Met Office... WRONG!!!

photodog

photodog

Lord High Commander of Upper Broughton and Gunthor
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Again!

Forecast for today was ****... rainy etc...

Woke up this AM... Sunny... S F5 or so.....


GREAT DAYS SAILING!!!
 
Its not just the met office that gets it wrong. Just returneded from South of France, both Meteo France and wind Guru have been wrong. Wind direction correct, yes Ok and its nearly always sunny, but nearly every day wind strength has been anything between 6 and 15 knts over the prediction. Last Monday (bank hol w/e) the forcast was for a gentle 12 - 14 knts, we got 27!

On Thursday last we were supposed to have a F5, at one point we had 28knts gusting 37knts

We are of course sending this post from beyond the grave as we were on a Bav 36 and as we all know they fall over in anything ove 15 knts.
 
Did you bring the keel back as a souvenier? I'm sure it doesn't need it ... very few seem to have one at all these days! ;)
 
photodog said:
Again!

Forecast for today was ****... rainy etc...

Woke up this AM... Sunny... S F5 or so.....


GREAT DAYS SAILING!!!
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Seems to me we have had a lot of days in June and July with a wide range of wind in the south - typically, nothing on sunrise and quiete a buildup by 1500 hrs, rather usual for the inter system zone between depressions (over Scotland) and HP over the continent. Hence daily forecasts covering wind speeds from 3 to 7-8.

What I find more difficult is the BBC's lack of detail on expected sea conditions, although one can infer from wind force, of course. the French meteo charts at every marina are most helpful in this regard, plus of course, the forward view for 3 days which helps in passage planning - a facility the BBC only supplies in general terms on the web site.

We need reform: there's a lot about the R4 198 shipping forecast service that is useless.
And bungin local forecasts to local radio stations is not a competitive alternative - sadly on this occasion I think the French have it, and my vote!

PWG
 
I think the more peeps complain about the Radio4 forecasts, and with good reason, the more likely it is that they will scrap them. Maybe that is what they want to do anyway.
 
I listen to it at home as a poem. On a wild night in winter it can sound fantastic, particularly on LW when you turn on a low energy light bulb.
 
NickiCrutchfield said:
I listen to it at home as a poem. On a wild night in winter it can sound fantastic, particularly on LW when you turn on a low energy light bulb.
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This is evocative of another age, when yotties all around the coasts of the UK and Channel Isles would be hunched over a crackling, whistling LW radio, in dark, dank dearly-loved wooden boats. A Tilley lamp would be guttering, half-full mugs of cocoa with sometimes something distinctly 'naughtical' added would be clutched, while pencils and notebooks would be to hand for the end of Sailing By and the first phrases of the Shipping Forecast - "And now the Shipping Forecast issued by The Met Office at 0020 GMT today..... There are warnings of gales in Sea Areas Malin, Rockall, Hebrides, Bailey, Faeroes and South East Iceland....."

Then the Coastal Station Reports...

And after, there would be the comparison of notes - "Did anyone get the bit for Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea? What was the visibility....?" and "Was there precipitation at Ronaldsway? Did you get the pressure for Tiree?"

Finally, the skipper or someone taking a ticket would attempt to draw up a Synoptic Chart from the reports, with much rubbing out of cold fronts and 'fairing' the occlusion through where it seemed the oddments of reported weather might fit. 'Twas then the guesswork would really start......

:cool:
 
I'm less sure that the Met Offices get it wrong - seems to me that it's more of an issue that people dont understand the variability of the weather and the cell size of the forecast.

For example, last Sunday in the Bristol channel the inshore waters had "south to south west 4 to 6 increasing 5 to 7. The direction was right though it fluctuated between the two where we were near Cardiff. But we had no more than 22/23 knots and it fell off to maybe 15. A pal who was at the same time coming up channel from Padstow to Cardiff had 30 knots true or more coming round Hartland.

So if you had asked me, I would have said the forecast was wrong. If you'd asked my pal he would have said it was right. Maybe it was right on the basis that it gave the worst steady conditions that could be expected.
 
jason -and the arguenauts said:
I'm less sure that the Met Offices get it wrong - seems to me that it's more of an issue that people dont understand the variability of the weather and the cell size of the forecast.
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So why not make the cell size smaller to give a more accurate forecast? It is not as if there is a problem with maximum amount of data available on the internet. The transmission lengths could be longer over the VHF, or even Naxtex presumably.
 
[Quote "And now the Shipping Forecast issued by The Met Office at 0020 GMT today..... There are warnings of gales in Sea Areas Malin, Rockall, Hebrides, Bailey, Faeroes and South East Iceland....." Quote]

Ah, the honeyed tones of Charlotte Green - worth staying up for however far inland you may be!
 
On the promise of a fair few days from The Met Office (well down south anyway) plan to head off on Thursday, well what could possibly go wrong.........................on second thoughts might just check Simon Keelings forecast first
 
Re << So why not make the cell size smaller to give a more accurate forecast? >>
Paradoxedly, *I think*, the smaller the cell size, the higher the odds that the forecast might be wrong. *I think* they keep the cell size as large as possible to average out the vagueries of air movement over the British Isles, which is less stable than (say) air movement over inland continental land mass.

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist. Someone will point out my mistakes.
 
Mostly correct. Ever smaller cell sizesw means ever more computing power required (and the Met office already has more supercomputers than the MoD), ever increasing risk of inaccuracy. It also means you start to get into the issue of local effects. And of course, just how long would you want the forecast to be?

Met forecasting really is an extremely difficult technical problem and it's made far worse in the UK because we are usually on the dividing line between two air masses and under the jetstream which brings along depression after depression. It's easy to forecast weather in places like central Spain in summer because there isnt remotely the same level of variability as there is in the UK.

Anyway I have found a partial cure - winter racing. You have to go whatever the forecast says because the alternative of letting someone else win by default is obviously completely unacceptable. :eek: So you go and its far easier to cope than you think it's going to be and you learn to relax. I guess the same applies to professional skippers like instructors.
 
jason -and the arguenauts said:
Anyway I have found a partial cure - winter sailing:eek: So you go and its far easier to cope than you think it's going to be....
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Wrong!

Wrong!

Double wrong!


( .....unless you catch a High in December, bringing a comfortable Antigua cat from Plymouth round to Bristol. Oh, the long, long gentle R/W/Blue spinnaker run the length of the North Cornish coast; being 'beat up' by successive Tornados to'ing and fro'ing from the Carmarthen air/ground gunnery ranges; catching the flood at Bull Point and carrying it all the way into Cardiff Bay ( pre-barrage ) and feeling our way through the fog into the river; and the welcome at 2:00am by the committee of the Cardiff Bay Yacht Club, having a meeting/lock-in in their old shack of a clubhouse..... "Never mind where you've come from, boy..... What'll you have?"[/B]

;)
 
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