Surge prediction

DavidofMersea said:
I don't understand this. At the moment the barometer is just under 1,000mb, and high tide tomorrow (Friday) is predicted to be 5.6m at 12.38. Unless the barometer falls a lot more, why should we have a flood? Have I missed something?
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In much of the world the surge is caused mostly by the extreme pressures
but we here on the East coast are at the mercy of strong Westerlies.
Specifically those blowing at the very north of Scotland.
These cause a surge (wave) down the East coast.

I don't understand the maths well enough to guess the size and timing of the surge so thank goodness that NTSLF is working again.
 
dennyjc said:
In much of the world the surge is caused mostly by the extreme pressures
but we here on the East coast are at the mercy of strong Westerlies.
Specifically those blowing at the very north of Scotland.
These cause a surge (wave) down the East coast.

I don't understand the maths well enough to guess the size and timing of the surge so thank goodness that NTSLF is working again.
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And if the ebb is held back due to strong Northerlies the nxt high will be well above prediction as happened 2 yrs ago
 
I've just has the recorded Environment Agency telephone warning that i am liable to be evacuated - which I doubt as i am about 3m above MHWS.

The BBC says Jawick is being evacuated

The predictions seem to be for the surge to occur around mid-tide this evening - hopefully well before HW


Update:

The council man has just come round with the leaflet. It is tomorrow's mid-day tide they are worrying about - not midnight tonight.

And the BBC website says they are evacuation Jaywick tomorrow morning,
 
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We have been scurrying around at work because of the forecast, and there is indeed a big surge tomorrow (17:00 ish Lowestoft) but not coinciding with high tide at 21:49, but the bigger unknown is tidal locking on the Broads.
The wind will go round to NNW with a deepish low over the North Sea. shouldnt be too much of a problem - unless you own a property on the North Norfolk coast. Lots of high winds tomorrow as well.

Edit, only been looking at Norfolk and Suffolk though.
 
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Habebty said:
We have been scurrying around at work because of the forecast, and there is indeed a big surge tomorrow (17:00 ish Lowestoft) but not coinciding with high tide at 21:49, but the bigger unknown is tidal locking on the Broads.
The wind will go round to NNW with a deepish low over the North Sea. shouldnt be too much of a problem - unless you own a property on the North Norfolk coast. Lots of high winds tomorrow as well.

Edit, only been looking at Norfolk and Suffolk though.
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https://www.windytv.com/?2017-01-13-21,53.173,0.044,7
 
We had water in our Shed 3 lat night. Reached a couple of inches deep at worst and about 15' inside as our floors are pitched.
Prediction was for 12" in Shed 3 and around 6" in shed 1 & 2.

What is strange is that the prediction was just a shade out at Lowestoft but 10" out at Southwold.
For the last four years Southwold has mirrored Lowestoft but two warnings in Dec last year and three warnings this year have read well under prediction.
Give the model has not changed and the gauge is correct at Lowestoft then something strange has happened between Lowestoft and Southwold effecting the flood tide.

We're expecting a bad one on Friday evening so everything in the workshops have been lifted.
We need to wash out as the water recedes as if it has any chance to dry it sets like concrete and smells to high heaven.
So Saturday will be spent hosing out the sheds and praying that Sunday will be fine.
 
Gladys said:
Your house may also be a candidate! NTSLF predicting 2.5m surge at Harwich... 3.0 at Sheerness
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3m surge exactly on time at HW at Heybridge would overtop the seawall! Our house is much higher fortunately. But most of the Heybridge Basin residents need a seawall on a normal spring tide!
 
Does anyone know how tomorrow's predicted surge compares with the the predicted and actual surges in 2013? I am particularly interested in the Orwell.......
 
Gladys said:
Your house may also be a candidate! NTSLF predicting 2.5m surge at Harwich... 3.0 at Sheerness
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But rather out of phase with the HW times. I'm not sure why there's so much concern over Friday lunchtime's high water, as the main surge seems to be predicted for later that evening.
 
pvb said:
But rather out of phase with the HW times. I'm not sure why there's so much concern over Friday lunchtime's high water, as the main surge seems to be predicted for later that evening.
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Let's hope you are right. Tiller Girl is ashore 60ft from the seawall in midst of a dozen or more yachts that will float while I don't! That's for an Flood Alert 1 That's two down from the yachts ashore and House Boats at West Mersea which is at Severe Flood Warning 1.
 
tillergirl said:
Let's hope you are right. Tiller Girl is ashore 60ft from the seawall in midst of a dozen or more yachts that will float while I don't! That's for an Flood Alert 1 That's two down from the yachts ashore and House Boats at West Mersea which is at Severe Flood Warning 1.
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Understand your concern, but the NTSLF surge prediction for Felixstowe for tomorrow's lunchtime HW is only about 0.5m, so why is everyone worried about Jaywick, etc?
 
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