Heading South

[nocturne]

Geared up for a passage from Milford Haven to Gibraltar and thence to Benicarlo (Tarragona area) on or around 16th Aug. Can anyone sugest any other good weather sites for long range other than met office?

Nicholson Jolina class 35' same age as me but looks better

 

[ccscott49]

www.weatheronline.co.uk www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/ www.ecmwf.int

 

[cynthia]

www.meteo.fr go to Grand Cote and look at the six day forecast. Enjoy your passage.

 

[MedMan]

I agree, but type in:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/sail_euro.htm

This will take you straight to the sailing index page and save clicking through a longish succession of links to get there.

 

[vyv_cox]

Long-term forecasting

I have seen statistics recently that show long-term, or even medium-term forecasting, to be well beyond current meteorological capabilities. After a study for a considerable period it was found that the accuracy was something like, from memory:
24 hours 80%
48 hours 60%
5 day 5%
Beyond this - forget it.

Otherwise, the German weather service is excellent, but for the most comprtehensive coverage and links see http://www.franksingleton.clara.net/

 

[ccscott49]

Re: Long-term forecasting

I agree with the forecast probabilities, but if you study the weather patterns over a period and look at what is coming across the atlantic, you can see if the weather is at least stable, which is what you are looking for. I will have a look at this franksingleton site.

 

[charles_reed]

As already posted long-range forecasting is an inexact science, mainly due to the branch-chain nature of the metereological process - however if you can read wefaxes you can get a very accurate picture in your mind and as the "what-ifs" unfold and thus keep ahead of the weather.
This does require some met understanding - either Mike Harris's "Understanding Weatherfax" or Beowulf Inc.'s "Mariner's Weather Handbook" are useful books (I've got a CD-Rom of the latter, e-mail me for more info).
The best sites I've found are the originals (wtterzentrale is derivative and trails badly) are:
In Europe:
meteo france at Toulouse
OWS Sembach
European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting
All the above are more comprehensive and easily understood than our own spavined Met Office.
In US
NOAA - marine weather site - probably best for giving you the 500Mb pix.

If you're looking for nice, written, accurate forecasts more than 6 hours old - well optimists are always disappointed.

(Accurate = >90% probability).

I've used all the above and have found that I'm able to derive far more exact forecasts than Portuguese and Spanish Met, even over 12 hours.

PS UK met Office are particularly grasping, inaccurate and annoying in Gib.