed the last 12 hours or so in more wind than the 100fters

And now looks to have turned into headwinds for The rest of the fleet to battle into. Handicap racing is always a bit of a lottery which generally favours one size/type

 

[flaming]

And now looks to have turned into headwinds for The rest of the fleet to battle into. Handicap racing is always a bit of a lottery which generally favours one size/type

Yep. Ignore the overall and try and win your class. Then hope your class happened to be the one most blessed by the conditions.

 

[Laser310]

Yep. Ignore the overall and try and win your class. Then hope your class happened to be the one most blessed by the conditions.

The Newport-Bermuda race organizers are trying a new rating approach, which they hope will change this

The race has historically been rated under ORR - like ORC, a descendant of IMS, using PCS: performance curve scoring

they had a (secret) "Bermuda course", which was basically a table of TWS/TWA frequency that they thought characterized the average race, and all boat were subject to the same table.

for the last race, they updated this table based on a study of reananlysis data.

of course, the problem is that not all races are like the average race.., and as with this S2H race, even within a race, boats sail in completely different conditions.

For the 2024 race in June, they are ditching the average TWA/TWS table, and will apply each boat's sec/mile TWA/TWS rating to the TWA/TWS predicted to be encountered by each boat by routing that boat in expedition with a forecast from the morning of the race.

so, if the fast boats sail a race that is mostly reaching and downwind.., and the slow boats sail a race that is a beat.., the idea is that this will account for that and make the competition for the overall prize more fair.

Newport Bermuda Race 2024 will be scored using a Forecast Time Correction Factor (Competitor Briefing #4) - Newport Bermuda Race

 

[jamie N]

For the 2024 race in June, they are ditching the average TWA/TWS table, and will apply each boat's sec/mile TWA/TWS rating to the TWA/TWS predicted to be encountered by each boat by routing that boat in expedition with a forecast from the morning of the race.

so, if the fast boats sail a race that is mostly reaching and downwind.., and the slow boats sail a race that is a beat.., the idea is that this will account for that and make the competition for the overall prize more fair.

Newport Bermuda Race 2024 will be scored using a Forecast Time Correction Factor (Competitor Briefing #4) - Newport Bermuda Race

Sounds like a sailing equivalent of the Duckworth-Lewis system in Cricket.

 

[flaming]

The Newport-Bermuda race organizers are trying a new rating approach, which they hope will change this

The race has historically been rated under ORR - like ORC, a descendant of IMS, using PCS: performance curve scoring

they had a (secret) "Bermuda course", which was basically a table of TWS/TWA frequency that they thought characterized the average race, and all boat were subject to the same table.

for the last race, they updated this table based on a study of reananlysis data.

of course, the problem is that not all races are like the average race.., and as with this S2H race, even within a race, boats sail in completely different conditions.

For the 2024 race in June, they are ditching the average TWA/TWS table, and will apply each boat's sec/mile TWA/TWS rating to the TWA/TWS predicted to be encountered by each boat by routing that boat in expedition with a forecast from the morning of the race.

so, if the fast boats sail a race that is mostly reaching and downwind.., and the slow boats sail a race that is a beat.., the idea is that this will account for that and make the competition for the overall prize more fair.

Newport Bermuda Race 2024 will be scored using a Forecast Time Correction Factor (Competitor Briefing #4) - Newport Bermuda Race

That’s an awful idea.

in distance races people generally accept that sometimes their boat suits what nature provided, and sometimes not. This just sounds like a way to ensure that everyone is unhappy and protests about what forecast etc will run and run….

 

[Laser310]

That’s an awful idea.

in distance races people generally accept that sometimes their boat suits what nature provided, and sometimes not. This just sounds like a way to ensure that everyone is unhappy and protests about what forecast etc will run and run….

I have mixed feelings...

to be clear though - it is still standard PCS scoring, as used in ORC.., just with a unique "course" table for each boat. Nothing else is changed.

Scoring Options

ORC calls it Polar Curve Scoring, whereas ORR calls it Performance Curve Scoring.

I am pretty sure that both the choice of the model on which they optimize the boats, as well as the particular expedition settings will be non-redressable.

So, I don't expect that there will be more problems for the organizers after the race.

For a few years I raced in the Gunboat regattas in the Caribbean and the US. They used an interesting variation on PCS scoring. Typically the races were short, 2-3hr, "navigator" style races with the marks being small islands, reefs, or navaids, with a variety of TWA's.

Every boat was required to run expedition, and to immediately email their log files to the scorer. The log files were processed (this included post-calibration of the data), and an average TWA/TWS was determined for each leg of the course. This then became the course table used for PCS scoring.

I am willing to give this new scoring a try. It won't be perfect, but it might be better.

 

[flaming]

To be honest the goal of any race organiser has to be to give people the maximum fun and encourage them to return / encourage others to compete. Whilst the results may not be protestable, any hard feeling will definitely impact people wanting to do the race.

It’s often looked at as “you needed to have a new expensive boat to win” but the reverse can also be true, and imagine being the slow boat who got more downwind but still got stiffed by the boat who sailed upwind all the way.

 

[Laser310]

Even better would be to use a reanalysis produced after the race, rather than a forecast produced before the race.

But the Euro model ERA-5 preliminary reanalysis takes about 3-5 days to become available, which is too late for the awards.

 

[Norman_E]

OK, so the big boats are in Hobart, but Ollie the cat still has 200 plus miles to go. I applaud the sailors who do races like that, just to finish and have a go at a class win.