Met Office UK forecasts - hedging their bets?

[dunedin]

For inshore sailing we used to check both the Met Office Inshore Waters and local forecasts - the latter giving more detailed view of likely weather and wind during the day.

However, recently the Met Office seemed to have changed their forecasting model, with a separate Wind Speed and Gust figures. Sounds useful - except the range is often so wide as to be totally meaningless! Last weekend we even had one occasion a forecast of Speed 2kts, gust 41kts. So Force 1, gusting equivalent to Force 9! Really informative (in fact it was about 18-25 knots)

Is this their legal department interfering with the forecasting department, terrified they might accidentally fail to predict a gust? About as much use as the fabled chocolate teapot!

So ta ta to Met Office and now using XC Weather as the base forecast, which seems to give a better perspective on things

 

[fireball]

been quite a few posts about this recently .. and mixed feelings - although someone did post about the Met Office being penalised if they fail to meet forecasting targets ... so - I'll be the new met office then shall I?
Tomorrow, there will be some wind, some sun (in parts) and rain (again in parts) ... there you go ...

 

[markleuty]

We were sat in Ramsgate on Monday morning wanting to sail to Dover.

All the forecasts I could find were saying F5-7. SWMBO wasn't happy.

XCWeather was saying F2-3 and sunny and no waves.

Eventually we went, expecting the worst. Fortunately, XCWeather was right and we had a lovely day out.

I even managed to persuade SWMBO to shake out the reef as we pottered along at 2 knots.

Mark

 

[Blue5]

For inshore sailing we used to check both the Met Office Inshore Waters and local forecasts - the latter giving more detailed view of likely weather and wind during the day.

However, recently the Met Office seemed to have changed their forecasting model, with a separate Wind Speed and Gust figures. Sounds useful - except the range is often so wide as to be totally meaningless! Last weekend we even had one occasion a forecast of Speed 2kts, gust 41kts. So Force 1, gusting equivalent to Force 9! Really informative (in fact it was about 18-25 knots)

Is this their legal department interfering with the forecasting department, terrified they might accidentally fail to predict a gust? About as much use as the fabled chocolate teapot!

So ta ta to Met Office and now using XC Weather as the base forecast, which seems to give a better perspective on things

I suspect the Met Office figure was a typo, if you still have the hard evidence do us all a favour and send it to the Met Office, they will investigate your complaint and reply with an explanation.

XC weather is OK for a quick handle on things but dont rely on it, I have found it a bit on the optimistic side

 

[kstraw]

Met Office Inshore Forecast - Fact or Fantasy

You have hit on my favourite bugbear at the moment. I cannot remember an occassion in the past 4 years when the Met Office Inshore Forecast was ever right for the Plymouth inshore area East of the Lizard. This year's Summer cruise between Plymouth and Teignmouth was marred by useless forecasts. They only managed to get the 3 days of uncomfortably high winds right in a 10 day period, but even then not the force or direction. On the way home, we and many others, hid unnecessarily in Salcombe owing to threatening forecasts of SW5-6 when it was actually S1-2 outside all day!

I feel that it is now time the Coast Guard dropped the Met Office inshore forecast for anything other than background colour. We need to know what the conditions will be for the next 30 miles, a typical day’s run. Would it be so very difficult to broadcast forecasts based on the observed conditions at the main coastal junctions in an area. For Plymouth, I would see these as being Lyme Regis, Torbay, Plymouth, Falmouth, Cornwall West of the Lizard and, finally, the Isles of Scilly. Accurate local forecasts will mean that we will not hide from the Met Office’s forecast fantasies and then be forced to make a run for it in conditions not of our choosing.

I'll get off my soap box now

Keith

 

[Phoenix of Hamble]

The forecasts at the weekend in the Thames Estuary were utterly useless....

F3 to 4, occasionally 6 to 7....

Thats a range from 7 to 33kts...... should just about cover it.....

Reality.... steady F5 and 90° different from the direction forecast

 

[snowleopard]

I fear the Met Office is losing credibility. A lot of people remember the forecast of a hot summer they came up with in the spring and are pretty disparaging about them. Nobody makes plans based on a long-range forecast but they still blame the Met Office for our lousy 'summer'.

 

[Phoenix of Hamble]

I don't blame them for our lousy summer....

I just blame them for not being able to tell what the weather is going to do tomorrow, let alone 3 months into the future....

I have a plan to enable them to get their short range forecast much more accurate. I am going to encourage them to look out of their windows.

 

[Cantata]

I share everyone's frustration with the inaccuracy and lack of detail in the inshore waters forecasts the last couple of years. I have much experience of the Gibraltar Point to N.Foreland, and limited experience of N.Foreland to Selsey Bill. The usual experience is that the weather at the time of broadcast is much quieter than they say, the wind strengths seem usually exaggerated, sometimes by a great deal, the sea areas concerned are too large and the detail is too small.
I am wondering what we can get done about this. Some kind of campaign perhaps to get the content of the Inshore Waters forecasts changed to include more detail e.g timings of changes in weather, percentage likelihood of features actually happening, specification of parts of areas e.g. north, south etc, and so on.
I'm willing to have a bash at this but not sure right now where to start...I believe the MCA 'commission' the Inshore waters forecast from the Met Office, but I also guess the RYA has something to do with the arrangement as well.
Any constructive suggestions welcome!

 

[Boathook]

I don't blame them for our lousy summer....

I just blame them for not being able to tell what the weather is going to do tomorrow, let alone 3 months into the future....

I have a plan to enable them to get their short range forecast much more accurate. I am going to encourage them to look out of their windows.

On Monday's inshore they forecast SW going SE and back to SW 4/5. That seemed correct. But the weather they gave was rain, drizzle and showers. TV forecast gave 3/4 winds and sun once clouds burnt off.

I do want to buy a new dual channel navtex to get the inshore forecasts but after this weekend is it worth it ?

 

[jhr]

I share everyone's frustration with the inaccuracy and lack of detail in the inshore waters forecasts the last couple of years. I have much experience of the Gibraltar Point to N.Foreland, and limited experience of N.Foreland to Selsey Bill. The usual experience is that the weather at the time of broadcast is much quieter than they say, the wind strengths seem usually exaggerated, sometimes by a great deal, the sea areas concerned are too large and the detail is too small.

There was a bit of discussion about this a few days ago, as a side issue on a thread on Mobochat - I was a little hesitant about going out in my 22 ft boat with an Inshore Waters f/c of 6-7 and sea state moderate or rough. One point that I made in mitigation was that the Met Office are trying to cover quite a wide area with the Inshore Waters f/c, including sheltered areas and headlands, and the numbers quoted, being cautious, are probably the worst conditions expected to be experienced . I'm not particularly making excuses for the Met Office - they have loads of equipment and lots of experienced forecasters - but the UK climate is notoriously fickle and unpredictable and forecasting is a bit more of an art than those parts of the world where the f/c is normally "Light breezes and sunshine. Outlook: more of the same".

Incidentally, the 6-7 referred to above turned out to be 2-3 and pretty much flat, to start with, although I think it got up to about a 5 and slight later on, by which time I was back on my mooring.

 

[Cantata]

........ One point that I made in mitigation was that the Met Office are trying to cover quite a wide area with the Inshore Waters f/c, including sheltered areas and headlands, and the numbers quoted, being cautious, are probably the worst conditions expected to be experienced . ..........

OK, let's bring pressure to get the areas made smaller, and percentage values given to the likelihood of forecast conditions being actually experienced. Exactly two of the points I was making.

 

[NPMR]

Is there a 'user's group' such as the rail peole have or hospitals. Some kind of lobbying body - because if there isn't, there should be!

 

[Blue5]

The forecasts at the weekend in the Thames Estuary were utterly useless....

F3 to 4, occasionally 6 to 7....

Thats a range from 7 to 33kts...... should just about cover it.....

F3 to 4, occasionally 6 to 7 could actually represent 16 to 22kts if we take it at either end of the quoted range, point is really this is the downside of beaufort scale and a large coverage area.

Not trying to defend poor forecasts just pointing out another possible interpretation of that forecast ie top end of a 4 and bottom of a 6

 

[Beadle]

I fear the Met Office is losing credibility. A lot of people remember the forecast of a hot summer they came up with in the spring and are pretty disparaging about them. Nobody makes plans based on a long-range forecast but they still blame the Met Office for our lousy 'summer'.

Yes

Quite right

To make it worse they had some chap on the wireless trying to argue that they had really got it right - if you look at this number compared to that number subtract a daffodil and take away the number you first thought of - Total nonsense - they got it wrong and if you get it wrong the worst thing to do is try to pretend you didn't - all credibility lost.

Looked today at inshore forecast wind strengths from 3 - 8 and directions from south to north - how can you plan with information like that - totally useless.

 

[JonJon]

Yup its not been the same since old Mcgaskill left. Do you think they have the trainees on during the summer hols?

 

[Blue5]

Yes


Looked today at inshore forecast wind strengths from 3 - 8 and directions from south to north - how can you plan with information like that - totally useless.

To be fair in needs to be read in conjunction with the general forecast, theres a bit more going on than just a change in wind direction, look at a pressure chart and the forecast might make sense.

Assuming you were reading from Berwick on Tweed to Whitby forecast

 

[Pye_End]

I do want to buy a new dual channel navtex to get the inshore forecasts but after this weekend is it worth it ?

From what I have seen the forecasts aren't any better on Navtex.

Since there are so many mediums around for broadcast, why can't one of them take the bull by the horns and stop broadcasting what is a very general forecast. If Navtex broadcast something decent I would buy a set. Perhaps it should be subbed out to the French - their forecasts seem to be more accurate and more localised. Would certainly save some money - getting rid of the met office!

XCweather this year seems to have been a bit on the low side whenever I have been out. Presume they give out average wind speed, and when the graph shows spikes from 10 to 30 kn, knowing it is 20kn wind is of little help - ideally both average wind speed and peak wind speed is needed. XCweather however is significantly better when it comes to the duration of strong winds - eg when a front comes through. Knowing you have 20min of F6 and it will moderate to a lovely F4 gives few concerns, but if you look at a met office forecast that indicates that for the next 6 hours it could be F6 for the whole time, or not, leaves you none the wiser, and possibly erring on the side of caution and not leaving the safety of port.

Dick - surely the RYA should be the body to push for an improvement in access to weather forecasts at sea, but maybe this forum could come up with some practical suggestions as to what could be done (modelling inaccuracies aside). Perhaps Simon could have something to say on the matter? The first subject for me is looking for the right mediums available to yachtsmen - eg VHF; LW; Navtex - and not making the assumption that all at sea have access to a computer and broadband!

 

[photodog]

maybe this forum could come up with some practical suggestions as to what could be done

The Weathers been **** so.... lets shoot the messenger.

 

[Pye_End]

maybe this forum could come up with some practical suggestions as to what could be done

The Weathers been **** so.... lets shoot the messenger.

August has been far better than last year - ok July wasn't great, but I reckon that weather overall this summer was slightly better than average (at least in the SE). I don't have the same view of the forecasting, or the way that it is presented/available particularly when on board. So no, my comments are about the information not the weather.