Market flooded with cheap boats because of the coranvirus

[oldmanofthehills]

As another of viking DNA a ship burial sure attracts. If i dont make it my dear wife will have enough to deal with without selling two boats on a flooded market so sending the lesser one out to sea all sails set and timer on the fuel tanks seems good. Trouble is the CG are likely to take a dim view of this and hard to do it discretely in the upper bristol channel.

Just have to have my ashes scattered in BC to mix with my dads and a billion tons of mud and let the surplus boat moulder on moorings until buyer turns up or fibreglass decays to dust, which ever is the quicker

 

[ridgy]

This is all a bit melodramatic. Say the 20,000 deaths does come to pass. What percentage own a boat, say 0.1 that's 20 boats on the market. There are currently nearly 5000 for sale on Apollo duck already.

That's without considering that the death burden is more likely on the lower classes with existing self inflicted health issues.

The death toll would have to be a large multiple of that 20k to affect the market in the way described.

 

[oldmanofthehills]

This is all a bit melodramatic. Say the 20,000 deaths does come to pass. What percentage own a boat, say 0.1 that's 20 boats on the market. There are currently nearly 5000 for sale on Apollo duck already.

That's without considering that the death burden is more likely on the lower classes with existing self inflicted health issues. The death toll would have to be a large multiple of that 20k to affect the market in the way described.

I think we would be very lucky to only have 20k death. Mortality of detected cases is worsening and about 1 in 14 and it is thought that maybe 96% of us might get it before herd immunity works, and we dont know the ratio of detected to undetected yet - maybe 10%. So death toll of 500k or worse not unlikely. Testing will help medics stay on job but wont help reduce spread unless even more isolation is imposed. Up to 50% of those on ventilators die right now and finding a cure for viral infections very very difficult - it took years with HIV

What is more us boaters are in mostly in the vulnerable age group so can expect higher mortality - sorry to remind folks they are mortal but there it is.

It wouldnt take more than 5% of boats being disposed of by the bereaved to depress the market

 

[sailaboutvic]

I think we would be very lucky to only have 20k death. Mortality of detected cases is worsening and about 1 in 14 and it is thought that maybe 96% of us might get it before herd immunity works, and we dont know the ratio of detected to undetected yet - maybe 10%. So death toll of 500k or worse not unlikely. Testing will help medics stay on job but wont help reduce spread unless even more isolation is imposed. Up to 50% of those on ventilators die right now and finding a cure for viral infections very very difficult - it took years with HIV

What is more us boaters are in mostly in the vulnerable age group so can expect higher mortality - sorry to remind folks they are mortal but there it is.

It wouldnt take more than 5% of boats being disposed of by the bereaved to depress the market

Your cheerful chap , ok now where did I put that gun .

 

[FlyingGoose]

I think we would be very lucky to only have 20k death. Mortality of detected cases is worsening and about 1 in 14 and it is thought that maybe 96% of us might get it before herd immunity works, and we dont know the ratio of detected to undetected yet - maybe 10%. So death toll of 500k or worse not unlikely. Testing will help medics stay on job but wont help reduce spread unless even more isolation is imposed. Up to 50% of those on ventilators die right now and finding a cure for viral infections very very difficult - it took years with HIV

What is more us boaters are in mostly in the vulnerable age group so can expect higher mortality - sorry to remind folks they are mortal but there it is.

It wouldnt take more than 5% of boats being disposed of by the bereaved to depress the market

Sorry to hear these figures, but it is impossible to work out a death rate against unknown and known infected cases , we are talking about large numbers of infected people that have had it , going to get it and not one will need medical attention so they do not go on the figures . with the best estimates we are getting figures of 20000 from the models being used, it might be higher , lower but I would not expect figures in the hundreds of thousands

Also this is a corona virus , like influenza is a corona virus , what makes then different is their genetic RNA , they already have a head start in understanding other corona viruses , the time lag is the medical testing. they need to have controlled medical experiments with humans over a certain amount of time to allow the vaccine to be released , not point giving out a vaccine that kills the virus but does some other damage like Thalidomide

 

[Poignard]

No body seems to want my Victoria Frances 26 despite Apolloduck doing an excellent marketing job - 26' apparently is small these days, and singlehanded !! - perish the thought.

That is a great shame.

 

[oldmanofthehills]

Also this is a corona virus , like influenza is a corona virus , what makes then different is their genetic RNA , they already have a head start in understanding other corona viruses , ------

Flu is not a the same family as Covid19. The common cold is, hence the higher infectivity. They havent cured the common cold and they might never cure Covid 19. The only blessing seems that it doesnt mutate as fast as flu type germs and isnt quite as deadly as the similar SARS and MERS

 

[FlyingGoose]

Flu is not a the same family as Covid19. The common cold is, hence the higher infectivity. They havent cured the common cold and they might never cure Covid 19. The only blessing seems that it doesnt mutate as fast as flu type germs and isnt quite as deadly as the similar SARS and MERS

I do not want to get into a argument about classification , but a corona virus is an umbrella name for influenza, H1NI, H3NI etc they fall under a higher order than family and then when we get to family in the classification we can say they are not in the same family , but they are all corona viruses , sorry I do not want to argue I am a biologist retired , we understand the corona viruses but this particular corona virus has never been seen ,we need to find their weakness in their cell and RNA to find the right drug that attacks this particular strain
A simple classification table ,
Biology for Kids: Scientific Classification

 

[dimdav]

we need to find their weakness in their cell and RNA to find the right drug that attacks this particular strain

I dove into some microbiological online exchanges. Man are there some seriously brainy folk from all over working on this. I confess I didnt understand it all or even half but what these guys are doing in extracting the virus from already infected cells to examine the particular areas of the cell it attacks so they can use that information to "defend" the cell is pretty mind blowing stuff. And yes they had to give me that laymans synopsis.

 

[oldharry]

For once I agree with FG. The only mortality ratio they can calculate is against KNOWN cases. How many thousands are in unreported self isolation? Nobody knows. Do they have the virus? Nobody knows. In its mildest form some lucky people will not even recognise it, unless they happen to be tested. A friend in Brighton reports that a Social club he helps run, people were disappearing in to self isolation by the hundred, before the press reported the first known case. If say 1 in 5 of those actually had the virus, thats best part of 100 cases while the press are reporting single figures.

But thats anecdotal evidence, and can not be used in official figures, any more than it can be used in a court, but it means that official figures show a massive distortion, making calculated mortality rates meaningless. All we KNOW is that of those who sought medical assistance a certain percentage died. That is meaningless against the actual overall figure

Bottom line is though from accounts of people who have had it badly, it is extremely unpleasant if it does go to stage 2, even if you do not need medical support with your breathing.

 

[oldmanofthehills]

I do not want to get into a argument about classification , but a corona virus is an umbrella name for influenza, H1NI, H3NI etc they fall under a higher order than family and then when we get to family in the classification we can say they are not in the same family , but they are all corona viruses , sorry I do not want to argue I am a biologist retired , we understand the corona viruses but this particular corona virus has never been seen ,we need to find their weakness in their cell and RNA to find the right drug that attacks this particular strain
A simple classification table ,
Biology for Kids: Scientific Classification

As the husband of a geneticist and whose stepson is pharma researcher on cancer cell vulnerability I enjoy discussions on classification, mechanism etc. However the point remains that we have never beaten the common cold and only managed with HIV after considerable time and with fairly expensive drugs. We havent got that time before it sweeps through our population and cant be complacent that we will be in the 5 to 25% who dont get it. Isolation seems our only hope right now and we cant keep tht up forever

 

[dom]

...I am a biologist retired , we understand the corona viruses but this particular corona virus has never been seen ,we need to find their weakness in their cell and RNA to find the right drug that attacks this particular strain

Have you still access to scientific papers? If so FYI download, " A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence", Vineet Menachery et al., 2015, Nature America. If not, pm me with a proper email address and I'll fwd you the pdf

For those interested, this 2015 paper opened:

“The emergence of SARS-CoV heralded a new era in the cross-species transmission of severe respiratory illness with globalization leading to rapid spread around the world and massive economic impact”​

It concluded inter alia:

“Our work suggests a potential risk of SARS-CoV re-emergence from viruses currently circulating in bat populations……..”​

​

“Overall, our approach has used metagenomics data to identify a potential threat posed by the circulating bat SARS-like CoV SHC014. Because of the ability of chimeric SHC014 viruses to replicate in human airway cultures, cause pathogenesis in vivo and escape current therapeutics, there is a need for both surveillance and improved therapeutics against circulating SARS-like viruses. Our approach also unlocks the use of metagenomics data to predict viral emergence and to apply this knowledge in preparing to treat future emerging virus infections.”​

 

[Star-Lord]

I am thinking quite a few boats will be put up for sale if we end up in a depression like 1920's and all the indicators are pointing to that very scenario.
If I was in the UK and my boat was abroad there is no way I would get on a plane to visit it till a vaccine / better treatments are available. Neither would I drive a car on a ferry - unless you can stay in the car!

 

[FlyingGoose]

Corona viruses have been studied for years this is a very complex virus hence the time to get antivirals and human saftey checks

Nidoviruses rank among the most complex RNA viruses and their molecular genetics clearly discriminates them from other RNA virus groups. Still, our knowledge about their molecular biology, mostly derived from studies of coronaviruses, is very limited (Lai and Cavanagh, 1997, Lai and Holmes, 2001, Siddell et al., 2005, Ziebuhr, 2004)

Nidovirus genomes have been studied for ∼20 years, most extensively during the last several years. By today, more than a hundred full-length and over a thousand partial nidovirus genome sequences have been published. Four profoundly separated and unevenly populated genetic clusters have been recognized: corona-, toro-, roni- and arteriviruses. The exact relationship between these clusters is yet to be rigorously resolved (González et al., 2003)

The overwhelming majority of the available nidovirus genome sequences have been reported for corona- and arteriviruses, which were the first to be fully sequenced and analyzed (Boursnell et al., 1987, den Boon et al., 1991a). Comparative sequence analysis and other studies of viruses from each of these families revealed three major groups in coronaviruses, called groups 1, 2 and 3, and four comparably distant genetic clusters in arteriviruses (González et al., 2003, Gorbalenya et al., 2004, Snijder et al., 2005a, Spaan et al., 2005a)

Nidoviruses have linear, single-stranded RNA genomes of positive polarity that contain a 5′ cap structure and a 3′ poly (A) tail. The genomes of nidoviruses include untranslated regions (UTR) at their 5′ and 3′ genome termini. These flank an array of multiple genes whose number may vary in and between the families of the nidovirus order

The comparison of the large corona-, toro- and roniviruses with their much smaller Arteriviridae cousins provides an intellectual framework for rationalizing the genome expansion in the Nidovirale

In this context, it will be essential to continue the sampling of the natural diversity of nidoviruses, also to see whether the genome size gap between the small and large nidoviruses will be filled with viruses with intermediate-size genomes, and whether nidoviruses infecting other phyla, e.g., plants and insects, can be identified. Ultimately, we may hope to learn whether the large nidoviruses (particularly, coronaviruses) have reached the theoretical genome size limit that may have been set for RNA viruses by nature
Nidovirales: Evolving the largest RNA virus genome

added ----sorry for the long post I Can feel my meds wearing off its like drinking 20 redbulls , I mean no offence or rub it in with this post I just get on one and tunnel vision .

 

[JumbleDuck]

No body seems to want my Victoria Frances 26 despite Apolloduck doing an excellent marketing job - 26' apparently is small these days, and singlehanded !! - perish the thought.

Blimey, that's a bargain. By the way, it's a Frances 26, sold by Victoria Yachts.

 

[Frogmogman]

I thought this article was rather good - in particular the explanation of the difference between case fatality rate and infection fatality rate seems germane to some of the discussion on this thread, but TBH I'm not sure if overall the article doesn't raise as many questions as it answers.

Coronavirus: Why death and mortality rates differ

 

[Quandary]

I got talked in to doing a burial at sea once, the boat that was to do it did not like the increasing strength of the wind, and the service was already going on in the Clubhouse. We went out with the deceased partner and a few others in our Sigma 38 with her casket of ashes, the clubhouse ceremony was relayed through the speaker in the cockpit and I was encouraged to come closer in so they could see, I thought they were not really taking account of the wind strength and direction. So I headed toward the rock armour, watching the depth, it was strong onshore so I told the woman to open the casket as I completed the turn away into the wind, she went for it a bit late and my face and the hood of my Henri Lloyd caught most of the deceased but I felt it would not have been right to upset her more by compaining.

 

[LBRodders]

Falling boat prices will have nothing to do with the amount of dead, but the economic impact on the living.

We are still in the 'honeymoon' period - that is the period where on average - people still have just enough money to put food on the table and are enjoying not being at work/posting excessive 5hite/songs on social media.

Give it a couple of weeks and the same people who were crying for a lock down, will be crying for freedom.

Its not going to be pretty.

 

[Wansworth]

Did a scattering of ashes of a shipowner from one of his fleet at the last moment the skipper Went off the bridge to be with assembled crew and widow on the main deck meanwhile with my sailors feelin for the wind eased the ship to port so the ashes didn’t blow back through the scuppers.

 

[oldmanofthehills]

I scattered my late fathers ashes in the evening from the foreshore at Lady Bay near Clevedon, accompanied only by my teenage son as the family had prevaricated and wombled around. It was a rainy and windy night and even at high tide our shoes got muddy. Then the wind blew ash back in our face. We then drove to the old pub where he had lived all those years ago and found it closed. By now starving we got fish and chips on the way home but found some of them inexplicably dusty and crunchy.