Italian weather forecast

[kingsebi]

I have not seen this mentioned so I'm happy to be able to finally contribute something to these great forums that helped me so much.

Meteomar | MeteoAM.it - Servizio Meteorologico Aeronautica Militare

I suppose these are the forecasts that they diffuse over VHF twice a day, but I think it's handy to have them written down. Comes in Italian and English. If you go to Menu you can change to "Avviso di Burrasca" (gale warnings) and "Previsioni di Dettaglio" (detailed information on wind and waves for a certain sea area), which I also found useful.

I use Passageweather and Windy (that has not been as spot on in Sicily as it has been in other places) and I will include this in my daily forecast check. I hope this helps the folks sailing in Italian waters.

 

[franksingleton]

Nothing new here, this has been on my Mediterranan Marine Forecast Texts - Franks-Weather - The Weather Window for many years. When we last sailed in the Mediterranean, the Italian service was the worst of any. See Mediterranean Marine Weather Services - Franks-Weather - The Weather Window. I do not know how valid those comments are now and would welcome any updates. These are texts from the Italian GMDSS forecasts as broadcast on VHF and NAVTEX. Because of different broadcast times and updating, texts often differed between the two systems. For example a broadcast on VHF would be followed by a NAVTEX transmission of an earlier forecast. We found Meteo France to be far betterg. I am not sure why the Italian system was so poor - except that their marine forecasts were and are still produced by their Meteo Aeronautica.

There are many objective forecasts available, see Listing of GRIB and other objective forecasts - Franks-Weather - The Weather Window, especially near the bottom of the page, the detailed model outputs.

 

[kingsebi]

Thanks alot Frank. Obviously I didn't know about your website. Great information!

 

[sailaboutvic]

For Italy weather I would use Lamma it's as good as your going to get .
Passage weather for the Med wouldn't be my choice.
Mare e Vento

 

[franksingleton]

For Italy weather I would use Lamma it's as good as your going to get .
Passage weather for the Med wouldn't be my choice.
Mare e Vento

Yes, LAMMA is on my Listing of GRIB and other objective forecasts - Franks-Weather - The Weather Window page. Like many other models not run by National Weather Services, it starts from a GFS analysis on a 25 km grid, see Previsioni meteorologiche GLOBO BOLAM MOLOCH CNR-ISAC ---- GLOBO BOLAM MOLOCH Weather Forecasts CNR-ISAC. It is not clear whether they use any more detailed data. If, as I suspect, not, then, like OpenSkiron, PredictWind and other so-called high resolution models, its output must be suspect. They should model topographically induced features well but will know nothing about small weather features such as groups of thunderstorms. Remember that models have built in smoothing and can only predict detail of about 5+ grid lengths. The big boys have access to and the ability to handle vast amounts of satellite data and, even, radar data. For that reason, I would place more reliance on detailed models, eg AROME run by the French, HARMONIE run by the Spanis or the Croatian model. Having said that, the LAMMA forecasts could well be good enough most of the time.

 

[kingsebi]

If, as I suspect, not, then, like OpenSkiron, PredictWind and other so-called high resolution models, its output must be suspect. They should model topographically induced features well but will know nothing about small weather features such as groups of thunderstorms.

That is very interesting. I saw on windy that arome and ecmwf models forecast thunderstorms, not very precise, but still useful to know when there is activity in the area... to let out a little more chain.

I imagine forecasting thunderstorms is very difficult?

Was there a model that forecasted the devastating storm in corsica in august this year?

 

[sailaboutvic]

That is very interesting. I saw on windy that arome and ecmwf models forecast thunderstorms, not very precise, but still useful to know when there is activity in the area... to let out a little more chain.

I imagine forecasting thunderstorms is very difficult?

Was there a model that forecasted the devastating storm in corsica in august this year?

Thunderstorms try this .
Real Time Lightning Map

 

[kingsebi]

Thanks, very nice. Windy got a similar feature (albeit no archive) called weather radar that gives you thunderstorm activity for the last 12/6/1 hours, also another called satellite that shows cloud cover. Some of the most impressing features of the app (I think) and very useful at times, as from their past track you can often guess where they go. Might be too late to get away on a slow sailboat, but atleast you can let out all your chain. In Sardinia I weathered a couple of thunderstorms at anchor and gusts can get quite hefty, a serious hazard, even if they don't last long. I saw a beautiful Jongert ketch washed up on the beach in the Golf of Cagliari this summer after a thunderstorm, very sad.

 

[sailaboutvic]

Link above will show you where lightening is happen and where it had happen

But more importantly is you prepare the boat for what may happen every time you anchor .

Even very experienced people who anchor most of the time can get caught out if they don't do this as we found out two years ago on a very quiet night meeting up with friends and thinking we sort thing out later as the when forecaster was for a quiet night.
Things never got sorted out after a late night of socialising

a thunderstorm appeared out of no where early hours of the morning and we had 2 x 14 mm snubber snap and I nearly lost an eye when the SS snubber hook hit me .
It's so easy to drop the hook and think all be ok .

Always make sure you set the anchor and have plenty of chain out ,
Have plenty of swinging room .
Long snubbers ,
Make sure your sails are secured.
Pull the dinghy out of the water.
If an unexpected Storm turn up you done all you can .

 

[kingsebi]

very true, that's exactly what I learned living at anchor - always be prepared, better to be cautious...

If an unexpected Storm turn up you done all you can .

 

[franksingleton]

That is very interesting. I saw on windy that arome and ecmwf models forecast thunderstorms, not very precise, but still useful to know when there is activity in the area... to let out a little more chain.

I imagine forecasting thunderstorms is very difficult?

Was there a model that forecasted the devastating storm in corsica in august this year?

Models use an instability indices to warn of the possibility of thunderstorms. CAPE is one see CAPE- A Lightning Risk Index - Franks-Weather - The Weather Window. That was probably the source of the AROME and ECMWF forecasts. They should indicate areas of risk rather than give specific locations. For short term use, see UK rainfall radar map - Met Office or a national equivalent. The most intense predictions, usually coloured red are likely to be thundery. It is instructive to watch the actual data derived from weather radar and compare with prediction. It becomes clear that individual storms are short lived and only predictable in detail a few hours ahead.

 

[franksingleton]

Link above will show you where lightening is happen and where it had happen

But more importantly is you prepare the boat for what may happen every time you anchor .

Even very experienced people who anchor most of the time can get caught out if they don't do this as we found out two years ago on a very quiet night meeting up with friends and thinking we sort thing out later as the when forecaster was for a quiet night.
Things never got sorted out after a late night of socialising

a thunderstorm appeared out of no where early hours of the morning and we had 2 x 14 mm snubber snap and I nearly lost an eye when the SS snubber hook hit me .
It's so easy to drop the hook and think all be ok .

Always make sure you set the anchor and have plenty of chain out ,
Have plenty of swinging room .
Long snubbers ,
Make sure your sails are secured.
Pull the dinghy out of the water.
If an unexpected Storm turn up you done all you can .

I would only add, fit a Lightningmadterm CAPE- A Lightning Risk Index - Franks-Weather - The Weather Window We have one and I am sure that it saved us from a strike. I cannot be sure that it would always work.

 

[kingsebi]

Models use an instability indices to warn of the possibility of thunderstorms. CAPE is one see CAPE- A Lightning Risk Index - Franks-Weather - The Weather Window. That was probably the source of the AROME and ECMWF forecasts. They should indicate areas of risk rather than give specific locations. For short term use, see UK rainfall radar map - Met Office or a national equivalent. The most intense predictions, usually coloured red are likely to be thundery. It is instructive to watch the actual data derived from weather radar and compare with prediction. It becomes clear that individual storms are short lived and only predictable in detail a few hours ahead.

Thanks again for explaining. Also a lighteningmaster seems like a sensible upgrade for a cruising sailboat.