Inflation.

[masterofnone]

Restocking shelves today. Minimum 10% increase over 6 months. 30% over2-3 years. Oils and oil products, Cleaning agents, etc. Making money by repricing and not selling products! have to check the restock price before selling old stock. Better than having cash in the bank.

 

[lustyd]

Indeed, great time to take out a loan for a new boat!

 

[Concerto]

At the Southampton Show most of the manufacturers were quoting prices for this year but you had to accept a 10% increase for delivery 2024 and a further 10% for delivery in 2025. You could avoid these increases if you paid a 40% deposit at the show.

 

[Bobc]

As oil prices rise, so do GRP prices (funnily enough), as do everything made with oil, or made using heat/energy, or which need to be shipped.

Expect boat prices to increase significantly.

I remember my dad buying his first boat in the early 70s (a Vivacity 650). He paid £1500 for it new, and sold it 2 years later for £3600. Hold tight folks.

 

[lustyd]

Oil prices are not the cause, they're going up along with everything else and the reason is that every country on earth just created unprecedented quantities of new money out of thin air. The cost of oil hasn't really risen, your money just became worth less (or worthless, depending how you look at it). As such, taking on debt is a good thing as long as what you buy is an asset, effectively placing a short bet against the currency.

 

[Bobc]

Oil prices are not the cause, they're going up along with everything else and the reason is that every country on earth just created unprecedented quantities of new money out of thin air. The cost of oil hasn't really risen, your money just became worth less (or worthless, depending how you look at it). As such, taking on debt is a good thing as long as what you buy is an asset, effectively placing a short bet against the currency.

So going up from $20 a barrel to $90 a barrel in the last year is your idea of "not going up" is it?

 

[lustyd]

So going up from $20 a barrel to $90 a barrel in the last year is your idea of "not going up" is it?

Yes, because I understand why it didn't do that. Take a look at 2014 oil prices and stop reading the tabloids!

Edit to add, I can't tell if you were joking. I really do hope you were and that I missed it.

 

[Bobc]

Yes, because I understand why it didn't do that. Take a look at 2014 oil prices and stop reading the tabloids!

Edit to add, I can't tell if you were joking. I really do hope you were and that I missed it.

How can you say that with a straight face?

Fuel at the pump is up from £1/l to £1.50/l, up 50%. Energy costs are up 50% (electricity and gas). These are the main drivers of inflation. A lot of inflation in other products are due to shipping costs (a container from China has gone from $2,300 to $11,000 (mainly due to the rise in fuel costs).

Oil and gas prices are the key drivers for the inflation that we are now seeing.

Don't believe me? Read this

 

[lustyd]

Oh not joking? If you're going to base your entire universe on a single day of April 1st 2020 where oil became unusually cheap due to literally nobody on the planet using fuel at that time then I will base mine on June 1st 2008 when oil was at $140 which even ignoring inflation was far more expensive than it is right now. Accounting for inflation that was $178 which is more than double the current $86, making oil very cheap right now in real terms.
A year ago we were in a situation where if you had storage space for oil they would pay you to take it. Don't use that time as your yardstick.

 

[Concerto]

Perhaps looking at how volatile oil prices have been since 1950 might be worth checking.

Crude Oil Prices - 70 Year Historical Chart

 

[Bobc]

But the inflation the OP is talking about isn't about 50 years, it's about today versus last week, last month, last year.

He is seeing his product prices hiking 10-30% since last time he ordered.

CPI and RPI inflation figures are calculated compared to previous month and compared to same month the previous year.

In those time-frames, oil has more than doubled in price. Shipping costs have risen by 400%. This is what's driving the inflation that we see in the shops and on the petrol forecourts. Wage inflation is only just getting going, and what we will see in the coming year, is the oil inflation subside and the effects of wage inflation take over.

 

[lustyd]

Again though, oil hasn't "more than doubled since last year" it's pretty much stable aside from the dip in price due to a total lack of demand and oil prices have had no impact on prices in the high street. The fundamental reason things cost more this year is that there are more pounds and dollars by orders of magnitude than there were before. We had to pay for all those eat out to help out meals somehow!

 

[V1701]

Surely the foregoing isn't an either/or though and isn't the real issue that nobody gives us, i.e. the people who buy all the stuff, more money to compensate?

 

[Bobc]

Surely the foregoing isn't an either/or though and isn't the real issue that nobody gives us, i.e. the people who buy all the stuff, more money to compensate?

Correct. If it was simply due to the expansion of money supply, people would have more money to pay for things, which they don't.

What we are currently seeing is mainly driven by supply and demand imbalances.

 

[lustyd]

nobody gives us, i.e. the people who buy all the stuff, more money to compensate?

We've seen unprecedented pay increases accross many sectors over the last year, so we do see that. Apart from Nurses, those heros got 1% for some reason.

 

[Bobc]

We've seen unprecedented pay increases accross many sectors over the last year, so we do see that. Apart from Nurses, those heros got 1% for some reason.

Only in sectors where there is a supply and demand imbalance, such as truck drivers. The majority of the workforce have not seen any significant salary increases yet.

 

[lustyd]

Only in sectors where there is a supply and demand imbalance, such as truck drivers. The majority of the workforce have not seen any significant salary increases yet.

You mean like warehouse workers, shelf stackers at supermarkets, civil servants, anyone on minimum wage, serving staff at restaurants that sort of thing? Even NHS workers eventually got a reasonable increase last year. Seems to me the whole country saw at least 5% over the last 12 months if not significantly more. But then, I tend to pay attention to the news around this sort of thing as I like money ?‍

 

[Stemar]

Seems to me the whole country saw at least 5% over the last 12 months

But inflation was 5%, so not such a great rise really.

 

[bedouin]

We've seen unprecedented pay increases accross many sectors over the last year, so we do see that. Apart from Nurses, those heros got 1% for some reason.

Where do you live?

Nurses in UK got a 3% pay rise plus many/most of them are on an auto-incrementing scale so in they get more than that.

Okay - let's say 4% is not overly generous given the current financial climate but not many people in the private sector have had anything like that yet we face our taxes going up to pay for it.

So most in the private sector face the same inflationary pressures as nurses, have their taxes going up to fund nurses pay rise

 

[lustyd]

But inflation was 5%, so not such a great rise really.

Indeed, but I was responding to a post suggesting that the people spending money aren't getting more to keep up with inflation. I was highlighting that actually the majority already have had inflationary rises, even when they may have thought they were getting a raise for being good at their job.

Nurses in UK got a 3% pay rise

Yes, on the second try. Initially it was 1% which caused outrage in a public who were very grateful. It's still not enough, but we live in a democracy and the majority apparently voted for this kind of society.