How different is it today?

[lustyd]

Just watched Sir Tom's video about a storm in the '70s

and got me thinking whether it would happen today (the trip, not the storm!). A lot of the YouTube channels covering similar passages seem at ease with crossing the Atlantic and generally have good weather with the occasional bit of a blow thanks largely to modern forecasting and routing.

The video starts off with expected fog which is fair enough, but then goes on with strong Easterlies on the nose for two weeks where Westerlies were expected, forcing them to heave to. Obviously 50 years ago weather forecasts were not what they are today and by comparison were more like short term guess work, so I'm not suggesting TC made any kind of mistake in the circumstances. These days you'd certainly have a quite reliable forecast for two weeks, and relatively reliable for 3-4 weeks so I suspect TC would have not set off with that expectation without a deadline given today's information. After the two weeks it turned into a storm, so unlikely to have set off with that on the forecast either. The story then develops in true TC style with a pair of dividers flying into a bulhead above his bunk and bits of deck getting torn off so well worth a watch.
Or maybe you would set off today, but with something like predictwind telling you a safer, more enjoyable route directly on your MFD?

 

[bdh198]

In Tom’s video we don’t know what a modern forecast would have been predicting at the time he set out for when the storm actually hit, so it is impossible to say whether today you would have taken a different route, altered your route after setting off as the weather data developed or postponed departure for a few weeks.

I don’t think there is any modern forecast that could be confidently relied on to accurately predict the weather in two-three weeks time, and it’s certainly possible to get caught out with more severe weather than expected on any offshore/ocean passage, hence why anyone doing a crossing like that will take all the necessary rough weather safety gear.

The advantage today is we have a better idea of what is developing with the weather and likely scenarios, and if something unexpected does happen after we’ve set off we can hopefully see if coming with a few days notice and take appropriate avoiding action.

However, I don’t think anyone planning a transatlantic in a boat that’s going to have a three to four week passage will look at the long term forecast before setting off and be certain they’ll have a fair weather passage.

 

[lustyd]

My point was more that he probably wouldn't have set off with a 2 week strong wind on the nose forecast, he said that's the reason they hove to. It's always possible a storm will blow up in two weeks time, but if there's a forecast saying your first two weeks will get you nowhere you'd stay in port. Personally I wouldn't set off if the long term forecast was promising a F10 in three weeks either, whether the first two weeks would be pleasant or not!
If the long term has nothing too severe, you're right you wouldn't expect fair weather all the way as weather systems will come and go and there's an element of luck, but we can usually see the big boat breaking stuff coming a long time in advance these days which is what got me wondering

 

[Adios]

Just occured to me reading another thread that fuel tanks are much bigger today. How much motoring range do transatlantic going boats usually have these days? Not sure how much benefit could be gained but motoring through a calm before the storm could be potentially useful. Can get 150 miles out of a storms path in a day.

 

[lustyd]

I think engine fuel consumption would be the main difference there as it's always been possible to load a boat up with fuel, although I guess state of the art in 1970s has less space to store it on the boat. I don't think it would make a huge difference though as ultimately you can't motor all the way sensibly. I think you're right though, Vagabond and I think Ruby Rose have shown a weather system coming (not quite a storm, but certainly a gale) and changed course by a hundred miles or so to stay in more pleasant conditions and I guess Internet connectivity now makes it possible to route mid trip in some scenarios

 

[Adios]

I don't know if he's right but someone was saying typically a boat now has a range of 400nm with a average tank of 150L. Contessa 32 had a 44L tank as standard and just checked its still 50L on a new one. According to random person online with the 20hp engine that was about 180nm total range which you'd not want to use up in one go. With a 400nm range you have a couple of all day motorings and still have 100nm spare fuel. The ability to quickly nip up or down to position yourself in the right place for the wind on an approaching system must make a big difference.

Even if the 1970s person in the sub 30ft boat that struggling to store water and food with no space for lots of extra fuel had modern weather forecasting they might have had minimal ability to take advantage of it.

 

[dunedin]

I don't know if he's right but someone was saying typically a boat now has a range of 400nm with a average tank of 150L. Contessa 32 had a 44L tank as standard and just checked its still 50L on a new one. According to random person online with the 20hp engine that was about 180nm total range which you'd not want to use up in one go. With a 400nm range you have a couple of all day motorings and still have 100nm spare fuel. The ability to quickly nip up or down to position yourself in the right place for the wind on an approaching system must make a big difference.

Even if the 1970s person in the sub 30ft boat that struggling to store water and food with no space for lots of extra fuel had modern weather forecasting they might have had minimal ability to take advantage of it.

Yes, with many / most modern boats you can expect to do a North Sea (at the wider Scotland to Norway end) or a Biscay crossing within the span of decently reliable forecast - normally pretty good for 5 days, provided you check not just main forecast but variability of the forecasts.
As that often means setting out in lighting winds, being able to motor 200-300 miles to get across and into harbour before the end of the forecast window is hugely beneficial.
Clearly different factors apply if departing, say, Falmouth bound for Rio !

 

[DownWest]

I just read Jacques-Yves Le Toumelin acct of his RTW in '49/'52. He had to rely on what was normally expected in a given area with a few forecasts when he stopped and by radio. Often, the expected did not conform ..
No engine, so just managed what came.

It is a good read of how things were then. He met people who remembered Slocum.

 

[lustyd]

Yes even more so going back further, I hadn't considered that one as the video was only in the 70s. Relying on the expected weather for the time of year rather than a forecast would produce a very different sailor!