Surge prediction

[sailorman]

Right finish this cuppa and then back down the yard to make sure a certain Colvic Watson doesn't decide to float off taking everything with it, including my little girl.

One would have thought the owner, cared enough to be there personally

 

[Javelin]

the very last thing we need right now are "owners"

 

[pks1702]

Just got my 2013 Diary, the Harwich gauge topped @ just under 5.6m & the prediction was approx 4.15m. The max surge was 2.2m

Impressive diary keeping Roger :encouragement:

 

[sailorman]

Impressive diary keeping Roger :encouragement:

I must have taken a screen shot when i was on the mooring.
Once the tide started to ebb i turned in. I had been in contact with the CG since before leaving the marina, based on that i took Ralph down to the dock at around 17.00, he couldn't believe it was just after LW & the dock was already 1/2 full.
I got out @ 19.00 & found a mooring then called the GC to tell them where i was then monitored http://apps.hha.co.uk/mis/Sensors/HarwichLevel.aspx over HW,

 

[sailorman]

The surge has backed off a bit

 

[Rivers & creeks]

One would have thought the owner, cared enough to be there personally

She's on the bloody hard you twonk

the very last thing we need right now are "owners"

Too right

 

[sailorman]

She's on the bloody hard you twonk



Too right

My dear fellow how was i to know that,withdraw that comment or choose your second & weapon, Dawn by the reading room :encouragement:

 

[stuey_two]

The surge has backed off a bit

And yet it is still within a gnats whisker of the predictions!!

 

[Boz]

My dear fellow how was i to know that,withdraw that comment or choose your second & weapon, Dawn by the reading room :encouragement:

Rather large gnat then with 1.65 meter whiskers

 

[sailorman]

Rather large gnat then with 1.65 meter whiskers

Oi i didnt say that

 

[Boz]

Oi i didnt say that

I know, sorry, confused by the flurry of posts.....

 

[sailorman]

I know, sorry, confused by the flurry of posts.....

A sort of Surge then

 

[NUTMEG]

the very last thing we need right now are "owners"

 

[stuey_two]

Rather large gnat then with 1.65 meter whiskers

At 2000, tidal height at Harwich was 1.7m above prediction. At same time, the surge prediction (admittedly for Felixstowe ) from 1800 forecast was 1.8m abover prediction.
How much more accurate do you expect a prediction to be?

I may be wrong this time but not always- sorry, misquote - I may be wrong
frequently but not always and certaily not this time. Read the data before you take the p**s!

 

[pks1702]

BBC Reporting storm surge is over in Skegness without incident.

 

[sailorman]

BBC Reporting storm surge is over in Skegness without incident.

Looks like the same in Harwich too

 

[Hydrozoan]

At 2000, tidal height at Harwich was 1.7m above prediction. At same time, the surge prediction (admittedly for Felixstowe ) from 1800 forecast was 1.8m abover prediction.
How much more accurate do you expect a prediction to be?

I may be wrong this time but not always- sorry, misquote - I may be wrong sometimes but not always and certaily not this time. Read the data before you take the p**s!

RMS error of surge predictions is ca. 10cm IIRC - it's on the NTSLF site somewhere.

 

[Boz]

At 2000, tidal height at Harwich was 1.7m above prediction. At same time, the surge prediction (admittedly for Felixstowe ) from 1800 forecast was 1.8m abover prediction.
How much more accurate do you expect a prediction to be?

I may be wrong this time but not always- sorry, misquote - I may be wrong
frequently but not always and certaily not this time. Read the data before you take the p**s!

Sorry if I upset you, but I can't actually see the Felixistowe predicted numbers on that chart....... and the MIS chart for Felixstowe only shows actuals

 

[pvb]

Sorry if I upset you, but I can't actually see the Felixistowe predicted numbers on that chart....... and the MIS chart for Felixstowe only shows actuals

Here's a useful little chart showing actual vs astronomical prediction for Harwich...

Refresh to load the latest data.

 

[stuey_two]

Sorry if I upset you, but I can't actually see the Felixistowe predicted numbers on that chart....... and the MIS chart for Felixstowe only shows actuals

Apology accepted, Harwich actuals and Felixstowe predictions are both on http://www.shotleypyc.org/2017/01/13/tracking-the-surge-down-the-east-coast