LIBS, will they sell much ??

If the man buying his first 2nd hand boat is put off, that will work it's way up the line and make it all the harder for a potential new boat purchaser to sell his current boat.
 
its not a coupla hundred quid

and I promise you - you are wrong, not really truth is you don't know, nor do I, anyway what's your name and what boat have you got, time you came out of the closet
 
1165 posts and a wrong statement that a couple of hundred quid wont make a difference, do you even own a boat, if so fill in your profile and then maybe your opinion might get taken seriously.
 
Yep, I think that mobo prices will fall, but probably on older second hand boats that are owned by people who go boating on a tight budget. Newer mobo owners are likely to hold on and put up with the cost of fuel perhaps because they have more money? imho of course!

Barry
 
A rethink it certainly has been,

Was hopefully going to trade up in next 6 months to twin diesel 28ft, but this has suddenly hit the back burner.

Fuel cost was my first concern,currently running a single petrol my fuel cost is approx £500 PA.
Twin diesel approx same annual cost before derogation, but this has now changed, although fuel cost won't double not sure if I could justify the additional outlay for a boat with diesel, petrol version of same boat is atleast 15K cheaper.

I will sit back & wait to see how values change, I know the question of availability & of course safety will factor in a percieved value but will it still be as much?

I supose this illustrates that Medskipper is right, it's middle income boaters that will be re-evaluating how much we can really afford to spend, fuel cost is make or break & if looking to trade up then why pay an extra premium for diesel.

Unless something takes the place of red diesel, ie biofuels, then the second hand double diesel boats will need to be extra special in order to carry the heafty price difference.
 
As I think Gludy said previously, it all happens at the margins, it isn't simple and dynamics have an effect.

I was thinking of a change from sail to power this winter. I have shelved that plan. Can I afford diesel at £4.50 a gallon and 0.75mpg? Yes, if I wanted to pay it. The question at the margin is do I want to pay it? The answer at the moment is no. I could but I won't.

Am I still interested in power? Yes, but again, at the margin, am I interested right now? Again, answer no, not now. I will wait and see what happens in the market.

So I become a statistic. I am part of a "falling demand for motor boats".

If there are enough of us, that statistic becomes hard to ignore. So people get nervous, and simply wait a bit. Waiting a bit amplifies the drop in demand, and it becomes self-fullfilling. "Wasn't I smart to wait, 'cos prices did fall" I say in the pub. Fact is prices fell becasue I waited (along with lots of others).

But what if there is a latent demand for reasonably modern boats if prices were just a bit lower? Then those people do the maths and decide fuel is a small part of the equation, and they jump in at some point, and demand firms up. The papers report "Price collapse was hype, demand firm".

I've missed out the dynamics of manufacturers "supporting" prices with hidden discounts, changes in the general economy, interest rates, house equity going up or down etc etc.

All in all, I have no idea what will happen, but I'll stick my neck out. Short-term 2nd hand mobo prices ain't going up.
 
Lets assume that second hand motor boat prices suffer a step decrease in the UK.

Med boaters have been using tax paid diesel for ages, and the prices of motor boats there won't have changed. So, surely thing to do in the situation where you have a reasonable sized boat in the UK to sell would be to install aircon and truck it down to the med, as it's a single market.

Also, med boaters wanting a cheap boat will surely source their boats from the UK, more work for the aircon installers, thus driving up demand, and errm, increasing prices back up again....

It could be a business opportunity for boat transporters and air conditioning installers. OR, as it is a single market, prices might not change much at all, especially if the increase is not to full-whack road fuel duty rates, but what you can guarantee in economics, is that it is very difficult to predict all the knock-on consequences of one change.

dv.
 
Could be a good year for raggie sales?? An ill wind and all that if you are a raggie sales person.

Then in the corner set up with a tiny tressel table and sunday school chair is Mr DS flogging gas conversions. Would the mobo community welcome him or stone him? /forums/images/graemlins/laugh.gif
 
dvine;;
IMHO you are right. The bigger boats more modern will head for the Med to sell. We already have a low percentage of these boats, it will now be even lower. With that export they take all their spending and use a lot more aviation fuel which is low tax.

I have no doubt whatseover that even the 20p per litre hike is going to cause a high degree of damage the UK power boat market. If it went to road fuel prices it would kill it.

I know people with small modern power boats that they just pop around the coast on who are starting to question having the boat.

The cruising market will be very badly hit.

I find it staggering that the government, even now are keeping us in the dark on this.
 
marginal being the proverbial straw? Well, I think as has also been said, actually seeing the bill at the pump is going to make people unpleasantly aware of the cost of every trip. 2007 will see alot of people wondering if its really worth the cost.
 
Well, in a way yes I suppose I am, for instance I already have a four year old F43 and "in my mind" as I have no tangible proof yet, the market price has just dropped considerably. Why?? She has 2 x TAMD 74's, pre economic models and thus will be perceived as "costly to run, now derogations gone!" Due to this "apparent" fall in the assett value I "think" that to replace her is now beyond my "reasonable means" so I won't be ordering any new boat just now. Thats just me and I am not unique in anyway, but also as I eluded earlier, I am also reluctant to purchase new bits and toys for her as I probably won't reap any benefit from them. Firstly as I probably won't be travelling as far next year so the old instruments will more than suffice and secondly new kit won't improve the vastly "alleged" depreciated assett anyway.

Interestingly also, as many around here know, Damn carries nearly as much "kit" as Happy used to, more in the way of toys perhaps, but with our probable lack of cruising next year a lot of these are surplus to requirements so will very soon be avaialble on ebay, motorboats & outboards etc, thereby depressing new product sales in some small way, I imagine. Again I am no doubt not the only person thinking this way? For example: My lads race Honda 150's so we have the use of a "skli boat" locally should ever the fancy take us, so if Jules & I are to be more "locally based" what do I need a Jet Rib Tender for, which formerly we would use for skiing etc when away from the solent? I'll simply revert to carrying my little 2mtr tender and 2hp outboard and sell the zodiac, hence one more reasonably priced, well looked after previously npt available to the market Zodiac is on that very market, which I imagine has got to affect someones sales of new Zodiacs somewhere?

Therefore I can well imagine as per my original post that LIBS is going to be an interesting show Sales wise, apart from as said above, for sail boat sales perhaps??
P
 
I disagree, you can't compare capital spend with actual cash expenditure, many people can afford to buy a boat but are marginal to actualy run it. I'm sure many on here own a house worth several hundreds of thousands, but if their council tax, gas or electric bill went up by £1000 they would sure as hell feel it.
 
I very much agree with that Chris.

My boat for example takes 700 gallons and a fill up at full road tax price would cost £3,500. Two years ago I was paying £1.15p per gallon so the cost was £805 That sort of price escalation is not small by any standards and it makes you question each trip.

Even at say 90p per gallon hike over todays fuel price I would be paying £2.88 per gallon making a full up £2016 and that curtails any use.

So Per fill up prices:-
Two years ago £805
Today £1386
Europena minimal tax level £2016
If full road duty is applied £3,500

Yet when specifying the boat I was quite happy to add £100k in extras!!!

Its not logical but I know but I am not the only one who thinks about it this way.

I will aim to go most places at about 9 knots and get say 2 mpg. In my last planing boat I was getting 0.56 mpg so I get 4 times the mileage at about 1/3 of the speed.
I also enjoy the more tranquil sailing (this is a bit theoretical because I have not has much practice as yet).

However if I have to kick the boat up to over 20 knots to get somehwere fast my consumption shoots upo to 0.33 mpg - at that rate with full road prices the cost is about £15 per mile, so a return trip to say Padstow (160 miles) costs £2400. That is absurd.

The new72 foot Marlow I am looking at travels at 10 knots displacment speed giving about 4.5 mpg on its centre small engine. That is one hell of a great consumption for such a long boat with an almost 20 foot beam. I would intend to spend most of the time with that boat outisde UK waters.
 
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