Surge prediction

pvb said:
Reminds me why I moved away from Woolverstone Marina!
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And one of the reasons I would never berth there, that video is scary! It's just pontoons in the middle of a wide and busy river and yet they charge more than anywhere, I mean there's not even a lock.
 
oldvarnish said:
This kind of judgement is surely best made after the event, not before it.
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I have a friend that has a week end place here and he was worried about what was in the Media. At 5.17 yesterday evening I wrote to him saying "I am doubtful there will be any flooding". To have a flood on the East coast you need a High Spring tide, a constant strong wind from the NW, and low pressure, and we did not have the last two of these
 
The prediction at 12:30 today was 0.7m over what we had.
Essentially we just got a normal spring tide and no surge.

However at Low water today it was well above our usual mid tide level, so around 1m above where it should be.
So tonight's evident panic may well be justified.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, the predictions during the period 2012 to 2015, including the big one in 2013 were all very close. +/- 0.2m
We record the predictions and actual on the inside of our Shed 1 Door.
1016 we didn't have a flood but the warnings since November 2016 to today have all been way out compared to back in 2015 and before.

It costs us big time to lose two days work for 20+ staff for no reason.
In a way I hope there is a flood tonight because if it fails to materialise, in future the cry wolf scenario could end up being dangerous.q
 
Currently the surge at Harwich is 1.36 above predicted, and still appears to be rising so LW will be way above usual, but hopefully the surge will pass down the coast before our next HW?
 
surge at Harwich is 1.44m at the moment
Tide for 00.31 predicted @ 4.2m, so well under the high of 2013 @ 6+ m

SensorHarwichLevelLarge.png
 
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Javelin said:
Lowestoft have just reported they are at high water level, some five hours before it should be.
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That makes sense; the predicted surge now is around 1.5 to 2.0m, and today's tidal range is only 2.1m.

The predicted surge at HW is still about 1.5m, so it's going to keep rising for a while.
 
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I'm bewildered by some of the information these "agencies" are putting out. The Environment Agency's "severe flooding" warning for the Clacton/Jaywick area says the wind is forecast to be force 7. The BBC Weather forecast says the wind will be 15mph.
 
pvb said:
I'm bewildered by some of the information these "agencies" are putting out. The Environment Agency's "severe flooding" warning for the Clacton/Jaywick area says the wind is forecast to be force 7. The BBC Weather forecast says the wind will be 15mph.
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Yes, it's curious - and not a single point either, as the EA flood warning pages give 7s and 8s at various points on the southern East Coast, and with varying times of update at that.
 
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