Surge prediction

[MikeBz]

There was a substantial surge last night which fortunately didn't coincide with a particularly big astronomical tide.

Bigger astronomical tides coming up in the next few days. Now that the NTSLF surge predictor is broken does anyone know of any other sources of surge prediction?

 

[sailorman]

http://apps.hha.co.uk/mis/TidalPredictions/Day1.aspx

 

[Tam Lin]

If it is really bad we get a phone call from the environment agency. Unfortunately this begins with a recorded voice so you think it is another PPI sales call and may have put the phone down before it mentions the environment agency.

 

[MikeBz]

http://apps.hha.co.uk/mis/TidalPredictions/Day1.aspx

That's just the astronomical prediction which is the same as any tide table.

 

[merlin3688]

Old sea dogs down in Gary's yard reckon it will be worse then last time. BSC are putting sand bags down just in case!

 

[ballyabroad]

Closing the floodgates tonight in Skegness area. There is one prediction that made the morning tide 1.6m above prediction, though it looks as though it may now be less. Friday evening tide is also a concern.

 

[PaulJ]

Also on the NTSLF website, are we aware of....... http://www.ntslf.org/data/realtime?port=Harwich which shows the realtime (almost) state of the tide against prediction. Living somewhere liable to flooding, I find it very useful for seeing how a tide
(+ surge) is going.

 

[MikeBz]

That's very similar to this one: http://apps.hha.co.uk/mis/Sensors/HarwichLevel.aspx except that latter also works out how much surge there is/was. I don't know if they are taken from the same gauge.

 

[sailorman]

That's very similar to this one: http://apps.hha.co.uk/mis/Sensors/HarwichLevel.aspx except that latter also works out how much surge there is/was. I don't know if they are taken from the same gauge.

That was what i was trying to find
just a click away

 

[Lucky Duck]

'Fun' times a couple of years back!

http://www.ybw.com/forums/showthread.php?380397-Flood-warnings-as-well!&highlight=surge

 

[pvb]

'Fun' times a couple of years back!

http://www.ybw.com/forums/showthread.php?380397-Flood-warnings-as-well!&highlight=surge

Yes, the surges then concentrated a number of marinas' attention! Since then, Shotley has welded extensions on all the piles.

 

[dennyjc]

There was a substantial surge last night which fortunately didn't coincide with a particularly big astronomical tide.

Bigger astronomical tides coming up in the next few days. Now that the NTSLF surge predictor is broken does anyone know of any other sources of surge prediction?

I notice that the Surge Forecast site from NTSLF is now fixed . . . . Just in time to show us the next frightener.
Forecast for 13th of Jan - They are currently showing a surge of 2.4m for Felixstowe (EEk and 3.1m for Sheerness).
This coincides with low water in the Harwich area but you might want to add the surge to the tides in your area to see whether your boats are OK.
For example the earlier Tide at Lowestoft might equate to 4.1m of water at 2000 - that's a lot for Lowestoft.

 

[pvb]

And the police are about to start evacuating Jaywick - http://www.eadt.co.uk/news/jaywick_...threaten_to_create_coastal_flooding_1_4846861

 

[pvb]

Forecast for 13th of Jan - They are currently showing a surge of 2.4m for Felixstowe (EEk and 3.1m for Sheerness).
This coincides with low water in the Harwich area

But it looks like there might be 5m or so around 10pm on the 13th. That would be well over the lock gates at Shotley.

 

[Lucky Duck]

Yes, the surges then concentrated a number of marinas' attention! Since then, Shotley has welded extensions on all the piles.

The marina I was berthed at back in 2013 decided against doing so, will see if that comes back to haunt them.

 

[DavidofMersea]

I don't understand this. At the moment the barometer is just under 1,000mb, and high tide tomorrow (Friday) is predicted to be 5.6m at 12.38. Unless the barometer falls a lot more, why should we have a flood? Have I missed something?

 

[MikeBz]

And the police are about to start evacuating Jaywick - http://www.eadt.co.uk/news/jaywick_...threaten_to_create_coastal_flooding_1_4846861

Weird, the predicted surge for tonight is much less than last night. A lot of wind tonight but offshore so the sea state shouldn't be a factor.

 

[DavidofMersea]

Weird, the predicted surge for tonight is much less than last night. A lot of wind tonight but offshore so the sea state shouldn't be a factor.

The report I read was that Plod were telling people to day about the possible flooding tomorrow and making arrangements to evacuate tomorrow

 

[Pye_End]

I don't understand this. At the moment the barometer is just under 1,000mb, and high tide tomorrow (Friday) is predicted to be 5.6m at 12.38. Unless the barometer falls a lot more, why should we have a flood? Have I missed something?

Usually driven by low pressure dancing round the top of Scotland, dragging a water bulge with it. System then dumps the water at it goes over the land, and strong northerly gales push the bulge south.

 

[DavidofMersea]

Usually driven by low pressure dancing round the top of Scotland, dragging a water bulge with it. System then dumps the water at it goes over the land, and strong northerly gales push the bulge south.

I hope it is not too big a bulge, I live on the beach