ColinS
Well-Known Member
Forty two. /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif
Mathematical probability of collision with a ship?
- Thread starter BlueSkyNick
- Start date
LittleSister
Well-Known Member
I vaguely remember reading about an American yacht skipper (yachting writer or designer, perhaps?) who carefully calculated the chances of collision with a ship when on passage up the (west, i think it was) coast of the USA, bearing in mind the number/size of shipping movements, etc.
He concluded that the chances of collision were negligible (they obviously don't have the volume/concentration of shipping found in the English Channel), and that for practical purposes there was there was therefore negligible risk attached to sleeping when on passage single handed in these waters.
He was run down by a ship some years later (can't remember if he was asleep at the time), and survived to change his views on watch-keeping and the value of mathematics in risk assessment.
He concluded that the chances of collision were negligible (they obviously don't have the volume/concentration of shipping found in the English Channel), and that for practical purposes there was there was therefore negligible risk attached to sleeping when on passage single handed in these waters.
He was run down by a ship some years later (can't remember if he was asleep at the time), and survived to change his views on watch-keeping and the value of mathematics in risk assessment.
binch
Well-Known Member
Many years ago I was faced with designing a search pattern that would maximise the probability of collision. (In fact getting an A/S frigate to pass directly over a submerged submarine). This took a long timee and involved 5 simultaneous differential equations as there are effectively five dimensions. The answer, when I got it, was too complicated to be of any use.
Though a mathematician, I have come to the conclusion that (apart from spherical trigonometry) maths and navigation are completely incompatible and I wish the R.I.N. would stop publishing improbable and impractical papers from obscure Japanese universities that claim to have solved the problem for all time if only the helmsman's dog is not hungry.
Once one gets a wet backside, all computational skills evaporate.
Though a mathematician, I have come to the conclusion that (apart from spherical trigonometry) maths and navigation are completely incompatible and I wish the R.I.N. would stop publishing improbable and impractical papers from obscure Japanese universities that claim to have solved the problem for all time if only the helmsman's dog is not hungry.
Once one gets a wet backside, all computational skills evaporate.
saltwater_gypsy
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- 13 Jan 2008
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What REALLY happened in the Hugo Boss/ Fishing boat collision????
What are the odds on that happening?
What are the odds on that happening?
Danny Jo
Well-Known Member
[ QUOTE ]
Though a mathematician, I have come to the conclusion that (apart from spherical trigonometry) maths and navigation are completely incompatible
[/ QUOTE ] Alas! Certain brainy scuttlebutt denizens aside, even spherical geometry is for many of us but a distant dream.
Though a mathematician, I have come to the conclusion that (apart from spherical trigonometry) maths and navigation are completely incompatible
[/ QUOTE ] Alas! Certain brainy scuttlebutt denizens aside, even spherical geometry is for many of us but a distant dream.
AntarcticPilot
Well-Known Member
[ QUOTE ]
Alas! Certain brainy scuttlebutt denizens aside, even spherical geometry is for many of us but a distant dream.
[/ QUOTE ]
Not much brains required; the whole of spherical trigonometry boils down to two mathematical relationships : the Sine rule and the Cosine rule. That and a knowledge of trigonometric identities is all you NEED; if a solution can be found then these two relationships suffice to find it. But it looks more complex than it really is because the fundamental relationships tend to be dressed up in more complex forms to allow simpler computation and more reliable results in certain difficult cases.
Alas! Certain brainy scuttlebutt denizens aside, even spherical geometry is for many of us but a distant dream.
[/ QUOTE ]
Not much brains required; the whole of spherical trigonometry boils down to two mathematical relationships : the Sine rule and the Cosine rule. That and a knowledge of trigonometric identities is all you NEED; if a solution can be found then these two relationships suffice to find it. But it looks more complex than it really is because the fundamental relationships tend to be dressed up in more complex forms to allow simpler computation and more reliable results in certain difficult cases.
BlueSkyNick
Well-Known Member
Thanks for that - consider yourself appointed as a brainy scuttlebutt denizen ! /forums/images/graemlins/smile.gif
Krusty
Well-Known Member
The probability of a collision is neally not the problem, is it ?
If it can happen, it will; Sometime! and theory says nothing about When it will happen.
So my yacht collision is exactly like the next asteroid collision; it could be a million years from now, or next year, and it is down to my watchkeeping to make sure it is not next year.
If it can happen, it will; Sometime! and theory says nothing about When it will happen.
So my yacht collision is exactly like the next asteroid collision; it could be a million years from now, or next year, and it is down to my watchkeeping to make sure it is not next year.