impossible boat market :-(

[Ink]

But that is the consequence of past economic policy decisions and past world commodity prices. The previous poster was suggesting the possible consequence of the current and future decisions which will be quite different 30% is perhaps OTT, but gone are the days of low inflation (2.5%). Challenge for governments and central banks is to control the impact of Covid and its aftermath.

Hmmm. I only saw 'solid suggestions of 30%' for next year. How the poster extrapolates current inflation of 5.5% to 30 % is beyond me and I'm sure most economic commentators.

Just pointing out that yet again there is a lot of rubbish on this forum.

Now let's get back to the impossible boat market debate, shall we?

Ink

 

[Spanjaard]

Looking for something +/- 30 ft, bilge or drop keel with sporty pretentions. Like Sadler 290 or Parker 325. Getting nowhere fast because adverts are left showing on line when boats are sold or under offer. Google produces lots of these aglomerator sites that arent up to date. Boats advertise on a Tuesday are under offer by Thursday which is no good for someone living miles away.

You would think that the heat would have gone out of the market nbow people can go abroad but that doesnt seem to be the case.

I used Boats-from.co.uk
Write the model you want in search
In Sort by click date
Then
Loook at the adverts date, if is a couple of months or more old forget about it. Recent adds copy the first 10 words of the add and paste it into google in between "quotes". Then have a look to the original add it came from.

Repeat process daily until you find what you want.

 

[Birdseye]

Look at gasoline prices at the pumps in USA. From 3$ to 4$ in the last few month. I don' know official sources based on average pump price because it varies between states and location. Chain brands, freeway, local garage etc. Governments can fudge the figures big time using selected items. It can also be fudged with QE printing money. The USA apparantly have not rurned off the printers since 2008.

Back to boats. I bought a brand new Prout Quest for £3000 from the Earls court boat show some years ago. I have seen that boat (which I sold in USA for 10,000$) is now for sale asking 26,000$. Not a bad investment considering it has been in use giving fun.

I have seen asking prices this year in Greece up at leaxt 10% and rising because the boats are being snapped up. This is end of season. Why? Because smart folk with a brain know that printing money or borrowing with bonds hax its own built in inflation albeit delayed. It wiil trickle down and quite soon. Anywzy that is the total summ of my economic knowledge. Observation and speculation so I have nothing definitive to add further.

Sold my Prout Quest in 2007 for £40,000 ! Gone down a bit since then - maybe.

I dont for a moment think that its the general public being smart. Instead lockdown split the population into large numbers of salaried middle classes doing well thank you and being forced to save because they couldnt spend. Millions of others at the bottom of the heap suffering badly.Now lockdown has lifted those middle class men are spending what they have saved on toys they want.

Everyone who contacted me about my boat was in that category added to by several sell up and sail away types.

 

[pessimist]

I used Boats-from.co.uk
Write the model you want in search
In Sort by click date
Then
Loook at the adverts date, if is a couple of months or more old forget about it. Recent adds copy the first 10 words of the add and paste it into google in between "quotes". Then have a look to the original add it came from.

Repeat process daily until you find what you want.

I think you might find this is a scam site WTF is Chinese listing? Some of the comments arefun, though

 

[Spanjaard]

I think you might find this is a scam site WTF is Chinese listing? Some of the comments arefun, though

Ha, ha, ha...

I didn't said that the site did work. Obviously no one manages the site; therefore you can find continues messages from potential buyers that nobody answers. It is somehow hilarious reading same message different people and no answers from the seller, because there are no sellers on that site.

However their listing are pretty accurate… better than google alone. I took me 3 years to find my boat. With google I could forget about it always late on their listings. However I found the relevant add on the net through Boats-from.co.uk

Now is up to you what you want to believe. That is my experience. I am just saying that site can be a useful tool for searching.

In regards of the “chinese” or the "not specified" on their listings, I haven’t got a clue.

 

[DoubleEnder]

inflation, yes it is here. And there is some sense in the idea that you should spend your money before it loses its value. But not on a boat that costs thousands to moor, insure and maintain

 

[roblpm]

Well. We obviously aren't allowed to mention the B word but obviously B has added 20% to the price of buying in the EU.

Someone has mentioned prices up here 30% and in the EU by 10% seems to make sense!

I suspect UK boat prices have had a one off permanent boost at there is no supply from anywhere to replace the really old boats.

 

[Tranona]

Well. We obviously aren't allowed to mention the B word but obviously B has added 20% to the price of buying in the EU.

Someone has mentioned prices up here 30% and in the EU by 10% seems to make sense!

I suspect UK boat prices have had a one off permanent boost at there is no supply from anywhere to replace the really old boats.

The VAT rate on second hand imports is unconnected to EU prices. The number of secondhand boats that will pay VAT into UK is likely to be tiny and have minimal impact on EU prices.

More important is the impact on inflation on new boat prices, whether produced in the UK or EU. Although inflation has been running at between 2-2.5% for the last 5 years, this is a general inflation rate which hides a lot of industry or product specific inflation rates. So while prices of many products - electronics, some foods, clothing, textiles, shoes as examples have steadily fallen, others, particularly energy related, have risen at a greater rate. Boats are in that category and costs have been rising at more than twice that rate. Add to that for the UK the fall in value of the £against the euro and $ and you get the new boat price increases of 30-40% often quoted for the last 5 years. Currency is stable now, but as we all know from the headlines energy and transport costs (big components of new boat costs) are shooting up.

It would not surprise me to see new boat prices rise 10-15% in the next year (well over twice the typical forecasts of general inflation) with a similar knock on effect on the used boat market.

 

[Zing]

There is some pretty high inflation going on. I just ordered a new autopilot. I priced it pre-pandemic, but delayed ordering until now. The cost is up 20%.

 

[sails_02]

Now lockdown has lifted those middle class men are spending what they have saved on toys they want.

This seems about right, this article has some data, but the below chart seemed the most relevant.

Excess savings is the red line, over the blue historical average. I suppose it makes sense that most of those middle class men need to burn down that red line before boat demand goes anything near back to normal.

What will be very interesting is to note if there is any longevity to the ownership or if most new owners chuck it up due to an inflation pinch intersecting with the realisation that boats are a money pit! Not a great time to own a boat.

 

[dgadee]

No idea about working the market but I looked at a Sadler and bought a Seawolf 30. Very happy with it - twin keels and sporty if slightly 80s. There is an identical one near me (Granton). The owner spoke to me over the summer (I don't know him) and he was thinking of selling. PM me and I'll point you towards his club.

 

[Concerto]

The VAT rate on second hand imports is unconnected to EU prices. The number of secondhand boats that will pay VAT into UK is likely to be tiny and have minimal impact on EU prices.

More important is the impact on inflation on new boat prices, whether produced in the UK or EU. Although inflation has been running at between 2-2.5% for the last 5 years, this is a general inflation rate which hides a lot of industry or product specific inflation rates. So while prices of many products - electronics, some foods, clothing, textiles, shoes as examples have steadily fallen, others, particularly energy related, have risen at a greater rate. Boats are in that category and costs have been rising at more than twice that rate. Add to that for the UK the fall in value of the £against the euro and $ and you get the new boat price increases of 30-40% often quoted for the last 5 years. Currency is stable now, but as we all know from the headlines energy and transport costs (big components of new boat costs) are shooting up.

It would not surprise me to see new boat prices rise 10-15% in the next year (well over twice the typical forecasts of general inflation) with a similar knock on effect on the used boat market.

At the boat show most manufacturers were entering contracts with predicted price increases of 5% per yer, even if delivery is 2-3 years away. Some were fixing prices provided they had substantial deposits e.g. 40% immediately. New boat prices are certainly going to keep on rising for a number of years purely due to the materials and energy required to make them. It still makes sense for some older high quality boats to be renovated as they will cost less overall and be completed quicker, besides being better in reuse of existing materials rather than using new.

 

[Tranona]

. It still makes sense for some older high quality boats to be renovated as they will cost less overall and be completed quicker, besides being better in reuse of existing materials rather than using new.

This has been happening for some time, but is never going to be a big thing because the supply of decent older boats is by its nature limited by most being built in small numbers and the number coming on the market at any one time also small. Worse now the EU market has the 20% tariff against it. Also refit costs, particularly at the lower end of the market are getting even further out of kilter to market values.

Very conscious of this with my new boat which was cheap and I shall easily spend as much again on upgrades, most of which are not strictly necessary and only serve to enhance my enjoyment of the boat while I own it!

 

[Concerto]

Very conscious of this with my new boat which was cheap and I shall easily spend as much again on upgrades, most of which are not strictly necessary and only serve to enhance my enjoyment of the boat while I own it!

Been there and glad to hear you are joining the club.

 

[roblpm]

The VAT rate on second hand imports is unconnected to EU prices. The number of secondhand boats that will pay VAT into UK is likely to be tiny and have minimal impact on EU prices.

More important is the impact on inflation on new boat prices, whether produced in the UK or EU. Although inflation has been running at between 2-2.5% for the last 5 years, this is a general inflation rate which hides a lot of industry or product specific inflation rates. So while prices of many products - electronics, some foods, clothing, textiles, shoes as examples have steadily fallen, others, particularly energy related, have risen at a greater rate. Boats are in that category and costs have been rising at more than twice that rate. Add to that for the UK the fall in value of the £against the euro and $ and you get the new boat price increases of 30-40% often quoted for the last 5 years. Currency is stable now, but as we all know from the headlines energy and transport costs (big components of new boat costs) are shooting up.

It would not surprise me to see new boat prices rise 10-15% in the next year (well over twice the typical forecasts of general inflation) with a similar knock on effect on the used boat market.

I meant VAT on imports to UK which is now up by 20% on VAT paid boats. This cuts off one source of supply to the UK thus producing upwards pressure on UK prices. Just one factor but it all adds up!

 

[doris]

This has been happening for some time, but is never going to be a big thing because the supply of decent older boats is by its nature limited by most being built in small numbers and the number coming on the market at any one time also small. Worse now the EU market has the 20% tariff against it. Also refit costs, particularly at the lower end of the market are getting even further out of kilter to market values.

Very conscious of this with my new boat which was cheap and I shall easily spend as much again on upgrades, most of which are not strictly necessary and only serve to enhance my enjoyment of the boat while I own it!

Until now huge numbers of UK boats were sold into Europe, now they have a 20% tariff barrier. It works both ways.
Buying new from Europe, nothing changes.

 

[Tranona]

Until now huge numbers of UK boats were sold into Europe, now they have a 20% tariff barrier. It works both ways.
Buying new from Europe, nothing changes.

The sales to Europe from the UK were largely driven by the fall in the value of the £ against the euro in 2016. In 2015 I bought my boat at 1.36 euros to £1. It dropped to as low as 1.1 and averaged less than 1.15 until recently. That was more than 10% fall.

However as I pointed out earlier if there is free cross border trade prices tend to equilibrium over time - just that in the current environment the market is very distorted by geopolitical factors.

There is now a trade barrier for EU builders into the UK as they now have to certify new boats under the UK scheme which although has the same requirements as the RCD incurs additional paperwork which one importer told me costs (for a fair sized MOBO) £1200.

 

[TiggerToo]

Challenge for governments and central banks is to control the impact of Covid and its aftermath.

and, of course here we have the added self-inflicted challenge of IT that must not be named

 

[AngusMcDoon]

Friend of mine has been after a narrowboat for a while and it has been bonkers how quickly they've gone but hang on in there, I think things are slowing down a bit now - I've seen a few adverts with reduced prices coming up & as BurnitBlue says inflation is, well, inflating...

This weekend I received a full asking price offer for my boat within minutes of a viewing. The next viewing later the same day also produced an offer. I've not noticed any slowdown.

 

[Povremeni pomorac]

I wish I was in a position to buy a boat last year.

I worry that if I buy, even in a year's time when more are on the market it will drop in value almost instantly...

But I agree, it's difficult right now. I too am hoping that now COVID is hopefully starting to be behind us things will improve. Maybe everyone that bought a boat for COVID will realise it isn't really for them?

Me too