HHA Email

Children, all sit down and behave.
We all have to learn to love each other.
Everyone is entitled to their own point of view.

For what it is worth, I believe the whole pandemic has been cooked up by the female race.
Probably the original email was sent by someone’s wife.
The message is all us sailors who spend the good spring weather playing on our toys, this year is pay back , we are all going to tidy up our houses.
 
Daydream believer said:
So what you are saying is, that if the Govt had acted a couple of weeks earlier, we could all go round coughing & sneezing & touching each other & the virus would not be transmitted between us any more & we would all be safe?
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Not at all. But if the NHS and PHE had acted in 2016 on the findings of Exercise Cygnus, instead of ignoring it and suppressing it, we'd have had testing in place now and our front-line staff wouldn't have had a lack of PPE.

Exercise Cygnus uncovered: the pandemic warnings buried by the government
 
Can one wonder how many reports like this are actually done & how on earth we could possibly take up the "recommendations" of every one of them.
Of course there will be a reports somewhere, warning of some crisis or other & of course someone will dig it up & say " we told you so".
Personally I would take that with a pinch of salt & say that the govt has to act in the best way it can. There have been huge pressures on spending in the NHS. If we had spent more money, does one honestly think that it would have been on ventilators? Or would it have been where it was needed (Or perceived to have been needed) most. ie on things like cancer care or getting waiting times down etc etc. We still would have not acted on hypothetical ( or otherwise) reports coming out of the woodwork every 5 minutes. This one happened to hit the button. But someone always wins the lottery as well :D
 
Daydream believer said:
Can one wonder how many reports like this are actually done & how on earth we could possibly take up the "recommendations" of every one of them.
Of course there will be a reports somewhere, warning of some crisis or other & of course someone will dig it up & say " we told you so".
Personally I would take that with a pinch of salt & say that the govt has to act in the best way it can. There have been huge pressures on spending in the NHS. If we had spent more money, does one honestly think that it would have been on ventilators? Or would it have been where it was needed (Or perceived to have been needed) most. ie on things like cancer care or getting waiting times down etc etc. We still would have not acted on hypothetical ( or otherwise) reports coming out of the woodwork every 5 minutes. This one happened to hit the button. But someone always wins the lottery as well :D
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Exercise Cygnus wasn't merely a "report" from some random body. It was a massive Government/NHS/PHE drill, undertaken to determine the country's level of readiness if there were to be a pandemic. The results were terrifying - total lack of preparedness, insufficient PPE, insufficient testing capability, etc. So it was suppressed, in order not to worry the public. That in itself is bad, but what's worse is that they didn't act on the findings and ramp up preparations, stocks of PPE, etc.
 
pvb said:
Not at all. But if the NHS and PHE had acted in 2016 on the findings of Exercise Cygnus, instead of ignoring it and suppressing it, we'd have had testing in place now and our front-line staff wouldn't have had a lack of PPE.

Exercise Cygnus uncovered: the pandemic warnings buried by the government
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I wonder how much of that is down to pubic sector types not being prepared to do the jobs they are paid to do? I have written reports that have been redaced by senior manages because, "they (the elected members) don't need to know" ..
Paul Cosford, the quango’s director for health protection, said a report “setting out the learning and recommendations” from Cygnus “was in the process of being finalised” but it never saw the light of day.
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pvb said:
Exercise Cygnus wasn't merely a "report" from some random body. It was a massive Government/NHS/PHE drill, undertaken to determine the country's level of readiness if there were to be a pandemic. The results were terrifying - total lack of preparedness, insufficient PPE, insufficient testing capability, etc. So it was suppressed, in order not to worry the public. That in itself is bad, but what's worse is that they didn't act on the findings and ramp up preparations, stocks of PPE, etc.
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Is it any different ( as an example) to the reports written years ago in the cold war about the threat of nuclear war when it was reported that the country was wholly inadequately supplied with nuclear air raid shelters etc? The various reports were all suppressed to avoid panicking the public. Now if there had been war, would you have been running around complaining that it had been suppressed & demanding that the govt should have built more shelters?
Before you say it is different- it is not really. As I said there must have been hundreds of reports over the years & it is so very difficult to determine which ones to act on.
Cannot really blame the govt when one particular item does go t..ts up. All you can ask is that they deal with it in a sensible manner. So far they have studied the "science". Ministers do not know the answers, ( they cannot be expected to) so can only take what they percieve to be the most realistic advice.
Once again, there will always be some professor or other, complaining that his advice was ignored, ( the media will always dig one up for effect) but in contrast there was probably 2 other profs offering alternative advice.
What is a minster supposed to do?
 
Daydream believer said:
What is a minster supposed to do?
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Possibly not base decisions on forecasts by Prof Neil Ferguson, the guy who told Boris that 500,000 UK deaths would result from cortonavirus. He has history for getting predictions wrong - he was the guy who wrongly forecast the foot-and-mouth epidemic in 2001, resulting in the needless slaughter of millions of animals. He also predicted that 150,000 people would die from BSE in the UK - the actual number was less than 200.
 
pvb said:
Possibly not base decisions on forecasts by Prof Neil Ferguson, the guy who told Boris that 500,000 UK deaths would result from cortonavirus. He has history for getting predictions wrong - he was the guy who wrongly forecast the foot-and-mouth epidemic in 2001, resulting in the needless slaughter of millions of animals. He also predicted that 150,000 people would die from BSE in the UK - the actual number was less than 200.
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WOULD die or COULD die. Once again one does not know the full story. I certainly do not. What I do suspect is that the media does love to take sections of a report & publish it out "of context".
If he was saying that by taking no action whatsoever .5 m could die - would one be likely to lay money down against that.
So the media then publish " prof says .5M will die". Well they were right. But in what context?
As for BSE- well there are certainly 150,000 nutters running around & it could be due to eating beef, or posting on forums whilst in lockdown- no one will ever know :unsure:
 
Daydream believer said:
WOULD die or COULD die. Once again one does not know the full story. I certainly do not. What I do suspect is that the media does love to take sections of a report & publish it out "of context".
{Snip}
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I have first-hand experience of the media doing exactly that. A former colleague in another institute gave a recorded interview. which when broadcast was cut at a point which had him saying something which I knew he would not have said without considerable caveats. The interview as broadcast cut him off before he could go into the (important) caveats to what he had said. As it was, the interview as broadcast nearly inverted the meaning of what he had actually said.

On a lesser level, I was once challenged by an interviewer because I refused to repeat some things that I'd said informally over the phone when the interview was being set up. In that case it was because I was a member of a government organization and was obliged to remain within an official viewpoint; something which the interviewer (a well known BBC science reporter) knew perfectly well. I did not disagree with the official position, but I could and did hold private opinions which reflected the lines along which the official view was likely to develop - as indeed, it has!
 
Daydream believer said:
WOULD die or COULD die. Once again one does not know the full story. I certainly do not. What I do suspect is that the media does love to take sections of a report & publish it out "of context".
If he was saying that by taking no action whatsoever .5 m could die - would one be likely to lay money down against that.
So the media then publish " prof says .5M will die". Well they were right. But in what context?
As for BSE- well there are certainly 150,000 nutters running around & it could be due to eating beef, or posting on forums whilst in lockdown- no one will ever know :unsure:
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It is a bit like Micheal Fish's famous weather forecast. He said "Someone contacted them and said "There is going to be a hurricane" and MF said "and there is not" at which point they cut him off. What he went on to say was "but that there will be a lot of wind", and it never got up to Hurricane strength ..... But that did not stop the media misquoting and pouring scorn on MF
 
pvb said:
Possibly not base decisions on forecasts by Prof Neil Ferguson, the guy who told Boris that 500,000 UK deaths would result from cortonavirus. He has history for getting predictions wrong - he was the guy who wrongly forecast the foot-and-mouth epidemic in 2001, resulting in the needless slaughter of millions of animals. He also predicted that 150,000 people would die from BSE in the UK - the actual number was less than 200.
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Can you cite the source for those comments?
 
DavidofMersea said:
It is a bit like Micheal Fish's famous weather forecast. He said "Someone contacted them and said "There is going to be a hurricane" and MF said "and there is not" at which point they cut him off. What he went on to say was "but that there will be a lot of wind", and it never got up to Hurricane strength ..... But that did not stop the media misquoting and pouring scorn on MF
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Oh, but it did! Sustained winds of 75+mph on the South Coast. Gusts as high as 122mph on the East Coast.
 
pvb said:
Oh, but it did! Sustained winds of 75+mph on the South Coast. Gusts as high as 122mph on the East Coast.
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According to Wikipedia, the met office claims that "technically" it was NOT a hurricane.
Perhaps, that might have been because the area of greatest wind was limited to a narrow corridor. The winds away from that corridor, although still very strong, were not hurricane strength. --- Just a theory
 
Daydream believer said:
According to Wikipedia, the met office claims that "technically" it was NOT a hurricane.
Perhaps, that might have been because the area of greatest wind was limited to a narrow corridor. The winds away from that corridor, although still very strong, were not hurricane strength. Although not being a weather man I could not be sure about that.
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And there was me thinking that "Hurricane force" on the Beaufort Scale was 73+mph.

Beaufort scale - Wikipedia

Remember too that the Met Office said it wasn't going to happen!
 
pvb said:
Neil Ferguson, the scientist who convinced Boris Johnson of UK coronavirus lockdown, criticised in past for flawed research

NoCookies | The Australian

Professor who said 500,000 Britons could die 'has patchy record'
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I do not intend to read everything, but reading the last link posted, actually dose post a different light on the claims which make PVB's assertions slightly misleading. Like i said in my post, one has to read his full report. He spoke about the problems of relying on "herd immunity" etc & he gave different figures for different options. Upon reading the article, his predictions are not actually as bad as PVB suggests. My original post in reply to PVB is supported by the third link.
Of course I have not read the 1st & 2nd links & they may say something to the negative & I may have to be corrected.
 
Daydream believer said:
I do not intend to read everything, but reading the last link posted, actually dose post a different light on the claims which make PVB's assertions slightly misleading.
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Read the whole lot. I'm generally not known for posting complete bollocks. Prof Ferguson has history for flawed forecasting.
 
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